dryslot Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I don't think anything has changed since yesterday regarding the end of the week system. Nothing really has changed other then some models are showing different scenarios for certain folks which is a concern of mine........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Euro and NAM trying to sneak some precip up here late today and this evening. yeah, 12Z nam showing the same thing.. maybe a coating at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Nothing really has changed other then some models are showing different scenarios for certain folks which is a concern of mine........ At this range, deterministic solutions are almost useless. Ensemble means are basically identical. Actually the 00z runs last night were pretty good even for deterministic solutions. The setup though requires a PV getting underneath New England which is tough to accomplish. Each run that tries to do that will be another step toward a favorable solution, but we have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 At this range, deterministic solutions are almost useless. Ensemble means are basically identical. Actually the 00z runs last night were pretty good even for deterministic solutions. The setup though requires a PV getting underneath New England which is tough to accomplish. Each run that tries to do that will be another step toward a favorable solution, but we have a long way to go. If it was able to get further south lets say, Would there be a chance of it having some interaction with the SW moving off the coast from the south with some phaseing or would that just muddy up the waters more in this situation...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 If it was able to get further south lets say, Would there be a chance of it having some interaction with the SW moving off the coast from the south with some phaseing or would that just muddy up the waters more in this situation...... I think we'd prefer to leave any southern stream out of this...but if it did get involved a bit and was timed correctly, then it would likely enhance everything. But the risk obviously is bad timing and having it screw up a clean redevelopment of the primary....we don't want that obviously. The "safest" scenario is to just leave it out and let the dominating northern stream do the work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 It seems we should def be interested. HPC prelim graphics have a a deepening low off the mid atlantic 992 that moves right near the benchmark towards downeast ME 980. But as has been said by the mets, like all redevelopers, it is dicey. Seems to be a good signal for NE. Perhaps a bit like last week, a strong signal 7 days out, looks less good on the models for a day or two, then comes back strong. Looking at seasonal trends and La Nina probably a decent shot at the northern stream verifying strong. Wondering if there is still a mechanism to slow it down? Yesterday was talk of a temporary stall near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Euro and NAM trying to sneak some precip up here late today and this evening. AIT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think we'd prefer to leave any southern stream out of this...but if it did get involved a bit and was timed correctly, then it would likely enhance everything. But the risk obviously is bad timing and having it screw up a clean redevelopment of the primary....we don't want that obviously. The "safest" scenario is to just leave it out and let the dominating northern stream do the work. That was the answer i was hoping you would say, I for one would rather see it stay more towards the Miller B scenario, Screwed to many times up here with storms coming north out of the southern stream, They are either occluding from early development or whiff ENE before making our lat....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 I don't think anything has changed since yesterday regarding the end of the week system. Yeah I was surprised to see some of the good posters. down on the Friday snowstorm. At the least we get 3-6..at the most 6-12 or more NE..What's wrong with either one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 several inches of snow for everyone this first week of 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah I was surprised to see some of the good posters. down on the Friday snowstorm. At the least we get 3-6..at the most 6-12 or more NE..What's wrong with either one? Also, northern stream storms and miller b's don't have to imply 12"+ totals. Most of them are modest events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Also, northern stream storms and miller b's don't have to imply 12"+ totals. Most of them are modest events. To be honest I'd prefer a modest snowfall over some huge storm that crushes one area. Also means less wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Unlike many here (it seems), I'll take bitterly cold even if there's no snow. I like the winter weather. Extreme snow, extreme cold. All good with me (the former of course being top preference). As long as it approaches or stays below freezing. My dog is a mess from wet side of the road soot encrusted piles. We need to freeze them and re-snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Also, northern stream storms and miller b's don't have to imply 12"+ totals. Most of them are modest events. Given the choice between 4-8 with little wind and 18-24 with blizzard conds...I'll take the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 We are really close to getting the southern stream involved and getting one gigantic bomb out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Given the choice between 4-8 with little wind and 18-24 with blizzard conds...I'll take the latter. I'd take 18-24" in a heartbeat, but it seems like some expect a monster event. I don't see that right now, but we are 6 days away and things could certainly change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Given the choice between 4-8 with little wind and 18-24 with blizzard conds...I'll take the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 00z NOGAPS is the model carrying the HECS torch in tonight's suite. I thought that was interesting that of all these muted solutions the one model that can't see amplitude if it poked it in the eyes is the one model with the most cohesively deeply developed solution off the 00z. Toss the 00z Euro - I don't care what the verification scores are, that is terrible run that doesn't make any physical sense out west and it hugely distorts what happens in the east. In any event, we should soon be entering modeling black out anyway, where they all drop the signal and opt for beach weather for a day and half during which time people find clever ways to insult one another within the confines of forum policies for decorum. ...only to have it come back hugely, where everyone gets whiplashed into this bi-polar manic elation craze. This is what happens when you let the weather guide your emotions - but people still let do so. Fascinating. 100% chance of all that happening; 50% chance of a significant storm; 10% chance it will be memorable....? sounds reasonable enough for D7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'd take 18-24" in a heartbeat, but it seems like some expect a monster event. I don't see that right now, but we are 6 days away and things could certainly change. 4-8 is reasonable for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS wants to give some qpf as well late today and this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS on board with bringing some light snow into the area later tonight .. lock it up.. nice little coating to cover all those bare spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'd take 18-24" in a heartbeat, but it seems like some expect a monster event. I don't see that right now, but we are 6 days away and things could certainly change. Who is expecting a monster event? Nobody is going crazy ... yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS wants to give some qpf as well late today and this evening. you think we see an afternoon update? specially for EMA/cape and Islands?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Who is expecting a monster event? Nobody is going crazy ... yet. Well based on some of yesterday's posts it sounded like people were hoping that the northern stream would bring a huge event. Ok, it's mainly Ray..lol. It still could end up as something memorable..I mean we are 6 days out. If the gfs ensembles are right...it's a biggie. However, nobody should be disappointed if it's a lgt-mdt event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 gfs even gives me snow tonight! you think we see an afternoon update? specially for EMA/cape and Islands?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Also, northern stream storms and miller b's don't have to imply 12"+ totals. Most of them are modest events. Yeah we get a lot of 3-6 or 4-8 type events from these...sometimes 6-12. Obviously if we get this full thing getting underneath New England, then it could be a much larger event. Long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 you think we see an afternoon update? specially for EMA/cape and Islands?? I don't know...these things are a nowcast deal sometimes. It's still awfully warm in ern areas, but I think the gfs would have them end as a brief period of sn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 4-8 is reasonable for now I think at least a light snowfall is a safe bet. One way or another we have a fairly amplified northern stream disturbance with connection to Atlantic moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I don't know...these things are a nowcast deal sometimes. It's still awfully warm in ern areas, but I think the gfs would have them end as a brief period of sn. I agree, a coating would be nice, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I don't know...these things are a nowcast deal sometimes. It's still awfully warm in ern areas, but I think the gfs would have them end as a brief period of sn. It still has to try to organize as well. It's possible it could get its act together, too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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