moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS says 1-2 west of 495 tonight but 0.0000000" for GC. We'll see Fixed--out for a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 That will be a nice source to have, esp for my area. If we indeed see troughing shift towards the Plains, then storms are going to want to make a run towards the northeast. Having the cold and a big high branching in from the west will help my area out. Your area definitly will benefit from it, Up here we can get away with more marginal cold air because of latitude, But i would not discourage seeing a 1025ish mb high over quebec to help drain some of that cold down or a high further west that brings in modified arctic air into the region......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Okay--any non snowy surface: roads, walkways, etc. I'd also be concerned re: p-type, though I see the RUC says snow. I'll enjoy whatever it is from the sidelines; this will be an eastern special I think. I'll take that in an instant. No CAA at the surface. 44.5/38 attm. Isn't that what you always think? I remember you congratulating CC on being the jackpot prematurely for the last storm when in fact it ended up just to your West. Way too early to throw in the towel. At this rate you will never qualify to be a member of the CoT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah I notice this as well, funny you mention that. It really is a matter of like 50 miles for this to be a big deal for I-90 in sne. Even with the inv trough like feature...it makes me think that some moisture rotating south from Maine is possible..given the mid level setup. Pretty complicated setup and potentially frustrating because it has a "feast" or "famine" appeal to it right now. I'm not expecting anything significant at this juncture, but of course we have to mention the obligatory "we're 6 days out." I'll just be happy for snow. In a post i had earlier this am, Thats what i was kind of alluding to, When looking at all these runs of all the models that would be my fear in this setup but its 6 days out and won't get caught up in anything yet........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think the one encouraging thing about this whole setup as stands right now is that even in these uglier looking solutions (ala 12z GFS and GGEM), it still wants to drop advisory type snows over much of the region. There is a definite tendency to want to get some sort of low forming S of here or at the very least, an inverted trough to focus some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Late week clipper is probably more likely to be a west/east strip of advisory level snows with someone from Ray to ME maybe getting into a warning situation. I mean it could amplify like mad as some models have shown, but most systems like this are moderate hitters. But more to come from the pattern probably so I'm cool with the above if that transpires. Isn't that what you always think? I remember you congratulating CC on being the jackpot prematurely for the last storm when in fact it ended up just to your West. Way too early to throw in the towel. At this rate you will never qualify to be a member of the CoT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Late week clipper is probably more likely to be a west/east strip of advisory level snows with someone from Ray to ME maybe getting into a warning situation. I mean it could amplify like mad as some models have shown, but most systems like this are moderate hitters. But more to come from the pattern probably so I'm cool with the above if that transpires. For me, at this range, the fact that there seems to be at least some agreement that something will get going in the NE quadrant of the US late this week is enough to keep one interested. I would not discount anything from a sizeable hit to flurries. I'm just encouraged by the overall pattern depicted. To try to pin things down at this distance would require a measure of clairvoyance no one I know has. As TT pointed out it is entirely possible the models may lose this threat entirely for a few runs before bringing it back in the form of a more cohesive system. I'm patient and will wait until after the storm to pass out cigars to the 'winners'. FWIW, I think this ends up giving everybody some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Pete is locking it in! The models losing things and reacquiring them is always a hoot. I wish we were two days closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 For me, at this range, the fact that there seems to be at least some agreement that something will get going in the NE quadrant of the US late this week is enough to keep one interested. I would not discount anything from a sizeable hit to flurries. I'm just encouraged by the overall pattern depicted. To try to pin things down at this distance would require a measure of clairvoyance no one I know has. As TT pointed out it is entirely possible the models may lose this threat entirely for a few runs before bringing it back in the form of a more cohesive system. I'm patient and will wait until after the storm to pass out cigars to the 'winners'. FWIW, I think this ends up giving everybody some love. So basically just a wordy copy of what Will said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 So basically just a wordy copy of what Will said Pot ... kettle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Pete is locking it in! The models losing things and reacquiring them is always a hoot. I wish we were two days closer. Last storm I was told that I had little or no chance of getting 4 ", I ended up with just over a foot. The signal for stormy weather at this distance is all I really pay close attention to right now. Little emotional investment until the final hours. I view all of this against the backdrop that it's Winter and, here, we tend to get a decent amount of snow. It will come, in fact it's already here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Isn't that what you always think? I remember you congratulating CC on being the jackpot prematurely for the last storm when in fact it ended up just to your West. Way too early to throw in the towel. At this rate you will never qualify to be a member of the CoT. Too soon to say that for tonight's snow showers? Disagree respectfully. You may recall my congratulations to CC was in reference to a model run depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 So basically just a wordy copy of what Will said Well, not intentionally so, but if my thoughts align with Will's I'll take that as a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well the good news for those who may be in line for qpf tonight--my temp and dp have started to tick down. Slowly to be sure. 44.5/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Too soon to say that for tonight's snow showers? Disagree respectfully. You may recall my congratulations to CC was in reference to a model run depiction. Sorry, thought you were speaking of the late week system. I wouldn't think tonight would offer us more than a trace. Cold air is moving in now. I've lost a few degrees in the last hour now at 42. Horrific pics you posted earlier. Not nearly as bad here with the exception of the high meadows in Worthington which were blown clean by the hurricane force winds with the last system. Woods still hold decent snow and the skiing/snowmobiling continues. Get the blower fixed? Make hay while the sun shines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Slowly edging downwards.. 43.1/42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Can't see qpf on Ukie, but it redevelops the lakes system well SE of LI and then tracks it just E of PSM...so I imagine that would at least be very nice for eastern areas, if not most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Can't see qpf on Ukie, but it redevelops the lakes system well SE of LI and then tracks it just E of PSM...so I imagine that would at least be very nice for eastern areas, if not most of the region. Your point earlier: Even the sub par runs give decent snows to most (a few inches at least). I'm wondering how they do that? UK sounds like a nice event. Crazy Uncle.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Broad points mentioned by many.......this is one heckuva a winter pattern developing with no end in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The euro takes a piece of that Pacific energy, and rips it southeast. I like this setup better than the 00z depiction, but too early to see if it means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The euro takes a piece of that Pacific energy, and rips it southeast. I like this setup better than the 00z depiction, but too early to see if it means anything. Its weird, not digging the pv like other runs we saw previously, but it has a vortmax rotating around the base of it which will end up south of us so it should still produce something, though likely not prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Definitely better than 00z. That piece of energy really tries to tilt the trough negative. Cyclogenesis well east of ORF, but looks like it could really develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Its weird, not digging the pv like other runs we saw previously, but it has a vortmax rotating around the base of it which will end up south of us so it should still produce something, though likely not prolific. Yeah a different evolution for sure. I guess it goes to show you the various outcomes we potentially could have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The euro takes a piece of that Pacific energy, and rips it southeast. I like this setup better than the 00z depiction, but too early to see if it means anything. Looks much better on Euro from 0Z for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Already over a half inch of qpf for BOS by 132h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Already over a half inch of qpf for BOS by 132h. How about everyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Already over a half inch of qpf for BOS by 132h. Pounding us pretty good at least through 138... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looks much better on Euro from 0Z for many. Yeah that vortmax helps tuck the low close to the Cape..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Euro makes everyone happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Pounding us pretty good at least through 138... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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