Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's so weird. Snowy Friday and then refiring Saturday. I have to think in the end it will be one event consolidated vs what is being depicted. The problem is the GFS shifted the position of a single s/w about 1500 miles in one run, so we are still a good 12-18 hours away from a more refined solution. I think we see one pretty strong low kick out early, and then another low that takes over form off the Carolinas and head this way before stalling and bombing. Going to be an interesting event to watch unfold but pointless to worry about with so many changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Similar distribution, less robust but still impressive qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 MaineJayhawk gets buried alive? S NH victory. Borderline advisory in Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No much different than the Pike northward. But Keene, NH gets clobbered. A foot for BOS-ORH...2 feet for ASH to EEN? Lol...weird looking qpf map, but undoubtedly caused by inverted trough nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 S NH victory. Borderline advisory in Tolland. Keene Krusher Baldy Bamboozler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 IMHO, H5 demonstrated incredible potential, but the capture was a day late and a $ short of realizing that potential and is trending int he wrong direction attm....JMO. I could be wrong but is the main issue that is trending a bit futher east heights out west? it looks a little flatter out west and that manitoba energy is going further east.. anyone want to coment? could it be that southern stream energy is a little closer to the coast .. just thinking out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's actually not that different from 18z, qualitatively speaking.....just quantitatively.... I think what will happen is we either see that capture occur a bit sooner in order to nail us, or this inverted trough signal continues to wane into a more reasonable, modest event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Uncle... Compare to GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 the 2nd storm week of the 10th looks interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 the 2nd storm week of the 10th looks interesting.. My eary thoughts on that are a good event, but nothing nuts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I actually really like the way Crazy Uncle looks at 72h...esp when you look the vorticity...I think that lobe would really start digging SW before swinging E. We'll find out in another hour or so, lol...time for their tea break before we get it past 72h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 IMHO, H5 demonstrated incredible potential, but the capture was a day late and a $ short of realizing that potential and is trending int he wrong direction attm....JMO. I don't think we can call anything a "trend" anywhere yet. Very complex forecast, with a new evolution every run that happens to return similar sensible weather. All positives thus far in my mind. As long as we still send that 500mb low south of LI for another 24 hours worth of runs, I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1052H coming into MT at 174hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 My eary thoughts on that are a good event, but nothing nuts.... A very reasonable forecast at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 wow.. 0 at 850 down to Mexico city?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 A very reasonable forecast at this lead time. First of all, it's a Miller A....limiting factor for us. Secondly, early on it looks as though it could be a hugger. Two reasons to keep expectations a bit tempered, aside from the huge lead time, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 wow.. 0 at 850 down to Mexico city?? Since Mexico City is something like 750 mb, subfreezing all day? Not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 A very reasonable forecast at this lead time. well the GFS would disagree looking at 216hrs.. haha.. but the signal is there... really exiting.. 2 events to track and bitter cold coming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 First of all, it's a Miller A....limiting factor for us. Secondly, early on it looks as though it could be a hugger. Two reasons to keep expectations a bit tempered, aside from the huge lead time, obviously. A hugger with a nice high. Something like that would probably not go up your fanny, but alas....we are getting ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 First of all, it's a Miller A....limiting factor for us. Secondly, early on it looks as though it could be a hugger. Two reasons to keep expectations a bit tempered, aside from the huge lead time, obviously. It's not a Miller A. It's a Miller B I'm pretty sure. edit: Am I talking about 2 events? I'm thinking weekend...event 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Since Mexico City is something like 750 mb, subfreezing all day? Not going to happen. well at least el paso.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 A foot for BOS-ORH...2 feet for ASH to EEN? Lol...weird looking qpf map, but undoubtedly caused by inverted trough nuances. inverted trough fire hose FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 First of all, it's a Miller A....limiting factor for us. Secondly, early on it looks as though it could be a hugger. Two reasons to keep expectations a bit tempered, aside from the huge lead time, obviously. It's a Miller B Not many Miller A's crush eastern New England and leave NYC and south dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's a Miller B Not many Miller A's crush eastern New England and leave NYC and south dry He's talking about the 2nd system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 well at least el paso.. A classic...timeless.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn3JB51NH_M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's not a Miller A. It's a Miller B I'm pretty sure. edit: Am I talking about 2 events? I'm thinking weekend...event 1. Miller B bowling ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NOGAPS shoves a vortmax lobe all the way down to NC but it doesn't produce anything because it already went nuts with a smaller s/w out over the atlantic. But good to see it still digging things so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Gnight gents. Still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 He's talking about the 2nd system. Oh ok. I haven't looked at that one too closely, aside from reading DTs praises of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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