tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 the gfs indiv ens runs cream your area, majority of them show atleast .75 for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think you misunderstood my post. I'm talking more about the past few days in general, even prior to that. It's KU or bust for you I mean that's totally fine, sometimes I get that way too..but I'm just wondering why you wouldn't lower your expectations a bit for a moderate event. Last year did something to me.....now your area seeing 2-2.5' AGAIN.....N ME seeing it this year. I can take not getting 2-3' of snow, but not when everyone else on the east coast has, within the past year. Folks know that and granted I do complain to much, but it's reached the point where I can no longer even express any displasure with a particular soloution without being jumped....it goes both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Last year did something to me.....now your area seeing 2-2.5' AGAIN.....N ME seeing it this year. I can take not getting 2-3' of snow, but not when everyone else on the east coast has, within the past year. Folks know that and granted I do complain to much, but it's reached the point where I can no longer even express any displasure with a particular soloution without being jumped....it goes both ways. Yeah I agree with this---I think you do get too much extra ribbing for your complaining, it's warranted at least over the past year. I won't speak for my 30 inches of snow...but I can say that all things even out in time. If I were you I would moderate my expectations and eventually the goods will be delivered. Before you know it I will be miserable watching the sleet compact my snow like bullets falling out of the sky while you're pounding +SN on the good side of the CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There we go, that's what I was driving at. I mean it happens in most big threats inevitably..as soon as a few models show the big KU type possibility. I guess everybody reacts differently--if I were in Ray's climatological position, and given the past year or so, I would love 6-10". But I can understand why he is driving for more. I think he's just sick of seeing a lot of places in each direction getting 20"+ and not him....not that I blame him for that initial frustration....but I'm in the same boat. I'm sitting in ORH which hasn't gotten a 20"+ snowstorm like him since January 2005. But I have no desire to try and get my emotions wrapped around the possibility of 2 feet at 4 days out despite the several model teases (including the very close Dec 26-27, 2010 storm)....but its climo working its magic...theres no reason why Ray should keep getting 20" snowstorms at the rate the 1990s and early 2000s....the same period that hurt the Mid-Atlantic (though they got a couple big ones then...but still well short of the SNE assault). He gets his big average of over 60" per year because he can pick up 10" in a setup like this while NYC gets nearly nothing. Its part of the climo. It doesn't (and usually isn't) have to be 20" at a time. He has a KU fetish...he's already admitted it, but its silly to obsess over because of their rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 After last February...I'm set for awhile re: KU storms. I'd just like some good events and build up some snow base. So yesterday I was at a neighborhood party and some of the old timer neighbors were saying that the 40" we had on the ground last February was no big deal ..Dec 1969 was a lot deeper here. LOL If that is the case then it must have been crazy deep.... although ALB did get 56" that month. Well he is obviously starving for a monster hit...but yeah, its unrealistic to keep expecting a KU....or more accurately ...pinning emotions on a KU type snowfall. 6-10" would be a great thing out of this...esp when southwest of here has a much lower hope of anything at all (greater than 2"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah I agree with this---I think you do get too much extra ribbing for your complaining, it's warranted at least over the past year. I won't speak for my 30 inches of snow...but I can say that all things even out in time. If I were you I would moderate my expectations and eventually the goods will be delivered. Before you know it I will be miserable watching the sleet compact my snow like bullets falling out of the sky while you're pounding +SN on the good side of the CF. Folks like Will tell me that 6 years without a KU is nothing, we have gone through far worse stretches...they are rare....OK, but find me a sample from recorded history in which I would have had to watch everyone rejoice to the tune of EPICS snows, while I had a conveyor belt of cosmic dildos running from my azz to my mouth. Now folks will wake up in the morning and roll their eyes, but you asked..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think he's just sick of seeing a lot of places in each direction getting 20"+ and not him....not that I blame him for that initial frustration....but I'm in the same boat. I'm sitting in ORH which hasn't gotten a 20"+ snowstorm like him since January 2005. But I have no desire to try and get my emotions wrapped around the possibility of 2 feet at 4 days out despite the several model teases (including the very close Dec 26-27, 2010 storm)....but its climo working its magic...theres no reason why Ray should keep getting 20" snowstorms at the rate the 1990s and early 2000s....the same period that hurt the Mid-Atlantic (though they got a couple big ones then...but still well short of the SNE assault). He gets his big average of over 60" per year because he can pick up 10" in a setup like this while NYC gets nearly nothing. Its part of the climo. It doesn't (and usually isn't) have to be 20" at a time. He has a KU fetish...he's already admitted it, but its silly to obsess over because of their rarity. Good post and I agree. I guess I am a different type of weenie because the climo in my location can get so dramatic and ridiculous. We're in a good period the past 12 months, but I know it's going to get so dramatically bad eventually. You and I both witnessed the 07-09 winter's and they were awful for my location..busts in every which way possible. I guess that, and experiencing some of the big ones, has led to me treasure every single flake I can get. I will take a 3-6 inch clipper snowfall any day. I couldn't care less if it torches the next day or whatever--for that brief period of time when it's snowing everything is great as far as I am concerned. The KU events will come and go, the sleet rain and busts will come and go, it all evens out. You just have to enjoy them while they're here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Folks like Will tell me that 6 years without a KU is nothing, we have gone through far worse stretches...they are rare....OK, but find me a sample from recorded history in which I would have had to watch everyone rejoice to the tune of EPICS snows, while I had a conveyor belt of cosmic doldos running from my azz to my mouth. Now folks will wake up in the morning and roills their eyes, but you asked..... Find a stretch that absolutely destroyed New England like we had between 1992-2005 and absolutely dicked philly south...NYC was decent, but nothing like we were. It evens out...climo is a b**ch isn't it? This year so far, we are playing the climo card on DC/BWI, but not on NYC yet. But it always comes back in the end. Just be patient...you will get your 20" CF jackpot...its only a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think he's just sick of seeing a lot of places in each direction getting 20"+ and not him....not that I blame him for that initial frustration....but I'm in the same boat. I'm sitting in ORH which hasn't gotten a 20"+ snowstorm like him since January 2005. But I have no desire to try and get my emotions wrapped around the possibility of 2 feet at 4 days out despite the several model teases (including the very close Dec 26-27, 2010 storm)....but its climo working its magic...theres no reason why Ray should keep getting 20" snowstorms at the rate the 1990s and early 2000s....the same period that hurt the Mid-Atlantic (though they got a couple big ones then...but still well short of the SNE assault). He gets his big average of over 60" per year because he can pick up 10" in a setup like this while NYC gets nearly nothing. Its part of the climo. It doesn't (and usually isn't) have to be 20" at a time. He has a KU fetish...he's already admitted it, but its silly to obsess over because of their rarity. Fair post, but the one counter I would offer is that folks in the MA should be ammendable to getting screwed relative to sne, than vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well this past storm was a KU. Boston qualified with 18" and certainly NJ/NY guarantees inclusion in their next edition of the book. But what can you do....even in KU's snowfall distribution is uneven. Folks like Will tell me that 6 years without a KU is nothing, we have gone through far worse stretches...they are rare....OK, but find me a sample from recorded history in which I would have had to watch everyone rejoice to the tune of EPICS snows, while I had a conveyor belt of cosmic dildos running from my azz to my mouth. Now folks will wake up in the morning and roll their eyes, but you asked..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Find a stretch that absolutely destroyed New England like we had between 1992-2005 and absolutely dicked philly south...NYC was decent, but nothing like we were. It evens out...climo is a b**ch isn't it? This year so far, we are playing the climo card on DC/BWI, but not on NYC yet. But it always comes back in the end. Just be patient...you will get your 20" CF jackpot...its only a matter of time. I must have missed the 65" in a 5 day period...was I absent that day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Fair post, but the one counter I would offer is that folks in the MA should be ammendable to getting screwed relative to sne, than vice versa. I'm not sure what you mean by the last part...are you claiming that its ok to b**ch about unreasonable expectations because someone from the M.A. does? I frown upon them too. Know your climo. That's why people like zwyts and I get along so well despite his abrasive board dynamic of trolling those who are unreasonable about their own BY snowfall chances..I think he has a lot of good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I must have missed the 65" in a 5 day period...was I absent that day.... Surely they must have missed you getting 125" in a season. Also getting over 70" in a season when the NAO was the most positive this last decade. ('07-'08)....don't pull that card because I can pull many more that went in your fortune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Surely they must have missed you getting 125" in a season. Also getting over 70" in a season when the NAO was the most positive this last decade. ('07-'08)....don't pull that card because I can pull many more that went in your fortune. They also had double their normal snowfall....that "card" is a joker. 70" is 70".....7" above climo....it still snows here in a +NAO, there it doesn't....know your climo, Will.....'cmon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 How much do you average Ray? 60"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 They also had double their normal snowfall....that "card" is a joker. 70" is 70".....7" above climo....it still snows here in a +NAO, there it doesn't....know your climo, Will.....'cmon lol So if your climo is 64 inches...then 125 inches would be what? Nearly double your normal snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 How much do you average Ray? 60"? A hair under....62" and change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So if your climo is 64 inches...then 125 inches would be what? Nearly double your normal snowfall? Yes.....I said "they ALSO had double their normal snowfall"...meaning I'm not sure why he threw that in my face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 A hair under....62" and change Okay..did you get screwed in 2/12/06? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Okay..did you get screwed in 2/12/06? No, I got about 16"....it was an ok event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No, I got about 16"....it was an ok event. So you do have pretty high expectations..nothing wrong with that though I can't blame you for wanting 2' monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 They also had double their normal snowfall....that "card" is a joker. 70" is 70".....7" above climo....it still snows here in a +NAO, there it doesn't....know your climo, Will.....'cmon lol If you think you can get "double your snowfall", then you are dreaming...it happens almost never for you, only 1995-1996 (never for me). Averaging more means you can't double it as easily...c'mon. Know your climo. You average over 3 times more than a place like DC...so its obviously harder to double your amount. Simple mathematics. And if you think going 10" over your climo is a joke in the most positive NAO winter this past decade and not worthy of mention, then I have no idea what to tell you. Understand that BWI gets as many 20" snowstorms as BOS does. You get more, but not by a lot. 20" storms are tough to come by...we all experienced everyone around us getting them last year, but most of us have accepted it and moved on, it happens. We had like 5-6 HECS in a 13 year period to their maybe 2? Again, climo is a b*tch. HECS is called that for a reason...they are historic. I think you will get one soon again, but no reason to pretend because people around you have gotten them recently, that you are all of the sudden "screwed". Maybe we got unlucky last year...we almost certainly did, but its over now. I'm in the same exact boat as you. I'm the snow capital of SNE of 18"+ events (don't let Pete read this or he will blow a gasket)...but I am still waiting since Jan 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Oh that's the one where I got a quarter inch coating. LOL But that winter despite being so mild...we kept finding ways to get wet snow events even after the pattern flipped in January. Okay..did you get screwed in 2/12/06? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 If you think you can get "double your snowfall", then you are dreaming...it happens almost never for you, only 1995-1996 (never for me). Averaging more means you can't double it as easily...c'mon. Know your climo. You average over 3 times more than a place like DC...so its obviously harder to double your amount. Simple mathematics. And if you think going 10" over your climo is a joke in the most positive NAO winter this past decade and not worthy of mention, then I have no idea what to tell you. Understand that BWI gets as many 20" snowstorms as BOS does. You get more, but not by a lot. 20" storms are tough to come by...we all experienced everyone around us getting them last year, but most of us have accepted it and moved on, it happens. We had like 5-6 HECS in a 13 year period to their maybe 2? Again, climo is a b*tch. HECS is called that for a reason...they are historic. I think you will get one soon again, but no reason to pretend because people around you have gotten them recently, that you are all of the sudden "screwed". Maybe we got unlucky last year...we almost certainly did, but its over now. I'm in the same exact boat as you. I'm the snow capital of SNE of 18"+ events (don't let Pete read this or he will blow a gasket)...but I am still waiting since Jan 2005. You missed my point...I didn't say I expect to double my snowfall again, I just said that they also did it in 1995-96....I realize it's much easier for them to do it and thus not as large an accomplishment, but I was just using a little Kevin esc word play. lol I agree that I need to tone it down and I will, but some are getting a little too jumpy lately, which I suppose is my fault. Good convo.....you were pretty fair with regard to acknowledging my perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 You missed my point...I didn't say I expect to double my snowfall again, I just said that they also did it in 1995-96....I realize it's much easier for them to do it and thus not as large an accomplishment, but I was just using a little Kevin esc word play. lol I agree that I need to tone it down and I will, but some are getting a little too jumpy lately, which I suppose is my fault. Good convo.....you were pretty fair with regard to acknowledging my perspective. Hey Ray, the weenie inside me is dying for a 25" snowstorm to crush us like Jan '05 or April '97 (cold style since we are in winter)....but I was just trying to interject some rational facts into the convo. We have a good chance here to get a good event...I just was trying to convince you to look at this threat as a great chance to put 8-10" on the board while many others on this board have sunny skies...that should be a plus. I won't leave this convo without saying that we still have a chance at a substantially larger event. It could be a lot larger, but there is no reason to go there yet. Even though we threw out some H5 analogs....no reason to go there yet. We'll see in another 2 days. All we can say is we have a chance at something big, and a slightly higher chance at a pretty decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hey Ray, the weenie inside me is dying for a 25" snowstorm to crush us like Jan '05 or April '97 (cold style since we are in winter)....but I was just trying to interject some rational facts into the convo. We have a good chance here to get a good event...I just was trying to convince you to look at this threat as a great chance to put 8-10" on the board while many others on this board have sunny skies...that should be a plus. I won't leave this convo without saying that we still have a chance at a substantially larger event. It could be a lot larger, but there is no reason to go there yet. Even though we threw out some H5 analogs....no reason to go there yet. We'll see in another 2 days. All we can say is we have a chance at something big, and a slightly higher chance at a pretty decent event. Cool....hopefully everyone realizes that half of what I said was tongue-in-cheek......0 animosity. I'll try to just not bother posting about it when I don't like a run, or just post matter-of-factly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hey Ray, the weenie inside me is dying for a 25" snowstorm to crush us like Jan '05 or April '97 (cold style since we are in winter)....but I was just trying to interject some rational facts into the convo. We have a good chance here to get a good event...I just was trying to convince you to look at this threat as a great chance to put 8-10" on the board while many others on this board have sunny skies...that should be a plus. I won't leave this convo without saying that we still have a chance at a substantially larger event. It could be a lot larger, but there is no reason to go there yet. Even though we threw out some H5 analogs....no reason to go there yet. We'll see in another 2 days. All we can say is we have a chance at something big, and a slightly higher chance at a pretty decent event. Do you think NYC can do well with the weekend storm or will the retrograde happen too late for us, Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 He has a very realistic shot of overtaking me on seasonal snowfall. Maybe not a probability, but very possible. Ray could get 10" out of this and I get 2" or 3"...given the way there may be a wnw to ese southern cut off. Hey Ray, the weenie inside me is dying for a 25" snowstorm to crush us like Jan '05 or April '97 (cold style since we are in winter)....but I was just trying to interject some rational facts into the convo. We have a good chance here to get a good event...I just was trying to convince you to look at this threat as a great chance to put 8-10" on the board while many others on this board have sunny skies...that should be a plus. I won't leave this convo without saying that we still have a chance at a substantially larger event. It could be a lot larger, but there is no reason to go there yet. Even though we threw out some H5 analogs....no reason to go there yet. We'll see in another 2 days. All we can say is we have a chance at something big, and a slightly higher chance at a pretty decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Do you think NYC can do well with the weekend storm or will the retrograde happen too late for us, Will? NYC is still in the game, but they are obviously less likely to get big snows than areas northeast in this setup. Its mostly a New England threat, but NYC is on the SW fringe of that threat so they still have a chance. I personally don't think the chance is good for something big (>4")...but it could still happen. Silly to rule anything out at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 How are the EC ens, Will... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.