CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I do think the GFS could tuck the SLP a tad closer just looking at the 500 maps. It looks like it escapes a bit too far E at 36h. Perhaps something like the problems models had with the Christmas weekend blizzard? Models had the surface low too far east compared to what the H5 maps projected it should have been all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 IF.... trends continue we all get the goods Ah....Gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 correct...there seems to be a misunderstanding as to what's behind the change. THe surface low probably being artificially displaced to the SE is giving some fits. As you noted the mid level centers are now sliding along or under the coast which eventually leaves NE winds at many levels near the EMA area...impresive and cold 850mb winds off the water at 54. There's very little inflow despite the mid-level track...if you look at 54h at H7, its like 10 knots...the baroclinic zone gets swiftly taken east long before this comes in so its an uphill battle. The lift comes from a combo of PVA and upper level divergence in conjunction with the inverted trough extending back form the escaping low to the east. If we get the upper levels more robust, then we might be able to pull it back even further west which would probably increase the mid-level inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 it looks to me the RGEM is trending towards more emphasis on this 2nd norlun compared to its previous runs the NAM has been a step behind all modeling since this mess all began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Lol...we need a revote on who the biggest is in this thread....I thought it was cpickles now I'm not so sure. It is essentially the same as the 18z run. You have an incredible knack for pointing out things as if they were common knowledge long after the fact. the 48h 0z has the low ESE of the cape. The 18z GFS had the low at the same time in teh Maritimes. Not similar at all. Both maps are attached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Can't wait to hear Ray's enthusiasm of a part II Norlun/CCB Hybrid monster delivering 90% of his QPF. Seriously though - hope this trend in the upper and mid level holds since I'm thinking T-1" is most likely for MBY from the first round. any shift in the other meso scale models with mid level features . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I do think the GFS could tuck the SLP a tad closer just looking at the 500 maps. It looks like it escapes a bit too far E at 36h. the energy that spawns the sfc low in the SE is decent and steers it out to sea. the trailing vort is what "pulls" the isobars back enabling another inverted trough. i'm not sure it will play out as depicted this way, but i don't think it's an asinine solution either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 IF.... trends continue we all get the goods I'd not be surprised to see a relative jackpot just about anywhere at this point, or a bust everywhere. But I've been called an idiot before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You have an incredible knack for pointing out things as if they were common knowledge long after the fact. the 48h 0z has the low ESE of the cape. The 18z GFS had the low at the same time in teh Maritimes. Not similar at all. Both maps are attached. They are both inverted troughs pointing at eastern ma. Net result is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 There's very little inflow despite the mid-level track...if you look at 54h at H7, its like 10 knots...the baroclinic zone gets swiftly taken east long before this comes in so its an uphill battle. The lift comes from a combo of PVA and upper level divergence in conjunction with the inverted trough extending back form the escaping low to the east. If we get the upper levels more robust, then we might be able to pull it back even further west which would probably increase the mid-level inflow. Right, the RGEM is probably the better case but we are really fighting a lack of in place moisture on tihs one agreed? We still need some nip-tuck to get it to track ideally for more of us. Pretty fascinating as the models played whack a mole in trying to pick the right s/w to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 the energy that spawns the sfc low in the SE is decent and steers it out to sea. the trailing vort is what "pulls" the isobars back enabling another inverted trough. i'm not sure it will play out as depicted this way, but i don't think it's an asinine solution either. Thanks. Either way this has been a positive trend for my area since this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 They are both inverted troughs pointing at eastern ma. Net result is the same. I'd agree aside of at 925mb, 850, 700, 500 and with the LP being totally different it's the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 They are both inverted troughs pointing at eastern ma. Net result is the same. I don't know what you are arguing...but the 00z GFS is substantially more impressive than the 18z for eastern MA. The low is further west...the lift is stronger and the qpf is much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Right, the RGEM is probably the better case but we are really fighting a lack of in place moisture on tihs one agreed? We still need some nip-tuck to get it to track ideally for more of us. Pretty fascinating as the models played whack a mole in trying to pick the right s/w to develop. I'd take this solution in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 By the way, temps across most of the Cape are in the mid to upper teens, we only had forecasted lows in the upper 20s. Chatham still in the lower 20s, everywhere east of there is either 18F or lower. Amazing cold. It would be amazing if we can get that northern stream energy to dig more and amplify more, not happening though with the fast mid level polar jet flow downstream of the H5 trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the energy that spawns the sfc low in the SE is decent and steers it out to sea. the trailing vort is what "pulls" the isobars back enabling another inverted trough. i'm not sure it will play out as depicted this way, but i don't think it's an asinine solution either. What's funny is what we could be seeing is a trend for this gradually trending more ne with time...such that eventually we have a norlun right where god wants them...in coastal ME. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Crazy Uncle kissing the coast of LI with the CCB - def further west than last run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't know what you are arguing...but the 00z GFS is substantially more impressive than the 18z for eastern MA. The low is further west...the lift is stronger and the qpf is much more. I think yesterday's 18z run was similar with a nose of precip extending west into e ma from an inverted trough. That's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'd take this solution in a heartbeat. agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'd agree aside of at 925mb, 850, 700, 500 and with the LP being totally different it's the same. Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z on the 5th? or today at 18z? Pretty sure it was yesterdays 18z (the 5th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Pretty sure it was yesterdays 18z (the 5th) yeah...I saw that above and deleted it..I was confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tought with the maps, I'm guessing the UKIE is west 100-150 miles through 48. Nice moisture up onto our shores at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Pretty sure it was yesterdays 18z (the 5th) Yeah I think that was the one. Not sure that it matters but whatever. As long as it snows n Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Water Vapor imagery appears to indicate that the trough is more amplified then zonal right now, the area mid level cloudiness over NC is coming more northeastward then ENEward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah I think that was the one. Not sure that it matters but whatever. As long as it snows n Plymouth. And Taunton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Phil, what is your temp right now, a PWS just to my north is reporting a temp of 17f FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah I think that was the one. Not sure that it matters but whatever. As long as it snows n Plymouth. Phil what you said just wasn't right. Not trying to be a dick, but it's really not much like the 18z GFS. There was a run of the NAM a few days ago along these lines but it was one s/w earlier wedged on the NE side of the developing trough. Like I said factually not right and it confused me and probably others. There were some faint hints of a low developing in TN and coming up last night but I don't think it's been modeled at any point recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah I think that was the one. Not sure that it matters but whatever. As long as it snows n Plymouth. At 60, the UKIE extends the .25-.375 contour back to the canal. Not sure if this is the inverted trough or a piece of the CCB..but it looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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