Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like everyone had hot dates tonight or they are doing the smart thing and getting sleep as this wont be figured out for several model runs. Some good solutions tonight thus far though. Hopefully Euro can add to it. Here with ya brother, watch um fly out of the woodwork soon as this run gets hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's a Miller B Not many Miller A's crush eastern New England and leave NYC and south dry Of course I'm talking about the 2nd system......common sense. Scott, the high won't protect us from occlusion and a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Of course I'm talking about the 2nd system......common sense. Scott, the high won't protect us from occlusion and a dry slot. No, but it helps to have a 1030 high to our north, rather than nothing or having the high east of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's early, but the euro may have a decent solution...maybe something a little sooner than what 12z showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No, but it helps to have a 1030 high to our north, rather than nothing or having the high east of Maine. Yea, it should also aid in enhancing QPF outside of the main deformation band via isentropic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Pretty big differences from 12z. The 00z really rips that vortlobe into MN and Lake Superior at hr 66. It also has a lead piece of vorticity coming down from the Canadian Rockies and into the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Man it's going to take many more runs to figure this mess out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ma, that vortex is really retrograding Mar '01 style thru 78h. Hopefully it keeps digging south through the lakes to produce a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 At 90 hrs, the vortex is elongating like wants to join the frey.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Wow does the PV get stretched! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This looks like it wants to end up real good looking at 90h H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 At 90 hrs, the vortex is elongating like wants to join the frey.... Looks like the GFS, but it's probably going to congeal a bit too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This looks like it wants to end up real good looking at 90h H5. Def. better than 12z....looks similar to GFS....worst case will be bit too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like the euro wants to retro a bit at hr 102. Low pressure backs up to near the BM, from the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like everyone had hot dates tonight or they are doing the smart thing and getting sleep as this wont be figured out for several model runs. Some good solutions tonight thus far though. Hopefully Euro can add to it. Just reading, watching and learning. Told myself (and the wife) back in early Nov. that I wouldn't get sucked into obsessive model watching. The Xmas w/e system had me cautious but over enthusiastic. My intuition (and many years of NE wx watching) has led me to lean towards wagons west this year. Happened last storm, we just had the dry mid levels that screwed a good portion of SNE out of the good snow growth. I'm thinking W. trend this w/e also once we get the models inside of 48hrs. The difference this time being NW Ma., S. Vt etc get a slightly better performance. I do know this my area tends to do well when Monadnock region does well. There's a phenomena I've watched with some retrograde coastal's where moisture seems to ride along that corridor just N. of RT 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I can't remember an ULL stretched like that. Hr 102 is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I can't remember an ULL stretched like that. Hr 102 is nuts. Yeah WTF is that? I thought the whole thing was gonna slide south of us almost '78 style, but this is ridiculous looking lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like the low for the time being, stalls se of the BM, but snow gets into sne as the mid levels wrap up and a secondary closed H5 low develops in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Plays out as I suspected....a bit too late to be a huge event, but it's mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Man it's going to take many more runs to figure this mess out. Oddly comforting to hear you say that. I like the "X" factor we've been seeing with the models the past few weeks. No King. New England Winter FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is close to a monster hit for some areas. As it is right now, the comma head gets into eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Mod AIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Advisory-low end warning event protracted over 24 hrs....meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 From what I can see there is little margin for error for the I-90 corridor in MA ...any trend north of the upper low and the whole thing instead focuses on VT/NH/ME. So it could work out, but it's too tenuous to get very excited. Out here at best its like 3-6" over a long period with an inverted trough probably. I think next weeks low is the bigger threat here. I can't remember an ULL stretched like that. Hr 102 is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is close to a monster hit for some areas. As it is right now, the comma head gets into eastern areas. Yeah that was almost looking like a '78 HECS or something at 90h...but it got stretched out obscenely, lol. I love the idea of putting all the action at 5h south of us...that usually can only mean good things. I didn't see that rubber band style stretch coming. I think its safe to say it probably wouldn't play out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Cape special, but I like the setup. It's dam close for something much larger. The whole evolution is interesting to say the least..lol. Like Will and I said...it stretches the sh*t out of the upper low, but eventually a second H5 low forms near the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is close to a monster hit for some areas. As it is right now, the comma head gets into eastern areas. Just seems like a mess, to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 From what I can see there is little margin for error for the I-90 corridor in MA ...any trend north of the upper low and the whole thing instead focuses on VT/NH/ME. So it could work out, but it's too tenuous to get very excited. Out here at best its like 3-6" over a long period with an inverted trough probably. I think next weeks low is the bigger threat here. It very well could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah that was almost looking like a '78 HECS or something at 90h...but it got stretched out obscenely, lol. I love the idea of putting all the action at 5h south of us...that usually can only mean good things. I didn't see that rubber band style stretch coming. I think its safe to say it probably wouldn't play out like that. I'll take you and Scott's word for it, but it a looks like a disjointed, amorphous bag of WTF, to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Another run; another totally different solution. lol...time for z's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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