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The return of winter pattern disco


Damage In Tolland

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I would be shocked if that 12z ECM verified that way.

1) the continuity between 12z yesterday, 00z today, and now 12z today is about as incoherent as imaginably frustrating...

2) it is very rare to get two systems above median intensity within 36 hours of one another; to do so with two actual bombs is bordering on physically impossible on this planet out side some kind of exotically super rare deal. We'd have better odds of being annihilated by an asteroid tomorrow.

the last several systems the Euro has taken great strides to elaborately prove it's uselessness beyond D5 in any given pattern.

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I would be shocked if that 12z ECM verified that way.

1) the continuity between 12z yesterday, 00z today, and now 12z today is about as incoherent as imaginably frustrating...

2) it is very rare to get two systems above median intensity within 36 hours of one another; to do so with two actual bombs is bordering on physically impossible on this planet out side some kind of exotically super rare deal. We'd have better odds of being annihilated by an asteroid tomorrow.

the last several systems the Euro has taken great strides to elaborately prove it's uselessness beyond D5 in any given pattern.

Yeah john it hasn't been too great in recent weeks. Im sure it's still leading the h5 nh verification race but it has underperformed on the east coast imo. I actually think the gfs has been pretty good in the last month.

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Yeah john it hasn't been too great in recent weeks. Im sure it's still leading the h5 nh verification race but it has underperformed on the east coast imo. I actually think the gfs has been pretty good in the last month.

I think Will said it earlier and I agree...the ensembles have been pretty good (well as good as you can expect) in the 5-7 day timeframe. While they may not be totally right, I thought they had the better forecast for the last couple of storm during that time...iirc.

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I think Will said it earlier and I agree...the ensembles have been pretty good (well as good as you can expect) in the 5-7 day timeframe. While they may not be totally right, I thought they had the better forecast for the last couple of storm during that time...iirc.

Yeah I agree with that. Ens forecasting has really shown it's value recently. I think from an op. Standpoint...the gfs has actually been ok. If it were only run 2 times a day (not because 6z and 18z are bad but it would lessen the number of "swings" on a daily basis) I think we would treat it better. Lol

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Yeah I agree with that. Ens forecasting has really shown it's value recently. I think from an op. Standpoint...the gfs has actually been ok. If it were only run 2 times a day (not because 6z and 18z are bad but it would lessen the number of "swings" on a daily basis) I think we would treat it better. Lol

I think the intermediate runs sway people sometimes, with their wild swings. If I compare runs...I usually like to compare 00z to 12z or vice-versa. That doesn't mean I can't compare 06z to 12z, but I feel like comparing the 00z runs and 12z runs is like apples to apples...if you will.

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Yeah I agree with that. Ens forecasting has really shown it's value recently. I think from an op. Standpoint...the gfs has actually been ok. If it were only run 2 times a day (not because 6z and 18z are bad but it would lessen the number of "swings" on a daily basis) I think we would treat it better. Lol

GFS OP did very well inside of 72 hours last system...but it actually got schooled by the Euro in the D5-6 time frame. Its hard to give th eEuro a lot of credit though because of how bad it did once closer in.

Euro ensemble mean seemed to be the most consistent all the way through with the last couple of systems. It did have the one HECS run even on the ensembles with the Dec 19-20 system, but that was one run.

I think with the extreme and exotic blocking to the north, the models are ripe for having a lot of trouble in the medium range. We saw it a lot last winter too. When the blocking was less or non-existent back in '07-'08 and '08-'09, it seemed a lot easier to latch onto a model solution or trend and predict what might happen. I was consistently out-pacing the models during those Nina winters in the D3 time range...but I've felt like I've been spun in circles during this past year of extreme blocking.

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GFS OP did very well inside of 72 hours last system...but it actually got schooled by the Euro in the D5-6 time frame. Its hard to give th eEuro a lot of credit though because of how bad it did once closer in.

Euro ensemble mean seemed to be the most consistent all the way through with the last couple of systems. It did have the one HECS run even on the ensembles with the Dec 19-20 system, but that was one run.

I think with the extreme and exotic blocking to the north, the models are ripe for having a lot of trouble in the medium range. We saw it a lot last winter too. When the blocking was less or non-existent back in '07-'08 and '08-'09, it seemed a lot easier to latch onto a model solution or trend and predict what might happen. I was consistently out-pacing the models during those Nina winters in the D3 time range...but I've felt like I've been spun in circles during this past year of extreme blocking.

Yeah it's interesting how the lack of a se ridge has totally thrown out the 200 mile nw trend within 72 hrs..lol.

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GFS OP did very well inside of 72 hours last system...but it actually got schooled by the Euro in the D5-6 time frame. Its hard to give th eEuro a lot of credit though because of how bad it did once closer in.

Euro ensemble mean seemed to be the most consistent all the way through with the last couple of systems. It did have the one HECS run even on the ensembles with the Dec 19-20 system, but that was one run.

I think with the extreme and exotic blocking to the north, the models are ripe for having a lot of trouble in the medium range. We saw it a lot last winter too. When the blocking was less or non-existent back in '07-'08 and '08-'09, it seemed a lot easier to latch onto a model solution or trend and predict what might happen. I was consistently out-pacing the models during those Nina winters in the D3 time range...but I've felt like I've been spun in circles during this past year of extreme blocking.

I've been surprised by the short-range troubles. With the massive 5h traffic jam I've essentially given up caring about anything beyond about 3.5-4 days...but my confidence has been shaken even inside of 2 days recently.

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GFS OP did very well inside of 72 hours last system...but it actually got schooled by the Euro in the D5-6 time frame. Its hard to give th eEuro a lot of credit though because of how bad it did once closer in.

Euro ensemble mean seemed to be the most consistent all the way through with the last couple of systems. It did have the one HECS run even on the ensembles with the Dec 19-20 system, but that was one run.

I think with the extreme and exotic blocking to the north, the models are ripe for having a lot of trouble in the medium range. We saw it a lot last winter too. When the blocking was less or non-existent back in '07-'08 and '08-'09, it seemed a lot easier to latch onto a model solution or trend and predict what might happen. I was consistently out-pacing the models during those Nina winters in the D3 time range...but I've felt like I've been spun in circles during this past year of extreme blocking.

I'm not sure the models struggled that much last winter. I thought that in the blocking regime they actually locked onto solutions in the medium term fairly well, with the major blizzards in the Mid Atlantic very well predicted.

The frequent SWFEs and a few Miller Bs in those last La Nina winters were definitely much easier to stay ahead of model guidance on. There were clear trends, and not nearly as much radical shifting in the short term like we've seen this winter so far.

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I like that all guidance is pointing to a big storm. Somebody is going to get plastered.

Agreed. Let's see.......could be anyone between north of Baltimore to New Brunswick (and I don't mean NJ). A pretty big dart board five days out.

Still think the safest course of action at this juncture is a moderate event possible region-wide.

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Agreed. Let's see.......could be anyone between north of Baltimore to New Brunswick (and I don't mean NJ). A pretty big dart board five days out.

Still think the safest course of action at this juncture is a moderate event possible region-wide.

Might as well throw caution to the wind. Big Bomb incoming.

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THURSDAY NIGHT...WE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...AS THE SNOW

FROM THE CLIPPER CONTINUES. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARISE IN THE

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. THE ECMWF IS VERY AGGRESSIVE

DIGGING SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT CLOSED LOW

FURTHER EQUATORWARD OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. THIS WOULD ALLOW

CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRI. THE GFS

DEVELOPS A SECONDARY WAVE MUCH FURTHER POLEWARD NEAR ERN LONG ISLAND

WHICH KEEP SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW GOING. THE CAN GGEM IS

CLOSER TO THE GFS. OVERALL...THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SOME

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI-SAT...VERY CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST...WHERE ONE SCENARIO

IS FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A CUTOFF LOW

DEVELOPING OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND /GFS AND TO AN EXTENT THE

CANADIAN GGEM/...AND ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE A HALF DOZEN OR SO GEFS

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF DEVELOP AN IMPRESSIVE SFC CYCLONE

SOUTHEAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT THE WAVE N/NE

TOWARDS LONG ISLAND FRI NIGHT...THEN KICK THE STORM OUT TO SEA

SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SCENARIO INTENSIFIES THE SFC LOW TO LESS THAN

970 HPA SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND THEN THE LOW

BECOMES OCCLUDED. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST

WOULD POTENTIALLY GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT

HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE HWO YET. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME

BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE HPC GRAPHICS WITH THE LATEST

ECMWF. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST AN EXTENDED

LIGHT SNOW THREAT TO GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS FROM FRI-SAT. COOL AND

WARM SEASON CSTAR RESEARCH HAS SHOW HOW PROBLEMATIC CUTOFF LOWS CAN

BE FORECASTING THEIR QPF DISTRIBUTION AND TRACK. WE WILL CONTINUE

TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAX TEMPS LOOK

SEASONABLE FOR THE STRETCH RANGING FROM THE 20-30F RANGE...AND LOWS

IN THE 5-15F RANGE.

Another great, detailed Disco out of the ALB office. They've really been on the ball lately.

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LOL...not one post on the 00z Euro this morning.. Shocking. It gives us another blizzard and 967 south of ACK.

Euro ensembles very consistant right over the BM

Give it a couple days. Too many disasters in 2010, we need to let 2011 run it's course and let us feel safe again. As we thought.

I'm liking where things stand right now for January...a few storm chances and probably roller coaster temp swings maybe landing in the freezer for mid Jan.

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