Pilotwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Pretty good chance of a flizzard if that up here, if that map were to verify. Plenty of time for change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Per Twisterdata, the GFS paints a lovely picture from about Cheraw-Bennettsville up into Central NC starting about 2 a.m. or so on Tuesday. Eyewall would love this one. I would urge extreme caution on those maps. They are rarely even close to being right. Sometimes they show snow when it's clearly not going to be any and vise versa. And even if it shows snow and it's clear it will be snow, the amounts are usually off. They are pretty to look at sometimes but aren't useful at all imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep The good way to describe the GGEM is that its the southeastern equivalent to what happened on Feb 5-7 2010 across the Mid Atlantic. Now before you jump off the deep-end with such a comparison, look at the 500mb setup. We are starting with a strong southern stream impulse that dampens out as it moves into an area of confluence. However, before it falls apart completely, the second shortwave behind stars to capture it and dig in. The stronger the initial shortwave, the stronger the second shortwave has to dig. Basically we get a major snowstorm with the first southern stream shortwave, but then the second shortwave captures it just in time to keep the fun going for 24 hours+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I would urge extreme caution on those maps. They are rarely even close to being right. Sometimes they show snow when it's clearly not going to be any and vise versa. And even if it shows snow and it's clear it will be snow, the amounts are usually off. They are pretty to look at sometimes but aren't useful at all imo. True, but it is fun to watch Brick react to blobs of color over his house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The good way to describe the GGEM is that its the southeastern equivalent to what happened on Feb 5-7 2010 across the Mid Atlantic. Now before you jump of the deep-end with such a comparison, look at the 500mb setup. We are starting with a strong southern stream impulse that dampens out as it moves into an area of confluence. However, before it falls apart completely, the second shortwave behind stars to capture it and dig in. The stronger the initial shortwave, the stronger the second shortwave has to dig. Basically we get a major snowstorm with the first southern stream shortwave, but then the second shortwave captures it just in time to keep the fun going for 24 hours+ Phil, thanks for all your input..... after reading your comments above I think I've decided I'm not going to be very productive the last couple of days this week at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I would urge extreme caution on those maps. They are rarely even close to being right. Sometimes they show snow when it's clearly not going to be any and vise versa. And even if it shows snow and it's clear it will be snow, the amounts are usually off. They are pretty to look at sometimes but aren't useful at all imo. For sure, Lookout, and I apologize if anyone was taking it as gospel. Just pretty pictures. And we're waaaaay too far out to call totals. thanks for the heads-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The two pronged threat is possible, but I would be cautious on all of this. The timing and strength of each wave is going to be impossible to predict this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 funny enough, this run shows a rare icing event for central georgia with subfreezing temps south of macon. I don't believe it has the right solution of course but interesting none the less. Yep, fwiw, the 12Z 1/5 gfs shows a very rare, major mainly IP/ZR storm (with some S) due to qpf of 1.25-1.75" as far south as about an Albany to Tifton (shout out to Dustin) to Waycross to Hinesville line in south GA on Mon 1/10. As modeled, the worst of this would be just inland from Savannah by ~25 miles (close call). I don't even know the last time that area got hit with a major IP/ZR on par with what is being modeled. It has probably been decades. The city of SAV, itself, hasn't had a devastating ZR since the 1/25-6/1922 and 2/25/1914 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The two pronged threat is possible, but I would be cautious on all of this. The timing and strength of each wave is going to be impossible to predict this early. Exactly... although generally if you are a snow/ice lover you want to see the first shortwave impulse continue to come in stronger. However, considering the difficulties of a phasing solution combined with the unusual blocking up in Canada, and you can see why the models have been all over the place the last couple of days. We aren't done yet with the flip flopping so hang on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know everybody thinks this and many have said it, but I never have, so here goes ... Your historical knowledge and referencing is incredibly valuable to this board -- I know it's Georgia-focused, but the perspective on the rarity of events or potential events is a great service your provide all us Southeasterners. Thanks! Yep, fwiw, that shows a very rare, major mainly IP/ZR storm (with some S) due to qpf of 1.25-1.75" as far south as about an Albany to Tifton (shout out to Dustin) to Waycross to Hinesville line in south GA on Mon 1/10. As modeled, the worst of this would be just inland from Savannah by ~25 miles (close call). I don't even know the last time that area got hit with a major IP/ZR on par with what is being modeled. It has probably been decades. The city of SAV, itself, hasn't had a devastating ZR since the 1/25-6/1922 and 2/25/1914 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know everybody thinks this and many have said it, but I never have, so here goes ... Your historical knowledge and referencing is incredibly valuable to this board -- I know it's Georgia-focused, but the perspective on the rarity of events or potential events is a great service your provide all us Southeasterners. Thanks! Last major icestorm to hit that far South in Georgia I'm positive was back in the early 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know everybody thinks this and many have said it, but I never have, so here goes ... Your historical knowledge and referencing is incredibly valuable to this board -- I know it's Georgia-focused, but the perspective on the rarity of events or potential events is a great service your provide all us Southeasterners. Thanks! I agree. Larry's detailed summaries of past events is right on the money. I wish I had his knowledge for this area regarding super details of where, how much, and the subtle commentary that adds so much flavor for weather lovers. Good job! Euro is running. I have to leave in 30 minutes but plan on taking the laptop. Hopefully we have something good to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yes its a little strong to say the least. It's a blend of the GFS and Euro, but overdoes the development I think. Just looking at the big picture, ridge in Baffin, 50/50 strong confluence, extremely cold air in place, and a strong southern wave heading east along the Guf, its hard not to see the writing on the wall. Major Winter storm, no matter how you slice it. The question is how it all evolves as there should be 2, maybe 3 parts to it. Foothills, I like that statement; whatever the models show....it's gonna snow one way or another!! Montgomery Burns, rubbing his fingers.....Excellent. Oh I know there's a lot that can happen, but it seems much more of a simpler solution to me for this storm. Cold + Wet = snow. It looks like we have the ingredients so it seems just like a matter of how much. I think I'm more confident with this storm than the Christmas storm and the phasing discussion/perfect timing, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thanks Beanskip and Foothills! I've had immense pleasure researching GA wx at the various libraries (mainly old newspapers) and enjoy sharing it to hopefully be interesting and perhaps helpful in forecasting these rare events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep, Dr. Larry's feel good winter elixer is the tops He has even made me feel right about zrain on occasion...and to learn to love climo, even those time when it hates me. If this present event is any indication of future events..... for a badly suppressed bit of moisture spitting out a few 100's for me the other day on Meteostar... things will be juicy ahead. I am nearing a half inch already, though it is 45 here now. Hope some of ya'll up north are getting some it frozen form....Rosie, NeGa. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Last major icestorm to hit that far South in Georgia I'm positive was back in the early 60's. Thanks Stormsfury! I am aware of a major ZR from 3/2-3 1962 that affected inland SE GA and inland S SC. Is that the same storm by chance? I'm going to check out old wx maps to see if the upcoming pattern is similar to that one. I'm also going to check out 1/25-6/1922, which also had a major wintry effect at CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 48 hour EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 NEW update from GSP, Winter Weather Advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Through 60 hours, the Lakes vortex is strong, maybe alittle further north than other models, and it has nice snow for eastern half of Tenn into the mtns of NC...quite a upslope event there I think. The ULL is in southern Cal, looks strong with 2 closed contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 at 72 hours the Lakes vortex is still there and very strong. We will need to see it relax some to make room for the southern system. BTW, this run has light snow across all of NC Friday with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 at 72 hours the Lakes vortex is still there and very strong. We will need to see it relax some to make room for the southern system. BTW, this run has light snow across all of NC Friday with the clipper. Looks like it's starting to relax at 84? I'm not exactly sure what I should be looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 at 84 hours, the Lakes vortex has weakend some and sliding east into western NY. Still snowing in the southern Apps and the Southwest system opens up just west of El Paso with precip over centrl and west Tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like it's starting to relax at 84? I'm not exactly sure what I should be looking for. Great Lakes PV need to pull up and relax the height field to avoid crushing the southern s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thanks Stormsfury! I am aware of a major ZR from 3/2-3 1962 that affected inland SE GA and inland S SC. Is that the same storm by chance? I'm going to check out old wx maps to see if the upcoming pattern is similar to that one. I'm also going to check out 1/25-6/1922, which also had a major wintry effect at CHS. I think that's the one I'm referring to. I know the last major icestorm that hit KCHS was the President's Day Blizzard in Feb 1979 which crippled Charleston. I was a kid when that happened and remember that storm well, with many branches snapping off trees which sounded like rifle blasts during the dead of night with no power for 24 -36 hours. I also think there was a major icestorm that occurred in 1961 that was down the GA/FL border but I would have to look in detail for more information on that one. Your historical knowledge of winter weather events is most valued! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's further south and slower at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Front end of the PV where the surface low is generated is pulling out fast. Much faster than 00z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like it's starting to relax at 84? I'm not exactly sure what I should be looking for. yep. I'd still like to see it weaker and furthern north. Boy the 96 hour has a strong neutral tilt over Texas, with a ton of precip in central and southern tex. Its extremely cold over the Tenn Valley and Southeast and east in General. -16 in ne Tn and nw NC which is up there with any outbreak this season. At 102, the vortex is off Boston and weak Gulf low off Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Front end of the PV where the surface low is generated is pulling out fast. Much faster than 00z.. And right on cue at 102 it's back to the 00z placement but just 12 hours slower. Lots of QPF in East TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's further south and slower at 96 not really, BUT the HP is nosing in better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 it's going to be a good run boys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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