georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm just amazed we're getting all these opportunities this winter. A lot of people were saying this could be one of the worst winters ever in terms of snow and cold (meaning lack of snow and cold) , and yet it seems like almost the opposite is happening. I guess that just goes to show you shouldn't put too much confidence into weather predictions months that are made months in advance. I really was very depressed back in the fall, thinking this was just going to be a horrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just saw the 3 hour canadian maps on Accuwx pro...here's my interpretation: 12z GGEM would be a crippling ice event south of a line from about Union to Lancaster. 1.25"+ of QPF, almost all of it freezing precip. The upstate and on up into the southwest and southern piedmont would probably see a foot or more of snow. I'll take that solution please ....seems like the Euro is a good down the middle road though and two runs in a row? Man almost feel like taking it to the bank right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah it does seem that way with respect to the tracks. It's funny that we went FOREVER without a classic gulf low and now all of a sudden they show up. It's about freaking time Also what's good about this is we have a cold airmass that comes in behind it for a few days so it will stick around for a little while. Plus with the relatively cold airmass ahead of it, unlike the last few, ground temps should be much colder. So there is a chance that we actually accumulate all that falls..unlike the last few where I know for sure we lost a few inches due to the warm ground temps melting the snow from underneath. Of course this isn't a certainty so I should probably not speak in absolute terms like this so I should add IF into the equation. But man oh man, if this is right, we are going to be sitting pretty my friend. x2 I have held of posting anything, but like Cheeze said, it's our turn and I would like to take it on this run of the EURO. Still have to tell myself it is 5 days out and a lot could change, so I am trying to temper my expectations. This would surely be a cliff diver if it was to go to Cuba. Here is to hoping the DOT has their work cut out for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Now is the time we start wishing the event would hurry up and get here. I really hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah it does seem that way with respect to the tracks. It's funny that we went FOREVER without a classic gulf low and now all of a sudden they show up. It's about freaking time Also what's good about this is we have a cold airmass that comes in behind it for a few days so it will stick around for a little while. Plus with the relatively cold airmass ahead of it, unlike the last few, ground temps should be much colder. So there is a chance that we actually accumulate all that falls..unlike the last few where I know for sure we lost a few inches due to the warm ground temps melting the snow from underneath. Of course this isn't a certainty so I should probably not speak in absolute terms like this so I should add IF into the equation. But man oh man, if this is right, we are going to be sitting pretty my friend. Yeah I think this is the biggest difference between this storm and EVERY OTHER STORM to hit Charlotte the last 5 years has been the marginal temps. Always starts snowing when its 35-36 degrees and it falls to right at 32. It always melts as it falls and the only way we get accumulation is when it snows so hard that it accumulates faster than it can melt. This storm seems like the cold is nice and entrenched so when it starts falling, it'll stick immediately and accumulates. That's huge for me. If I can get just 4 inches of pure accumulations that makes EVERYTHING white, I'm golden. Lots a time for this to take a nose dive, but again......the good ones you usually see from several days out; plus the pattern is ripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 x2 I have held of posting anything, but like Cheeze said, it's our turn and I would like to take it on this run of the EURO. Still have to tell myself it is 5 days out and a lot could change, so I am trying to temper my expectations. This would surely be a cliff diver if it was to go to Cuba. Here is to hoping the DOT has their work cut out for them! Can we just freeze this run of the Euro and save it until Sunday ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Now is the time we start wishing the event would hurry up and get here. I really hope it holds. The next 5 days are going to seem like 5 years I'm afraid. Waiting is just so agonizing at times. I wish I could just fall into a deep sleep and wake up 5 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Seems like you never see solutions like this in the 24 hour - 48 hour time frame. But they sure are plentiful 5 days or more out. I like the model convergence on a winter storm for the SE, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 BTW the NE and MA gotta be hating this right now they get totally screwed while many would be in the snow of their lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You beat me to it Lookout... I was going to say add another .1 to .15 to those totals because of the long duration. This run is just too good to be true but man on man I'll be saying an extra long prayer tonight in hopes it pans out! hopefully it will produce what it says, During Christmas week we were suppose to get 12 or more inches. Then it lost the storm then we did get 7inches. Not complaining just wish it would verify one time for a big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What impresses me also is how slow it is. It isn't one of these that move at 50 or 60 mph. So if the moisture is there, someone is going to get hammered. I wouldn't be shocked to see a 10 inch sweet spot somewhere. It's nice indeed the cold air is plentiful, even for central areas of alabama, ga, and sc. I like also how it has a trough lingering back into the western carolinas too..very similar to the last one which enhanced totals here. Fwiw..my backyard would probably be somewhere around 0.75 but the 1 inch contour isn't far away Correction, it has another 0.10 to 0.25 after hour 144...so that should put me at an inch or so. Unreal. Seeing IMBY comments from people who offer no clue as to just where their back yard actually is, is not uncommon....but I'm surprised to see you doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hopefully it will produce what it says, During Christmas week we were suppose to get 12 or more inches. Then it lost the storm then we did get 7inches. Not complaining just wish it would verify one time for a big one Yeah, but I lose all credibility when I complain about only getting 7 or 8 inches at Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 BTW the NE and MA gotta be hating this right now they get totally screwed while many would be in the snow of their lives. Those folks have gotten plenty the past 2 years-no tears shed here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just saw the 3 hour canadian maps on Accuwx pro...here's my interpretation: 12z GGEM would be a crippling ice event south of a line from about Union to Lancaster. 1.25"+ of QPF, almost all of it freezing precip. The upstate and on up into the southwest and southern piedmont would probably see a foot or more of snow. Posted below in the banter thread, but haven't gotten any responses. As a Accuwx subscriber, would you be so kind to offer your advice? Thinking about signing up for a Accuweather Pro subscription. I was a subscriber years ago when it first came out then dropped it when the subscription price went up threefold. Felt it wasn't worth reading for just reading JB's disco since most other products were available for free elsewhere. With the existing pattern setting up, I'm thinking about re-upping. I see it now gives access to the EMCF. How much more, if any, data is available than what can be found elsewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 They have all have come back North west before its all said and done. Too far out to get excited. This is true, which is why I am excited. If anyone in eastern TN or southwest VA isn't excited they just don't know how this typically works. Two things 1. Potential for a minor shift to the north with the actual low and more importantly (for me). and even if number one DOESN'T happen........ 2. A more robust precip shield further north than depicted May not happen every time, but if we are talking percentages, I'd say it's between 70-80% of the time this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 ECMWF is again the two part solution, southern stream s/w damps out as it comes east thus less precip the further east you get, however the broad trough over the Rockies dives in Monday and causes precip redevelopment over the interior Carolinas and pulls the surface low associated with the southern stream system back towards the coast so to speak with re-development right off the SE coast. A very interesting storm setup for sure. I am always afraid of these setups as I was scarred for life by the Dec 2-3 2000 nonevent in Raleigh where we were relying on northern stream energy to dive in and save the day at the last minute. Even still this is a different setup and the model agreement is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just saw the 3 hour canadian maps on Accuwx pro...here's my interpretation: 12z GGEM would be a crippling ice event south of a line from about Union to Lancaster. 1.25"+ of QPF, almost all of it freezing precip. The upstate and on up into the southwest and southern piedmont would probably see a foot or more of snow. Jeremy, I'm putting you in charge of the committee to find my foot of snow for this storm. Report back to me at 1800 hrs. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Those folks have gotten plenty the past 2 years-no tears shed here.... And they've already had a lot this winter. I don't see why they would be upset if some southerners got in on the fun. They get more than their fair share of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think people need to calm down a little bit. This is still a long way away and lots can change. No you didn't!!! I just threw up in my mouth a little when I read YOU saying this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Jeremy, I'm putting you in charge of the committee to find my foot of snow for this storm. Report back to me at 1800 hrs. Thanks. Yes, I'd like a copy of that report too. Stat! Sit rep! Pronto, and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Interesting. The Feb 12 dropped 8" on storm while I got 1" downtown. The marine layer killed me then so I have to keep a lid on my expectations for this one. You're giving me some hope though, looks like it'll be a matter of if we get from freezing rain to rain or some snow, should be fun to watch. Yeah, similar here in myrtle but I had 3" 2 miles inland from the ocean back in the feb storm SST's up here generally run 10-15 degrees colder in winter. For instance MB Springmaid pier water temps are currently ~45 where I saw Folly beach water temps are ~60. Marine layer isnt as big of a deal up here hopefully. either way, bring it, been awhile since the coast of SC has been hammered by a good winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Seeing IMBY comments from people who offer no clue as to just where their back yard actually is, is not uncommon....but I'm surprised to see you doing that. Most know where I am already For those who don't, i'm along the madison/oglethorpe county border about 30 miles east-northeast of athens. 270 User(s) are reading this topic 140 members, 119 guests, 11 anonymous users On a related note, What a difference compared to a few years ago when it was only a dozen or two of us. The southeast group has really exploded. Yes we have had some problems with weenies and so forth but we have really been a well behaved group compared to other regions when they are active. Please keep it up folks. But a reminder, please limit the "how much for my backyard" questions. Most of the time you can get a reasonable if not accurate answer to your question if you just read the thread. In fact, most questions you new members have are often answered already. Also, please refrain from the one line posts/comments that don't add to the discussion. There is another thread for that sort of stuff and things like that will be deleted in this thread. Considering what looks to be a active few days here, we will once again likely go into storm mode and be more strict with this stuff. And remember, repeat offenders will be given a timeout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Posted below in the banter thread, but haven't gotten any responses. As a Accuwx subscriber, would you be so kind to offer your advice? Thinking about signing up for a Accuweather Pro subscription. I was a subscriber years ago when it first came out then dropped it when the subscription price went up threefold. Felt it wasn't worth reading for just reading JB's disco since most other products were available for free elsewhere. With the existing pattern setting up, I'm thinking about re-upping. I see it now gives access to the EMCF. How much more, if any, data is available than what can be found elsewhere? I actually really like it...maps are out a little later than sv but i'm a big fan of the Extracted data on the euro. There's also 3 hour Canadian maps and the JMA is there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No you didn't!!! I just threw up in my mouth a little when I read YOU saying this!! I just have learned not to get excited until maybe 48 hours before the event. I learned the hard way that you can't put too much confidence in models this far away. We'll see where we stand in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Jeremy, I'm putting you in charge of the committee to find my foot of snow for this storm. Report back to me at 1800 hrs. Thanks. I've got to find my own foot of snow...been since 88 here too. I'll do my best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Most know where I am already For those who don't, i'm along the madison/oglethorpe county border about 30 miles east-northeast of athens. Are you near Comer ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I actually really like it...maps are out a little later than sv but i'm a big fan of the Extracted data on the euro. There's also 3 hour Canadian maps and the JMA is there too. Thanks so much. The extracted euro data is what I was hoping for. Off to register! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 129 PM EST WED JAN 05 2011 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 08 2011 - 12Z WED JAN 12 2011 ...A COLD PATTERN FOR THE NATION WITH STORM POTENITAL OVER THE US SRN TIER AND UP THE EAST COAST... STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE CONUS TO REMAIN UNDER BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...CORRESPONDING TO RIDGING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AT HIGHER LATITUDE. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME SHIFTING IN EMPHASIS WITH THE HIGH LATITUDE RIDGING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND OVER CANADA AND A STRENGTHENING TREND OVER/NEAR ALASKA. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOMEWHAT MORE PACIFIC FLOW REACHING THE WRN CONUS. LATEST AND RECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO THRU THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE ARE PERSISTENT DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES WITH THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF DAY 3 SAT NWRN CONUS/SWRN CANADA ENERGY AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEST/PLAINS SUN/MON...WHICH IN TURN AFFECT A TROF/CLOSED LOW ENTERING THE SWRN CONUS/NWRN MEXICO UNDERNEATH FRI/SAT LEADING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE. AFTER GUIDANCE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER/MORE AMPLIFIED WITH W-CENTRAL CONUS FLOW IN THE PRIOR 24 HOURS...SOLUTIONS NOW REFLECT SOME MODERATION AWAY FROM THAT IDEA AND AS A RESULT THE LEADING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MORE SUPPRESSED AS REFLECTED IN MOST GUIDANCE FROM BEFORE YESTERDAY. THE 00Z GFS/CMC ARE THE LEAST AMPLIFIED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE CMC HAS AN OUTLIER EVOLUTION OVER THE ERN PAC WHICH ARGUES FOR DISCOUNTING ITS SOLUTION. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY OSCILLATION IN GUIDANCE...AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION COMPOSED OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO BE THE BEST OPTION THRU AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE 00Z GEFS MEAN JOINED THE ECMWF MEAN ALOFT AND IN SHOWING ORGANIZED WRN ATLANTIC SURFACE CYCLOGENSIS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. TYPICAL DIFFICULTY THAT GUIDANCE HAS WITH IMPORTANT DETAILS BEYOND 2-3 DAYS WOULD RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO CLUSTERS AS A STARTING POINT...BUT THE UPDATED HPC PROGS DID ADJUST THE LOW SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD THE COAST CONSIDERING TRENDS FROM THE 06Z GFS/DGEX AND THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AS PER POTENTIAL MID-UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE 06Z GEFS/YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT WERE USED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF TO DERIVE THE HPC BLENDED SOLUTION FOLLOW THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...LEAVING LINGERING UNCERTAINTY FOR WHAT COULD BE A ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER COASTAL STORM. AS FOR OTHER FEATURES OVERNIGHT...THERE WAS GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER/SHARPER THAN CONSENSUS WITH ITS SURFACE TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST AS OF EARLY DAY 3 SAT. THE INITIAL 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF MEAN BLEND ACCOUNTS WELL FOR THE NON-00Z GFS PREFERENCE HERE. MEANWHILE ALONG THE WEST COAST THE CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS DEEP SYSTEM NEARING THE PAC NW COAST BY EARLY DAY 7 WED. ASIDE FROM TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE ON A MERE WARM FRONT NEARING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE FCST. A COMPROMISE AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND SLOWER ECMWF PROVIDED TIMING NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. OVERALL...WE SEE MINIMAL COMPELLING REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY ADJUST HPC PROG CONTINUITY AFTER CONSIDERATION OF NEWER 12Z MODEL AND ENSEMNLE GUIDANCE THAT SHOW LIMITED NEW SOLUTION CLUSTERING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just have learned not to get excited until maybe 48 hours before the event. I learned the hard way that you can't put too much confidence in models this far away. We'll see where we stand in 3 days. Turning over a new leaf, huh? Oooooooookay.... This is 4 pretty good runs for the EURO now. Mr. Bob, now that I am a bit closer to the CHA area than ATL, would you care to take a WAG at the ratios for S TN and N GA? (grain of salt taken well in advance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Turning over a new leaf, huh? Oooooooookay.... This is 4 pretty good runs for the EURO now. Mr. Bob, now that I am a bit closer to the CHA area than ATL, would you care to take a WAG at the ratios for S TN and N GA? (grain of salt taken well in advance) Actually, yeah. That was my new year's resolution : to not get excited about snow or ice 4 or 5 days away. And you say you are closer to CHA than ATL ? Mapquest says you are exactly 60 miles from both cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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