weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Go ahead, admit I nailed it yesterday.lol Close. We'll split the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah it's going to be a juicy storm but the 18z NAM seems awfully far south with where it reorganizes the mid level center based on the 500mb vorticity pattern. Honestly I think given what it did at 18z (not saying it's right) it make sense. It's the damned vorticity bowling ball that rockets out...and everything jumps with it again just like last night. The 12z GFS and 18z NAM are very similar at 500mb. This was just the NAM adjusting towards the others again. This is what I think, it's not a forecast. If you look through the last several days at different times each one of the "hit" models went through a period where they had the vorticity climbing the front edge of the low and each time that was wrong. To some extent all global models got it wrong too on this last one. The end result was we had the vorticity ejecting ENE/NE ahead of the m/l,and that's what the NAM just changed to this run. If the GFS or other guidance starts to roll that way today/tonight we're back in the same hamster wheel. What we have going for us this time is an apparent further north position to start and more moisture. The NAM has not had a stable run though. I think these fine tuned meso models like the NAM fall victim to noise much more easily. Meanwhile, the Euro is very high resolution but doesn't seem to have nearly as much issues with this. IMO Euro just had this same issue with the last system to some degree. Not sure why it is but models are struggling with vorticity maxes on the SE side of m/l lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Close. We'll split the difference. LOL, very diplomatic. Ok, we'll call it a draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Exactly, between ACK and Messenger, like I have been saying all week. The issue revolves around when the H7 low will close off. If the SFC low tracks like that you have to think the 700mb low closed off really early and is tucked awfully far NW... like over SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Honestly I think given what it did at 18z (not saying it's right) it make sense. It's the damned vorticity bowling ball that rockets out...and everything jumps with it again just like last night. The 12z GFS and 18z NAM are very similar at 500mb. This was just the NAM adjusting towards the others again. This is what I think, it's not a forecast. If you look through the last several days at different times each one of the "hit" models went through a period where they had the vorticity climbing the front edge of the low and each time that was wrong. To some extent all global models got it wrong too on this last one. The end result was we had the vorticity ejecting ENE/NE ahead of the m/l,and that's what the NAM just changed to this run. If the GFS or other guidance starts to roll that way today/tonight we're back in the same hamster wheel. What we have going for us this time is an apparent further north position to start and more moisture. IMO Euro just had this same issue with the last system to some degree. Not sure why it is but models are struggling with vorticity maxes on the SE side of m/l lows. I don't think you can use the last system with a gazillion vorts as the benchmark for model performance for this one. That's my opinion and it may differ from yours but this is totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You don't work outside. I hate the wind. It's my nemesis. climbing on lift towers today in the wind...so windburnt. I HATE the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If the SFC low tracks like that you have to think the 700mb low closed off really early and is tucked awfully far NW... like over SE Mass. Right, which is why the NAM is likely on crack. The bottom line is I think we all look fine, save for the cape and islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'll take it... is this the one we've been waiting for since Feb 2006??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Could you expound on that Will? I know I read ion ALB's AFD yesterday that the approaching OV trough ould help to 'capture' or pull the system West. Is this what you are seeing? You have an intense area of vorticity on the models ripping northeast from the OH valley...it tucks itself up right underneath the S coast of SNE but some of the models are trying to squirt the surface low much further east. The 18z NAM actually sort of had the PVA (positive vorticity advection) stop to halt and go east...I find that unlikely and possible convective feeedback in this extreme dynamic system. Its not uncommon to see a few runs like that when we have this type of setup. Unlike 2/10/10 last winter, we have a very potent system driving the PVA well into central/NE PA....which is a very good Miller B setup for us. If you loop the Feb 10 event last year...you can see the best PVA went almost due east through WV, VA, MD and off the delmarva. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2010/us0210.php Its still possible we could see some sort of weird setup like the NAM where it shoots E at the very last second, but that type of solution is more unlikely than a very close tucked in track IMHO. Even a NAM solution gives 90% of SNE warning criteria snows...but I think its too far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Great to get away from the board for a few hours and then come back and read everything. gives better perspective at least for me. Moderately excited and rather expectant here. Classic New England snowstorm coming. I expect to have a WSW Tues morning for 6-10. I will be very happy with that. 12+ would be great of course and who knows....but a nice solid storm the peak of which occurs in the daytime so I can be out in it, also on top of existing snow cover which makes is seem like more, with cold air following, overrunning/swfe on the horizon. Big snowpack coming and I high hope of being on the right side of my over/under number of 45 by Jan 31. You guys are the greatest, this board is something else. CoT FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 climbing on lift towers today in the wind...so windburnt. I HATE the wind. It's easier to just ride the lift. What the hell do they have a college kid doing climbing the towers anyway? You weren't at Sugarloaf recently were you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You have an intense area of vorticity on the models ripping northeast from the OH valley...it tucks itself up right underneath the S coast of SNE but some of the models are trying to squirt the surface low much further east. The 18z NAM actually sort of had the PVA (positive vorticity advection) stop to halt and go east...I find that unlikely and possible convective feeedback in this extreme dynamic system. Its not uncommon to see a few runs like that when we have this type of setup. Unlike 2/10/10 last winter, we have a very potent system driving the PVA well into central/NE PA....which is a very good Miller B setup for us. If you loop the Feb 10 event last year...you can see the best PVA went almost due east through WV, VA, MD and off the delmarva. http://www.meteo.psu...2010/us0210.php Its still possible we could see some sort of weird setup like the NAM where it shoots E at the very last second, but that type of solution is more unlikely than a very close tucked in track IMHO. Even a NAM solution gives 90% of SNE warning criteria snows...but I think its too far SE. Yeah right now it's not looking exactly like 2/10... but it's something that could go wrong IMO... if the PVA gets focused too far south and everything closes off and stacks underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ok let me get this straight tucked in,pulled in, 50 miles more northwest are these the hopes of inlanders for your snow at the expense of us coasties or is it looking good for us on the shore im getting the feeling that some people if they had a choice would sacrifice us in a heartbeat. the connecticut coastline federation for snow or ccfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's easier to just ride the lift. What the hell do they have a college kid doing climbing the towers anyway? You weren't at Sugarloaf recently were you? take it easy old man, it aint my first rodeo. I've been working lifts since I was 15. I'm honestly pretty much an expert by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I need the GFS to take it over ACK to get this awful NAM-induced taste out of my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I need the GFS to take it over ACK to get this awful NAM-induced taste out of my mouth. That's the wrong model to ask that of 3 days out....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Love these Gulf Lows. They always (most always) overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah right now it's not looking exactly like 2/10... but it's something that could go wrong IMO... if the PVA gets focused too far south and everything closes off and stacks underneath us. Yes, this is probably the only way we can get screwed out of this...but I think its rather unlikely. Even an 18z NAM verbatim is still a pretty good storm, just not a 12"+ job except for far SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I need some dude to take it from the BACK to get this awful Kev-induced taste out of my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That's the wrong model to ask that of 3 days out....lol.. Yeah, but it's the only one I've got til 00z. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't think you can use the last system with a gazillion vorts as the benchmark for model performance for this one. That's my opinion and it may differ from yours but this is totally different. Understood. Here's the 12z GFS and 18z NAM at the same time in frames one and two. The third frame is the old 12z NAM. If the logic goes the NAM would have a better time at handling this setup and it's moving towards the other guidance at 500....wouldn't we expect it's solution is potentially okay? I agree with you, it's been terrible for days. I'll look forward to the 0z, just mentioning what's been going on. In the end though WF the problem the NAM and the others had the other day was with one main vort lobe coming around the base of the low.... CRAP FRAME TWO Is the old NAM...1 is the new, 3 is the gfs same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ok let me get this straight tucked in,pulled in, 50 miles more northwest are these the hopes of inlanders for your snow at the expense of us coasties or is it looking good for us on the shore im getting the feeling that some people if they had a choice would sacrifice us in a heartbeat. the connecticut coastline federation for snow or ccfs lol You're over by HVN, you want a track 50 miles NW too...I think this might have more of an E/W gradient for SNE (more north/south once north of here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Billg just chucked a foot long weenie from Brookhaven to Taunton FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER MAJOR SNOWSTORM...THE SECOND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN JUST A LITTLE OVER TWO WEEKS AND THE THIRD FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT! SIDED WITH A 12Z NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE NASCENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SAT WV IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED BAROCLINIC LEAF AND COMMA HEAD...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM NEAR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF MEXICO...AND ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS. PROLIFIC LIGHTNING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE INDICATIVE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAN MOST MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH MAY FORCE AN EVENTUAL FARTHER W LOW TRACK...AND THE NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. EVEN SO...STRONG ISALLOBARIC N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS AS THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW MOVES FROM NE OF HATTERAS TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MONTAUK AND 40N/70W TUE NIGHT BY 12Z WED SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH ONLY THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND STILL IN QUESTION. WEAKER/LESS WET GFS SFC SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR LESS OF AN ISALLOBARIC LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT AND THEREFORE MORE ONSHORE AND BLYR WARMING...WITH MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT ALL THE WAY BACK TO COASTAL CT AND ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER LONG ISLAND. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN REJECTED ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS WAS ALSO TOO WARM IN COASTAL SECTIONS FOR THE LATE DECEMBER BLIZZARD. WINDS COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN NYC AND COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THEY WILL COINCIDE WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO PRODUCE TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WITH THE LATE DECEMBER STORM. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IS RUNNING HIGH...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH GREATER TOTALS WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP...MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. HWO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES COULD BE RAISED OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM PASSES E OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WED...TROUGHING LAGGING BEHIND COULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST INTO WED AFTERNOON...WHILE A BLUSTERY NW WIND CONTINUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You're over by HVN, you want a track 50 miles NW too...I think this might have more of an E/W gradient for SNE (more north/south once north of here). Just depends on how fast the mid level lows close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'll take it... is this the one we've been waiting for since Feb 2006??? Holy blank. So far out, 12+ at 40% really? Wow. Strikes me as high odds for that time frame but who cares, lock that up. We got this. In a SW CT year, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You're over by HVN, you want a track 50 miles NW too...I think this might have more of an E/W gradient for SNE (more north/south once north of here). Famous last words before my inverted dusting this wknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You have an intense area of vorticity on the models ripping northeast from the OH valley...it tucks itself up right underneath the S coast of SNE but some of the models are trying to squirt the surface low much further east. The 18z NAM actually sort of had the PVA (positive vorticity advection) stop to halt and go east...I find that unlikely and possible convective feeedback in this extreme dynamic system. Its not uncommon to see a few runs like that when we have this type of setup. Unlike 2/10/10 last winter, we have a very potent system driving the PVA well into central/NE PA....which is a very good Miller B setup for us. If you loop the Feb 10 event last year...you can see the best PVA went almost due east through WV, VA, MD and off the delmarva. http://www.meteo.psu...2010/us0210.php Its still possible we could see some sort of weird setup like the NAM where it shoots E at the very last second, but that type of solution is more unlikely than a very close tucked in track IMHO. Even a NAM solution gives 90% of SNE warning criteria snows...but I think its too far SE. Will, thanks so much for the response. The frightening thing is I'm actually starting to grasp this stuff.lol I read an awful lot so I guess it's starting to sink in through osmosis. It really strikes me that this system is not nearly as complex as most we've seen recently, not as many moving parts. Ever head of Prof. Robert Fovell? I've started a 4 DVD set he's put out, got it as a X-mas present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 take it easy old man, it aint my first rodeo. I've been working lifts since I was 15. I'm honestly pretty much an expert by now. Oh, so you know how to use a grease gun.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just depends on how fast the mid level lows close. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Oh, so you know how to use a grease gun.lol I also know how to swing the chairs to take out old men like you. Care to ski where I work? You taking some powdah runs Wednesday somewhere? Lets move this to obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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