Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well Scott, as I've said before, I enjoy your analysis very much and certainly benefit from your insight. However, it strikes me that you derive a certain amount of glee in looking for ways that systems will fail. Nothing wrong with that, especially if thats what the tea leaves say. It just struck me that while your sig may be a joke the truth is often said in jest. Perhaps I should have stated things in a less accusatory way. When it comes to bias you are not likely to find someone more biased than myself as I always think there is a chance, however remote, for a system to deliver the goods. Sorry if I offended you, not my intent. That said, I still think this will produce here, models be damned. No worries at all kind of my bad on that one too. It all depends on how you look at it. I'm not rooting for a fail for you. I'm rooting for a win down on the Cape but unfortunately in this particular situation they are 100% related for the most part. You won't get epic trough snows out there unless there's not much of a coastal. I won't get a good snow event here unless the trough dies. That's not the exact case/cart/horse but it's one simple explanation. And no I'm not a big fan of Norlun setups. I think they often signal some model uncertainty in the physics of what's happening. Just flip through the NAM the last 3 runs for 48-60 hour total QPF and look at NY/VT/WMA/CT...and think back at how a day ago that max was over NYC. It's gradually swung NW N and now it's gradually diminishing. The models tried to do this with the s/w Friday for a day off and on. Mainly the NAM. It never had support and was always transient (storm being swung up). The GFS started to have some bagginess even last night in NC but I didn't think much of it due to spacing. Today at 12z it popped and it made sense. Then most other models supported it as the day went along and all doubt was removed. Well all doubt will be removed with the CMC/GFS rough support. But the solution we have now is a hybrid of suckiness on the NAM. Everything tracks in such a way that a lot of the forcing is killed off near you earlier, and it's not enough here. Moisture is limited. Ideally a track SW of you and south of me would be better for everyone as it would probably prolong some better snows your way, and allow more inflow and a further north motion here before it sags back south. Even if it all aligns properly on other models I don't think we see an expansive area of QPF. It'll be a tight comma head of nastiness and then kind of a trough as it rotates down. Maybe we can hope for a mid level setup out under us so inflow can improve for everyone. The NAM probably is failing outside of 42-48 but it's interesting this is a very similar solution to earlier runs that were a miss so maybe this is the lock....a bj for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've said all day how satisifed I am with this pattern.....do I hate inverted troughs, sure......but the end result will be a couple inches of snow, followed by a potential bomb and arctic cold. Nothing wrong with that. No one says a word when I makes positive statements like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I had "someone may get lucky with 20:1" in my original post, but edited it out before posting. It wouldn't shock me, but the band is weakening as it gets up here so I didn't want to be too aggressive. If it was me I think I'd go 15:1. Yeah I was just pointing out that area, because earlier it looked pretty dam good on soundings. Overall, I think ratios will be good, but obviously the bands that are well maintained will likely have the best snowgrowth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lol, So today at track practice, our coach was like "Well yesterday they said Friday was going to be the worst blizzard since 1978 and now its down to 6". So we should be allset for the meet Saturday." Where the hell do people get stuff like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lol, So today at track practice, our coach was like "Well yesterday they said Friday was going to be the worst blizzard since 1978 and now its down to 6". So we should be allset for the meet Saturday." Where the hell do people get stuff like this? Me. lol Okay--now I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 They usually have pretty good snowgrowth given the nature of the upper levels. I suppose if the forcing is shallow, it may result in flakes that aren't all that great, but these usually have at least decent snowgrowth..usually very good snowgrowth. Ok, thanks for correcting my misconception . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've said all day how satisifed I am with this pattern.....do I hate inverted troughs, sure......but the end result will be a couple inches of snow, followed by a potential bomb and arctic cold. Nothing wrong with that. No one says a word when I makes positive statements like that. Ray, I've noticed a marked change in the tenor of your posts. New girlfriend? lol Ok, I'm out too, 4:45am will be here in a heartbeat. Hope my early morning ski tour will be on a little fresh snow. The old track set is getting a little stale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nws in upton said 15:1 or 20:1 I don't live in the Upton CWA. I'd lean 20:1+ down there too. Could be talking out of my azz here, but don't these setups scream needles outside of good banding? No. You can get needles with strong lift too. It depends on cloud temps. We have H7-H8 temps in that prime dendritic temp zone. It's not like one of the SWFEs that pour the 10:1 ratios as temps climb aloft. Even in the weaker echoes we should be able to pull off dendrites. His name is Dendrite...who you gonna believe??? I'd believe a NWS met over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 New NAM is really about as similar as you'll have seen in ages with the 18z GFS. Sadly that's not probably a good thing for further trending but who the heck knows in this pattern. It's about 6 hours too late or fast depending on how you look at it. The 700 kind of jumps right over RI heading SE and does it just as it was previously trying to sling moisture north. So the moisture is racing north but the entire system is pushing east so it misses. Then stalls for a few hours and slings it back down. Close but no cigar. Let's hope it's the NAM. IMO between 51-54 there's fruitiness on the NAM that might be some type of feedback I don't know. Be interested to see the other models. At that point the 700 jumps from roughly Albany to off ACK near the heavier precip, 8h too but it's diffuse. Logic tells me this may be the NAM shearing out a little too fast and we can pull everything back. The sense of doom and genuine Irish pessimism tells me this solution will stick like a venereal disease. Ying and yang, c'mon other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No. You can get needles with strong lift too. It depends on cloud temps. We have H7-H8 temps in that prime dendritic temp zone. It's not like one of the SWFEs that pour the 10:1 ratios as temps climb aloft. Even in the weaker echoes we should be able to pull off dendrites. Thanks to you too...hopefully we can pull off 3-4'' with .2'' of QPF, though it'll be like watching paint dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'd believe a NWS met over me. Don't sell yourself short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ray, I've noticed a marked change in the tenor of your posts. New girlfriend? lol Ok, I'm out too, 4:45am will be here in a heartbeat. Hope my early morning ski tour will be on a little fresh snow. The old track set is getting a little stale. Nah.....just realized the "HECS or nothing" rants were getting old.....you folks know how I feel......time to give it a rest and make the best of what winter gives me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No worries at all kind of my bad on that one too. It all depends on how you look at it. I'm not rooting for a fail for you. I'm rooting for a win down on the Cape but unfortunately in this particular situation they are 100% related for the most part. You won't get epic trough snows out there unless there's not much of a coastal. I won't get a good snow event here unless the trough dies. That's not the exact case/cart/horse but it's one simple explanation. And no I'm not a big fan of Norlun setups. I think they often signal some model uncertainty in the physics of what's happening. Just flip through the NAM the last 3 runs for 48-60 hour total QPF and look at NY/VT/WMA/CT...and think back at how a day ago that max was over NYC. It's gradually swung NW N and now it's gradually diminishing. The models tried to do this with the s/w Friday for a day off and on. Mainly the NAM. It never had support and was always transient (storm being swung up). The GFS started to have some bagginess even last night in NC but I didn't think much of it due to spacing. Today at 12z it popped and it made sense. Then most other models supported it as the day went along and all doubt was removed. Well all doubt will be removed with the CMC/GFS rough support. But the solution we have now is a hybrid of suckiness on the NAM. Everything tracks in such a way that a lot of the forcing is killed off near you earlier, and it's not enough here. Moisture is limited. Ideally a track SW of you and south of me would be better for everyone as it would probably prolong some better snows your way, and allow more inflow and a further north motion here before it sags back south. Even if it all aligns properly on other models I don't think we see an expansive area of QPF. It'll be a tight comma head of nastiness and then kind of a trough as it rotates down. Maybe we can hope for a mid level setup out under us so inflow can improve for everyone. The NAM probably is failing outside of 42-48 but it's interesting this is a very similar solution to earlier runs that were a miss so maybe this is the lock....a bj for all. No worries here either. The NAM has a streaky track record for me. There have been times when it's showed me getting nailed and nothing much happens. Yet, other times it has shown a paltry QPF for the East slope and, lo and behold a solid thump ensued. In the final ananlysis this is a tempest in a teapot. Best case scenario maybe I end up with 10-12", worst case maybe 1-3". Overall I'm confident I'll exceed average snowfalll this season and that's a considerable amount. Again, sorry for the dust up. Think Snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I just scanned over about 30 pages of............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 21z SREF actually looks pretty decent: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah I was just pointing out that area, because earlier it looked pretty dam good on soundings. Overall, I think ratios will be good, but obviously the bands that are well maintained will likely have the best snowgrowth. I think my last substantial high ratio snowfall was 12/5/09 when I got into that lucky deform band that I really had no business getting under. I pulled off 7.4" with 0.28" w.e. and that was with a snow core...not a tipping bucket melt down. My Dec 07 norlun thump was 14.0" with 0.86", but that was with some compaction. I'll gladly take 5" off of 0.25" qpf and run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I like this little blurb from GYX. I don't know the mesoscale stuff at all up here but I am at almost 700 feet and on a ridge above and there are no mountains in between me and theocean. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE MRNG AND CONT DURING THE DAY AS THE LO LVL ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENS DUE TO THE HIGH TO THE N AND A DEEPENING TROF WITH A NEG TILT APPROACHING FROM THE W. BUFKIT SHOWS THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL MSTR FIELD WELL AND DEPICTS .1 TO .2 INCHES OF QPF DURING THE DAY BASED ON THE MET GUID WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...FOR THAT REASON WILL GO WITH THE HIGH POPS OFF THE MET WHICH MAKES SENSE VS THE VERY LOW POPS AND NO QPF OFF THE GFS/MAV SCENARIO. STAYED WITH THE BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID FOR TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nah.....just realized the "HECS or nothing" rants were getting old.....you folks know how I feel......time to give it a rest and make the best of what winter gives me. Oddly enough, I always enjoy your meltdowns, not as much as Blizz's implosions as they display a more schizophrenic flair, but still quite captivating. OK, now I'm really going to crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No worries here either. The NAM has a streaky track record for me. There have been times when it's showed me getting nailed and nothing much happens. Yet, other times it has shown a paltry QPF for the East slope and, lo and behold a solid thump ensued. In the final ananlysis this is a tempest in a teapot. Best case scenario maybe I end up with 10-12", worst case maybe 1-3". Overall I'm confident I'll exceed average snowfalll this season and that's a considerable amount. Again, sorry for the dust up. Think Snow!! It's been terrible (NAM). If I were sitting down on a beach in Aruba I'd be enjoying the run tonight trying to figure out what just happened. Is it the NAM catching on/up because the features got inside the wheelhouse of 36 hours but it's not completing the puzzle because the remainder is too far out (ie it should have been 30-60 miles west towards the end)? Or is this the NAM finally getting it right and we see all the other models cluster right around this solution and really for the first time all year we have no shift WNW at the end? With expectations properly adjusted for a .2 to .4 or so QPF type event out west I think all is good. It's just frustrating for me and I'm sure everyone out west to see such a decent hit gradually erode away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 From those crazy kids over at da BOX AS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES UNTIL WE REVIEW THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE AND LATEST SREFS. HOWEVER...UNLESS WE SEE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE...MOST OF THE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CONVERTED TO ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TO BE 80 PERCENT CONFIDENT TO UPGRADE TO WARNING/S. INVERTED TROUGHS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW...BUT THEIR USUALLY IN VERY LOCALIZED NARROW BANDS AND TOUGH TO SAY WHERE THEY SETUP EVEN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT A TYPICAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR OUR REGION. WE CAN SAY THAT OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WARNING CRITERIA SNOW. THE REASON FOR THIS IS BECAUSE OF SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND THEIR INITIALLY CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST SNOW GROWTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 From those crazy kids over at da BOX AS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES UNTIL WE REVIEW THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE AND LATEST SREFS. HOWEVER...UNLESS WE SEE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE...MOST OF THE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CONVERTED TO ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TO BE 80 PERCENT CONFIDENT TO UPGRADE TO WARNING/S. INVERTED TROUGHS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW...BUT THEIR USUALLY IN VERY LOCALIZED NARROW BANDS AND TOUGH TO SAY WHERE THEY SETUP EVEN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT A TYPICAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR OUR REGION. WE CAN SAY THAT OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WARNING CRITERIA SNOW. THE REASON FOR THIS IS BECAUSE OF SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND THEIR INITIALLY CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST SNOW GROWTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks to you too...hopefully we can pull off 3-4'' with .2'' of QPF, though it'll be like watching paint dry. It'll be fluffy enough that you may be able to clean off your car with a couple of sneezes. Don't sell yourself short Maybe someday I'll end up at NWS MQT.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 so bands get into ORH around what tommorrow 7pm or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 UNLESS WE SEE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE...MOST OF THE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CONVERTED TO ADVISORIES. As we thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 From those crazy kids over at da BOX AS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES UNTIL WE REVIEW THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE AND LATEST SREFS. HOWEVER...UNLESS WE SEE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE...MOST OF THE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CONVERTED TO ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TO BE 80 PERCENT CONFIDENT TO UPGRADE TO WARNING/S. INVERTED TROUGHS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW...BUT THEIR USUALLY IN VERY LOCALIZED NARROW BANDS AND TOUGH TO SAY WHERE THEY SETUP EVEN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT A TYPICAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR OUR REGION. WE CAN SAY THAT OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WARNING CRITERIA SNOW. THE REASON FOR THIS IS BECAUSE OF SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND THEIR INITIALLY CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST SNOW GROWTH. Pretty sensible and not surprising. Kind of fits the general thinking from most folks in here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM is a little north of the NAM track through 24 with storm 3 . 996mb in western NC steaming east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RSM4 please (sure skews qpf for my back yard on the mean) Not shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM is about 986mb just west of the BM at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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