Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Heh, kind of surprised actually this thread didn't run up to 101 pages upon seeing that Euro run... It's probably encouraging on some level that it did not, because people are [hopefully] getting less trigger happy and more analytical. That said, *HOLY SHISTER* J/K... serioiusly though, this run is so beautiful to look at but unfortunately, and I am sure this has been discussed, this is just as discontinuous as the previous 3 cycles of this model. There's that, and the fact that the GFS's recent verification scores are rivaling the Euro, where the 00z GFS did not agree very well. The 06z GFS did "trend" that way - which is a red flag not to drop the Euro notion for me because the 06z (as I have been made aware) should be treated as another ensemble, and 2 or 3 of the 00z members did have a slow moving hyper bomb. Personally? I believe that signals that the 12z GFS comes in with big big problem from DCA up the Coast but that's just me. The Euro is actually doing this at D4.5, which is about 12 hours inside its wheelhouse of oops I should have gone with that. But we'll see.. John, seeing the 06z GFS and it's ensm. trend towards the Euro was a step in the right direction, I agree. At this point you'd have to play the 00z Euro as an outlier but one to monitor. We could have a monster on our hands if we get this ULL low to close of just right S of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Lol...they are hype machines sometimes. I don't get it. Well, if you're buying the Euro op verbatim, why not chuck em' lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Seems kind of crazy to start chucking that analog around..almost like I got ahold of the HPC winter wx desk computer I agree, but the 500 evolution IS very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Without looking...is that Cisco? I think you can go back and look at a lot of potential storms at H5 and find an analog that matches it but we are 4-5 days out and this pattern is differnt then it was in 1978, I hate when they start throwing references to blockbusters............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 I agree, but the 500 evolution IS very similar. Scooter urges caution..so caution is what we will follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well, if you're buying the Euro op verbatim, why not chuck em' lol..... Problem is...there are plenty of people who read that product but don't know how to interpret it. So you end up with people saying stuff like "I heard it was going to as bad as 78" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Seems kind of crazy to start chucking that analog around..almost like I got ahold of the HPC winter wx desk computer It doesn't to me at all... Out in the main forum page I put a thread together 2 days ago with annotated charts featuring guess what? I'd be an idiot to go out on that limb, but eh, ....it is what it is in terms of "what it looks like aloft". What I find shocking is that 3 days later the Euro does all over again - different analog though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Rausch/Flood tag team effort Flood's my favorite...Rosenstein a close 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Scooter urges caution..so caution is what we will follow Problem is...there are plenty of people who read that product but don't know how to interpret it. So you end up with people saying stuff like "I heard it was going to as bad as 78" Agreed. I'd like to see the 12z suite of GFS/GGEM/Ukie come in more amplified with the ULL before we ride any Euro solution. We saw this with the last system where the Euro was amped up in the 5-6 day range only to lose it, than come back to it in the 2-3 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Heh, kind of surprised actually this thread didn't run up to 101 pages upon seeing that Euro run... It's probably encouraging on some level that it did not, because people are [hopefully] getting less trigger happy and more analytical. That said, *HOLY SHISTER* J/K... serioiusly though, this run is so beautiful to look at but unfortunately, and I am sure this has been discussed, this is just as discontinuous as the previous 3 cycles of this model. There's that, and the fact that the GFS's recent verification scores are rivaling the Euro, where the 00z GFS did not agree very well. The 06z GFS did "trend" that way - which is a red flag not to drop the Euro notion for me because the 06z (as I have been made aware) should be treated as another ensemble, and 2 or 3 of the 00z members did have a slow moving hyper bomb. Personally? I believe that signals that the 12z GFS comes in with big big problem from DCA up the Coast but that's just me. The Euro is actually doing this at D4.5, which is about 12 hours inside its wheelhouse of oops I should have gone with that. But we'll see.. I honestly think the last storm devasted a lot of Weenies and that's why people aren't chucking right now. That's why I'm not.. give me that solution 48 hours out and then ill be interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I would think by now after the last few storms that most people have learned not to ride any solution that is shown this far out but to look for trends as to what the outcome could be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 6-10 NCEP anaolgues list in fourth place 01/27/1978. That folks, is the Cleveland Super-Bomb. I was fortunate enough to be in SBI for that one. I don't think I will ever see the likes of that again in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I would think by now after the last few storms that most people have learned not to ride any solution that is shown this far out but to look for trends as to what the outcome could be... Also, I think that a lot of people are still emotionally drained from the last storm as well ad Xmas and new years. I didn't even want to look at a computer after last storm nevermind more models and amwx. I'm still to point Where I really Don't care if this storm misses my area lol.. its funny cause this storm could be bigger than the last one and to see how empty the boards are now compared to last storm at d5 Is funny.. I also think that this confused setup has allowed more Mets to provide input rather than Weenies like me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Also, I think that a lot of people are still emotionally drained from the last storm as well ad Xmas and new years. I didn't even want to look at a computer after last storm nevermind more models and amwx. I'm still to point Where I really Don't care if this storm misses my area lol.. its funny cause this storm could be bigger than the last one and to see how empty the boards are now compared to last storm at d5 Is funny.. I also think that this confused setup has allowed more Mets to provide input rather than Weenies like me... I liked the December 26-27th storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 6-10 NCEP anaolgues list in fourth place 01/27/1978. That folks, is the Cleveland Super-Bomb. I was fortunate enough to be in SBI for that one. I don't think I will ever see the likes of that again in my lifetime. I was living in Kalamazoo Michigan at that time - yes, biggest, fiersest, most powerful to the point of almost terror was that storm, and that is not subjective or open to debate. We gusted to 90+mph ON LAND, with 30-36 " of snow... No school for 10 days and no cars on road for a week. Power outages galore. Fatalities... My father had to hike for food for our family, and we lived in the city - not urbania. Feb 6 1978 was a huge, historic, worthy beyond the pale out this way, YES. but ...heh, sorry folks, that was not the most powerful storm that year in terms of integrated energy. There was less population affected, and that is good thing ...otherwise the fatalities would have been much higher. That storm went down to 953mb and to this day holds the intercontinental lowest BP record...ever! people egg this crap on but I tell you what.... I'd take a repeating 4-8'er pattern over something that risks life any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In one run, We have solutions way south and way north, And the truth probably lies in the middle.......... all i can say is this.... if the MA gets canada's snow again and we get partly cloudy skies from a Miller B with a rising NAO, i am gonna absolutely flip a lid on the other hand, i enjoyed the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I was living in Kalamazoo Michigan at that time - yes, biggest, fiersest, most powerful to the point of almost terror was that storm, and that is not subjective or open to debate. We gust to 90+mph ON LAND, with 30-36 " of snow... No school for 10 days and no cars on road for a week. Power outages galore. Fatalities... My father had to hike for food for our family, and we live in the city - not urbania. Feb 6 1978 was a huge, historic, worthy beyond the pale out this way, YES. but ...heh, sorry folks, that was not the most powerful storm that year in terms of integrated energy. There was less population affected, and that is good thing ...otherwise the fatalities would have been much higher. That storm went down to 953mb and to this day hold the intercontinental lowest BP record...ever! people egg this crap on but I tell you what.... I'd take a repeating 4-8'er pattern over something that risks life any day. amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12Z NAM out in la la land does not look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 all i can say is this.... if the MA gets canada's snow again and we get partly cloudy skies from a Miller B with a rising NAO, i am gonna absolutely flip a lid on the other hand, i enjoyed the 6z GFS. I would not be happy about it, But i think we may not have to worry about it either, I still think we end up somewhere in between......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You can have 500 setups that look similar, but we are missing arctic air and a 1050 high nosing in from the west. If anything, this setup on the euro, reminded me of 4/1/97. You had a trough in the west, big ULL digging se, ridging in the Plains, weak trough over wrn TX. The only difference is that we had no blocking in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Talk to Will, Ray, etc. i guess they don't like his thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You can have 500 setups that look similar, but we are missing arctic air and a 1050 high nosing in from the west. If anything, this setup on the euro, reminded me of 4/1/97. You had a trough in the west, big ULL digging se, ridging in the Plains, weak trough over wrn TX. The only difference is that we had no blocking in that one. It's an interesting point about the sfc PP... 1997 had a some early rain issues - imagine that storm with no rain issues? that would be be ... yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's an interesting point about the sfc PP... 1997 had a some early rain issues - imagine that storm with no rain issues? that would be be ... yea Tip, as of now What are your quick thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 how much wind was there in april 97 and what type of pressure are we talking? sounds like a wet snow bomb from all things i have read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The more I look at the 00z, the more I'm kind of meh with it. Too me, it screams a NJ special with a rotting band of snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I would not be happy about it, But i think we may not have to worry about it either, I still think we end up somewhere in between......... yeah i think it will lie in the middle, south of long island to near the BM and into the GOM would be fantastic looking at the 00z euro was a horror show seeing a low off NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 how much wind was there in april 97 and what type of pressure are we talking? sounds like a wet snow bomb from all things i have read. It was around 982mb I believe, but we had gusts to 50-60mph in that. Personally, my #1 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Flood's my favorite...Rosenstein a close 2nd. Cisco is the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yeah i think it will lie in the middle, south of long island to near the BM and into the GOM would be fantastic looking at the 00z euro was a horror show seeing a low off NJ That would be the ultimite track... I still think this does not dive that far south, The Euro moved the surface low like 300 miles south that certainly raised an eyebrow.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The more I look at the 00z, the more I'm kind of meh with it. Too me, it screams a NJ special with a rotting band of snow for us. Especially up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.