SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro is painfully dry here. What is the QPF for CLT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That's fine by me....for the Euro it's odd how from a line of CLT to Gastonia to Shelby we stay out of the heavier QPF during the entire event. Not buying it, but it's just funny how that always plays out Burger you also have to keep in mind that the 850s will be colder in our area that points south and west so even with less QPF we would still do pretty well with higher ratios. I'm loving this run because it allows for such a large portion of the SE crew to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Good disco here guys. The track will likely adjust several times during the next couple of days (and the Euro may even lose the storm briefly) but I would be very surprised if the track does not end up 100 miles or so to the north and with some increase in speed by the Saturday time frame .Looks to be a good hit for most of the deep south from Tx to Ga and then up the coast. As usual somebody will get the sweet spot while others may get the shaft, but that is winter in the SE for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What is the qpf for GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 and 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro show's snow for 48 hours in many locations. Totals for selected cities: AVL .63 HKY .36 CLT .49 RDU .49 ATL .99 CAE 1.17 I would think most of the ratios in NC would be greater than 15:1 given the sfc and 850 temps. so I would estimate the euro is printing out: AVL 8-12 HKY 5-10 CLT-5-10 RDU 5-10 ATL 10-12 CAE 10-12 I'd take even half of that! Would be awesome if that verified though. Boy did the board just light up! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Sorry for the newbie questions by what is 12z Monday? Is that noon? 12 Z = noon Greenwich mean Time, or UTC or ZULU In NYC, it is 7am EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Verbatim it looks like a snow to rain back to flurries on the back end. As the system shears out the 850 zero line retreats to the NC/SC line until 0z Wed. But it does look like a decent amount of QPF before the 850 zero moves north. I can't see soundings or other temp layers so it's hard to say. Cool thanks for the information. I was looking into this to see if this had the marks of a potential icestorm points in between the heavy snows and plain rains sandwiched in between some locations getting a potential sleetstorm to remember. The 850mb low (on wind barbs) has the broad spectrum of it well up and displaced from the SFC low early on up in Northern GA or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What is the QPF for CLT? Very close to a half inch. The half inch contour pretty much fallows the nc/sc line. For the one asking about gso, unfortunately 0.10 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What I love about this is that we have very very good models agreement this time vs the xmas storm- the GGEM, UKMET, the vast majority of the GFS ensembles all say a big time prolonged SE frozen event, I think that I may eventually have p-type issues, but with the CAD forecast it would be snow vs sleet and maybe ZR, but I doubt I get no snow here at all. Another great thing I am off the whole event and at worst colud take a very short road trip and see probably over 6 inches within 50 miles. Game on folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Burger you also have to keep in mind that the 850s will be colder in our area that points south and west so even with less QPF we would still do pretty well with higher ratios. I'm loving this run because it allows for such a large portion of the SE crew to get smoked. Oh yea I was just talking about visibly...not at all worried about QPF, but it's just funny how it always seems to happen on the maps almost like it's programmed to say, "avoid this area!". I just want to see those blue returns right over for once in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Very close to a half inch. The half inch contour pretty much fallows the nc/sc line. For the one asking about gso, unfortunately 0.10 or less. what i'm using show's .46 for gso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Very close to a half inch. The half inch contour pretty much fallows the nc/sc line. For the one asking about gso, unfortunately 0.10 or less. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I added up .51 here...but I definitely wouldn't be shocked to see this thing trend north a little. I actually really like the canadian's r/s/I lines as it does fit climo in a situation like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This turn of events on the models made my big toe stand up in my boot! thanks for the incredible analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Plus, sorry folks up in northern NC- you had yours earlier, its our turn.... Another factor- this could be a disaster on the roads with the ground pretty cold and cold air plunging in afterward- schools will be shut for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 While the current qpf for gso is .10, I think that will go sharply up as this will likely trend North. I wouldn't sweat the details quite yet as this is still very early and seldom is exact this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We do have to keep in mind this is 4 to 6 days away so a lot could change and it isn't a slam dunk by any means. History has taught us to keep our expectations and emotions in check but it is really hard to seeing this setup. We have decent model agreement and the pattern dictates any low should take a near perfect track for heavy inland snow. Half of me wants to jump out of my seat the other half says hold on..it's not here just yet lol. Man I am truly hoping atlanta and you get a historic thumping. I would truly expect one or two of the major models to waffle back to suppression city and then come back by saturday. IF that happens let's keep the cliff diving to a minimum and give it time to work out. Inside 48hrs is the time to go nuts or get worried. Will be a long 3 or 4 days ahead of us that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thanks for the numbers!! Updated QPF's thru 12z Wednesday. >.75" for pretty much all areas of GA north of a line from Columbus to Macon to Jekyll Island. Major...major...event. >.75" for all of SC and the NC mountains. >.75" for most of Alabama. And thank you for the numbers. I had .41" for the X-mas storm. My final measurement was 5" . Assuming a higher ratio as you noted, that amount would push closer to the 8-10" range. Euro show's snow for 48 hours in many locations. Totals for selected cities: AVL .63 HKY .36 CLT .49 RDU .49 ATL .99 CAE 1.17 I would think most of the ratios in NC would be greater than 15:1 given the sfc and 850 temps. so I would estimate the euro is printing out: AVL 8-12 HKY 5-10 CLT-5-10 RDU 5-10 ATL 10-12 CAE 10-12 and yes, you are correct Bo. . Will be a long 3 or 4 days ahead of us that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think people need to calm down a little bit. This is still a long way away and lots can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cool thanks for the information. I was looking into this to see if this had the marks of a potential icestorm points in between the heavy snows and plain rains sandwiched in between some locations getting a potential sleetstorm to remember. The 850mb low (on wind barbs) has the broad spectrum of it well up and displaced from the SFC low early on up in Northern GA or so. Euro 2 meter temps at hour 120 show the freezing line all the way into south georgia! Verbatum the euro has about a half a foot falling charleston before it possibly changing over to a very cold rain for a brief period of time. The surface freezing line though remains very close to charleston (just to the northwest and west) so it's possible it turns to FZ to the west of charleston and possibly sleet rather than rain. Regardless, the euro paints a major winter storm for charleston and the coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This starting Sunday or Monday? Id love to not have to go to work Monday morning so I can stay up and watch snow Sunday......through Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 thanks everyone for answering my question sucks for me but everyone to my south deserves a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 By the way guys, 12z bufkit gives KCLT 6".. If it's 6 inches of true, no melting snow (streets and all), I'd take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'd guess that the sleet line probably makes it up to CAE as their 850's go to 1.2C. How much furher north it gets is debatable but I doubt it makes it much north of chester Given the EURO has a slight warm bias, plus if that much QPF spit out may end up being able to keep that area from mixing problems I think, however, it also appears with such a slow movement of this low being depicted, it looked as if marine layer air was actually being thrown westward back into the Carolinas given the crazy 850mb thermal scheme at 144 hours. Another complex and complicated week ahead yet again. Ironically in a moderate to strong La Niña. The Christmas storm may have set the stage for some principal storm tracks for this winter until the pattern completely breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Oh yea I was just talking about visibly...not at all worried about QPF, but it's just funny how it always seems to happen on the maps almost like it's programmed to say, "avoid this area!". I just want to see those blue returns right over for once in the long range Burger I'm almost willing to make a wager by the time Saturday rolls around you and I will be in the blue for sure. The pattern is just so ripe I don't see how it wouldn't trend wetter for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What I love about this is that we have very very good models agreement this time vs the xmas storm- the GGEM, UKMET, the vast majority of the GFS ensembles all say a big time prolonged SE frozen event, I think that I may eventually have p-type issues, but with the CAD forecast it would be snow vs sleet and maybe ZR, but I doubt I get no snow here at all. Another great thing I am off the whole event and at worst colud take a very short road trip and see probably over 6 inches within 50 miles. Game on folks! The Cheez is sliding off the cracker...96+hr range and a "Game on folks! " Now I have seen it all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 what i'm using show's .46 for gso. You are absolutely right. I was looking only through hour 144...a good bit falls after that. Thanks for the correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If it's 6 inches of true, no melting snow (streets and all), I'd take that in a heartbeat. Most of it falls at night with temps in the mid 20's so it'd be a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I have learned to used Cheez level of excitement of the past several years as a temp of what might happen, based on Modeling.... The Cheez is sliding off the cracker...96+hr range and a "Game on folks! " Now I have seen it all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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