Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Donny Baseball to the rescue

quote name='donsutherland1' timestamp='1294599365' post='254005']

Early afternoon thoughts...

1) The models have come into much better agreement on the upcoming East Coast event. One still wonders whether the NAM from western outlier to most extreme solution is still evolving more closely toward the Euro. Right now, my early thinking is that DCA/BWI have a good chance of seeing 2" or more snow and a possibility of 4" or more; Philadelphia will likely see 4" or more and has a reasonable chance of seeing 6" or more. NYC has a good chance of seeing 6" or more and could pick up 8" or more. Boston will likely pick up 8" or more. Northern NJ into southern New England has a chance to receive a foot of snow. I'll have my first estimated accumulations this evening. Before then, Memphis (2"-4") and Atlanta (3"-6") should pick up appreciable snows.

2) Seattle still appears to be in line for a moderate or significant snowfall later this week.

3) The last 7-10 days of the month will likely witness milder conditons in the East. But the the pattern does not appear to be evolving toward a full-fledged blowtorch.

4) The moderation during the last 7-10 days of the month probably will not mark an end to winter in the East or Pacific Northwest, as I expect that a colder pattern could begin to evolve beginning possibly as soon as the first week in February with the EPO trending negative again.. In any case my guess is that the cold anomalies accumulated over December and January will likely assure that Winter 2010-11 would wind up colder than normal in a large part of the East.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Donny Baseball to the rescue

quote name='donsutherland1' timestamp='1294599365' post='254005']

Early afternoon thoughts...

1) The models have come into much better agreement on the upcoming East Coast event. One still wonders whether the NAM from western outlier to most extreme solution is still evolving more closely toward the Euro. Right now, my early thinking is that DCA/BWI have a good chance of seeing 2" or more snow and a possibility of 4" or more; Philadelphia will likely see 4" or more and has a reasonable chance of seeing 6" or more. NYC has a good chance of seeing 6" or more and could pick up 8" or more. Boston will likely pick up 8" or more. Northern NJ into southern New England has a chance to receive a foot of snow. I'll have my first estimated accumulations this evening. Before then, Memphis (2"-4") and Atlanta (3"-6") should pick up appreciable snows.

2) Seattle still appears to be in line for a moderate or significant snowfall later this week.

3) The last 7-10 days of the month will likely witness milder conditons in the East. But the the pattern does not appear to be evolving toward a full-fledged blowtorch.

4) The moderation during the last 7-10 days of the month probably will not mark an end to winter in the East or Pacific Northwest, as I expect that a colder pattern could begin to evolve beginning possibly as soon as the first week in February with the EPO trending negative again.. In any case my guess is that the cold anomalies accumulated over December and January will likely assure that Winter 2010-11 would wind up colder than normal in a large part of the East.

The ec ensembles have a day or so of warmth as well...Maybe 2 days, but then perhaps an overrunning pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That would be something :thumbsup:

The NAM is going to hold serve, isn't it?

Slight variation downward in the amount of leading short wave ridging, which might mean a subtle E click with things .. .but it is well within nuance at this time lead so not really worth mentioning actually. Other differences do not appear significant enough to alter the outcome.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This should make our northern neighbors feel better. I like it too...

When I think Nor'easter this SREF is the picture in my head.

Changeover S/E of Bos, Mixing up and down the coast. Jackpot N&W of 495

Maybe just selective memory but remember lots of these growing up and not many these days.

post-1816-0-84159000-1294604959.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

heights at 500mb are lower, no?...maybe i'm just reading this wrong...

The closed H5 low then bowling out under us is pretty classic but NAM has shifted well east with the surface feature at least through 66 hours. 66 hour mslp is 39/70 but starting to wrap up. Kind of stingy on qpf and not in line with SREF signal so I wouldn't worry too much about this off hour run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

heights at 500mb are lower, no?...maybe i'm just reading this wrong...

Maybe by a DM or two... hard to say because it could have a smaller geopotantial space in the horizontal, but the core could be steeper in the vertical ...532 say, so not enough evidence there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Much further east w/ the secondary at 54. Dislike.

Note the difference in placement of the vorticity on the SE side.

Way SE with the LP placement/track.

Not much difference at H5 either.

It's actually quite a bit different. Take a look at the animation I posted. It just did the same thing this run. Instead of wrapping the vorticity up around the approaching 500mb low, it gets out east. It happened 3 times in the last 3 days.

The closed H5 low then bowling out under us is pretty classic but NAM has shifted well east with the surface feature at least through 66 hours. 66 hour mslp is 39/70 but starting to wrap up. Kind of stingy on qpf and not in line with SREF signal so I wouldn't worry too much about this off hour run.

The SREF's have been behind the trends for days.

This is exactly what I just highlighted in the animation and was a glaring NAM/RGEM error with this last system. In the end it was even an "error" with the globals because it snuck further east than forecast by them too.

I'm not saying it's right, but look at the vorticity on the leading edge..it's going more easterly than just 6 hours ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...