40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No it doesn't. It looked like it was up by NS in the link John provided me.....I hate the GEM and UK graphics.........which is why I always just wait for folks to relay what they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Doesn't look that bad for your location to me. Yeah he'd probably get creamed...even me too. Its 5h trying to yank back the sfc reflection and probably would produce a GGEM like scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Next weeks storm strikes me as being more of a Miller A possibly as the SW junk finally ejects. The HPC forecast discussion 12Z release hits upon every aspect of what's being bounced around tonight. The 1am. thoughts are direct. http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdepd.html With such a block in place one would think that a larger hit over a 1-3" looks more probable. After that looking like a five day repeating pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 One thing I will say (with this thread titled the return of winter disco)...the GEFS ensemble means are incredibly resilient with the blocking. This is several runs in a row now where they hold an anomalous block through the end of the run. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/f348.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm always pretty nervous when the models show much of the snowfall coming from an inverted trough set-up. Remember the NAM ridiculous inverted trough from a few weeks ago. LOL In the end it was a few inches of snow in parts of SNE and a half inch back to here. Inverted troughs are always nasty...but they can and do occasionally produce huge storms...you just need the robust upper level support for them...and this is a case (on model depictions) where the upper level support is very strong...it wouldn't just be about ll convergence like typical norlun trouhgs...it would be about good mid-level inflow via the insane upper level divergence and PVA in the ULs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm always pretty nervous when the models show much of the snowfall coming from an inverted trough set-up. Remember the NAM ridiculous inverted trough from a few weeks ago. LOL In the end it was a few inches of snow in parts of SNE and a half inch back to here. I know and it makes sense the EURO didn't depict a more robust inverted trough.....it's either going to cream us or it's not, but we aren't getting a 15" inverted trough. Some of these models need to either sh** or get off the pot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thanks for the help, Tom and John....hopefully this goes ape sh** and you guys can grab some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thanks for the help, Tom and John....hopefully this goes ape sh** and you guys can grab some. i hope you guys do get creamed, all im asking is for 1-3 down here and im happy, just to whiten the ground up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i hope you guys do get creamed, all im asking is for 1-3 down here and im happy, just to whiten the ground up. Are you right outside Philly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thanks for the help, Tom and John....hopefully this goes ape sh** and you guys can grab some. I'll take whatever I can get..hope you're buried. The upper air solution even has me kinda excited down here, and that should say alot for your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Are you right outside Philly... yup, like 10 miles west of center city, bout 8 miles nnw of phl intl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I had to go down to Orange County, NY (100 miles south) for work today and the torch decimated their snow cover. That was the 20" area and they are reduced to several inches in the woods and half bare lawns. So basically they have as much left as here, but I only had 7 inches. i hope you guys do get creamed, all im asking is for 1-3 down here and im happy, just to whiten the ground up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yup, like 10 miles west of center city, bout 8 miles nnw of phl intl Cool.....I know John won't go because he never does, but hopefully you make it to Baltimore this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know and it makes sense the EURO didn't depict a more robust inverted trough.....it's either going to cream us or it's not, but we aren't getting a 15" inverted trough. Some of these models need to either sh** or get off the pot. I completely disagree with this...its very possible we see a big system in a relatively narrow area (say 100-150 miles wide) because of the inverted trough phenomenon....would i favor it? No I wouldn't. But it can and has happened. If its going to happen this is the type of setup it would need. And don't discount what an inverted trough is...its simply a yanking back of the sfc isobars because the upper level support is trying to force a new low to develop at the sfc but it can never quite get it...but that type of action can even produce blizzard conditions because of the pressure gradient that develops. Feb 14, 1962 (page 713 in volume 2 of Kocin) is a good example of this. I got like 25" from that. I agree that its not LIKELY, but you cannot discount these type of diving H5 setups....you'll see that was also a H5 low diving SE from the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I had to go down to Orange County, NY (100 miles south) for work today and the torch decimated their snow cover. That was the 20" area and they are reduced to several inches in the woods and half bare lawns. So basically they have as much left as here, but I only had 7 inches. yea, granted i had about a foot, not the 2 feet like nyc area got, but those e days of mid 40s then sunday into the 50s, just killed it... We have piles still left, and areas where it drifted good are still left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 but we aren't getting a 15" inverted trough. Can certainly happen..if there was an upper air setup where it was favored (and near your location, too) this is it. That being said I wouldn't hang my hat on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I had to go down to Orange County, NY (100 miles south) for work today and the torch decimated their snow cover. That was the 20" area and they are reduced to several inches in the woods and half bare lawns. So basically they have as much left as here, but I only had 7 inches. Yea, caught up to Boston (18" to my 12") and just about to John (30" to my 12") lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Cool.....I know John won't go because he never does, but hopefully you make it to Baltimore this summer. yea balt isn't that far at all, is it on the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I completely disagree with this...its very possible we see a big system in a relatively narrow area (say 100-150 miles wide) because of the inverted trough phenomenon....would i favor it? No I wouldn't. But it can and has happened. If its going to happen this is the type of setup it would need. And don't discount what an inverted trough is...its simply a yanking back of the sfc isobars because the upper level support is trying to force a new low to develop at the sfc but it can never quite get it...but that type of action can even produce blizzard conditions because of the pressure gradient that develops. Feb 14, 1962 (page 713 in volume 2 of Kocin) is a good example of this. I got like 25" from that. I agree that its not LIKELY, but you cannot discount these type of diving H5 setups....you'll see that was also a H5 low diving SE from the lakes. Well, you know me....I tend to throw around absolutes, but I realize it's possible. Bottom line is that the conventonal means of attaining a heavy snowfall instills far more confidence, than pulling retrograding rabbits out of inverted hats. I'll bet against it and be right 95\100 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yea balt isn't that far at all, is it on the weekend? Yea....July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think we are definitely seeing the models have some conflict here between the offshore low and the possibility that a new low may form further w/nw nearer the best upper support. So to some extent these inverted trough surface depictions may be a model fiction at this stage as they grapple with this and the low actually tucks in a lot closer if things work out. That's the hopeful scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ray I have never seen you like this, dude. I know it's been a while since you KU'ed but you have to at least try to temper your expectations a bit, no? After the stretch of 3-4 bad winters in a row after Feb 06 I was literally tearing up when I saw a storm system that didn't involve sleet pellets or liquid precipitation. If I had your attitude this past storm system would have been the first time I was truly happy. Actually you can throw Feb 26 in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ray I have never seen you like this, dude. I know it's been a while since you KU'ed but you have to at least try to temper your expectations a bit, no? After the stretch of 3-4 bad winters in a row after Feb 06 I was literally tearing up when I saw a storm system that didn't involve sleet pellets or liquid precipitation. If I had your attitude this past storm system would have been the first time I was truly happy..with a huge KU. I'm not whining....I'm simply arguing that a major snow storm via an inverted trough is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 By the way, what on earth has happened to the UKMet this season? It's been atrocious through the first month and a half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ray I have never seen you like this, dude. I know it's been a while since you KU'ed but you have to at least try to temper your expectations a bit, no? After the stretch of 3-4 bad winters in a row after Feb 06 I was literally tearing up when I saw a storm system that didn't involve sleet pellets or liquid precipitation. If I had your attitude this past storm system would have been the first time I was truly happy. Actually you can throw Feb 26 in there. Well he is obviously starving for a monster hit...but yeah, its unrealistic to keep expecting a KU....or more accurately ...pinning emotions on a KU type snowfall. 6-10" would be a great thing out of this...esp when southwest of here has a much lower hope of anything at all (greater than 2"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm not whining....I'm simply arguing that a major snow storm via an inverted trough is unlikely. I think you misunderstood my post. I'm talking more about the past few days in general, even prior to that. It's KU or bust for you I mean that's totally fine, sometimes I get that way too..but I'm just wondering why you wouldn't lower your expectations a bit for a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 By the way, what on earth has happened to the UKMet this season? It's been atrocious through the first month and a half of winter. I think when you see seasons this anomalous, you not only disregard conventional climo restraints to a degree, but the landsape of model veracity is also altered. This blocking drives them nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well he is obviously starving for a monster hit...but yeah, its unrealistic to keep expecting a KU....or more accurately ...pinning emotions on a KU type snowfall. 6-10" would be a great thing out of this...esp when southwest of here has a much lower hope of anything at all (greater than 2"). There we go, that's what I was driving at. I mean it happens in most big threats inevitably..as soon as a few models show the big KU type possibility. I guess everybody reacts differently--if I were in Ray's climatological position, and given the past year or so, I would love 6-10". But I can understand why he is driving for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think when you see seasons this anomalous, you not only disregard conventional climo restraints to a degree, but the landsape of model veracity is also altered. This blocking drives them nuts. Fair point, but I couldn't have ever imagined it being quite as bad as it was with the last system. 60 hours in it adjusted it's surface low position by 500 miles. And it still was way too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Closing time, i know what weenie i want to take me home. The inverted 15" bomb. In all reality, can we please get one semi traditional setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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