weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 A lot of sites do it. http://raleighwx.ame...bHGHTNA108.html ohhh alright, yeah I know this. I guess I should refrain from posting when I'm drinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 http://greatlakes.sa...mouth_page.html plymouth FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 plymouth FTW Wish I had the page Forky made back at Eastern from Plymouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Wish I had the page Forky made back at Eastern from Plymouth Yeah, Its just a matter of preference, I like the SV site but everyone has there favorites.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's cool, Pete....I just get moody after not giving this place a break for a few....I'm sorry for the losses that your family suffered. No worries Ray, thanks. I've traveled a lot for skiing etc. but I always love getting back to the USA. I'm very proud to be an American. I truly believe, despite some of our miscues, that we are a great people. Think Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No worries Ray, thanks. I've traveled a lot for skiing etc. but I always love getting back to the USA. I'm very proud to be an American. I truly believe, despite some of our miscues, that we are a great people. Think Snow. From what I am told ski areas are sketchy right now, guess SR held up well but those VT areas with powder puff fake effect upslope are hurting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 From what I am told ski areas are sketchy right now, guess SR held up well but those VT areas with powder puff fake effect upslope are hurting. I'll let you know how WaWa is Tuesday night... my son has his first school ski club there on Friday... should they postpone it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 one of the mets i read andy from wx4castblog.com doesn't seem so amped about the day 5-6 threat "There is a chance that a secondary area of low pressure maytry to form near the east tip if Long Island or over southeast New England. While the possibility of this development appears to be slight at this time and if it were to occur it would be a weak system" i would be more gung-ho if andy was more bullish......same with the mets in the other region although most say "NYC northward are in the game" seems the big threat is late next week. and that some have seen this for a week. and it seems it would get the MA gang in the game and will probably put a hurtin on GC IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 re: H5. SREFs 21z unchanged pretty much from 15z. Same mean, less spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 one of the mets i read andy from wx4castblog.com doesn't seem so amped about the day 5-6 threat "There is a chance that a secondary area of low pressure maytry to form near the east tip if Long Island or over southeast New England. While the possibility of this development appears to be slight at this time and if it were to occur it would be a weak system" I wonder if he used one of these: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No wonder he hasn't shown up here lately ... he'd be tarred, feathered and ridden out of town on a rail. "Slight possibility" "it would be a weak system" ??? WTF ??? His solution is possible, but it seems more likely to me that something wicked this way comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 From what I am told ski areas are sketchy right now, guess SR held up well but those VT areas with powder puff fake effect upslope are hurting. The people we ski with have been all over the world skiing. They were impressed with the conditions at SR given the weather. That has a lot to do with I think their snow making early, and then they got lucky with 10-20" of legitimate snow. But in the end it was their snowmaking that saved them as most of the fallen snow had melted by Sunday yet the slopes were pretty good. I noticed they dropped to 88 open trails from 99. Let's face it, all ski slopes need a good 20" storm right now to help them along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No wonder he hasn't shown up here lately ... he'd be tarred, feathered and ridden out of town on a rail. "Slight possibility" "it would be a weak system" ??? WTF ??? His solution is possible, but it seems more likely to me that something wicked this way comes. well to add insult to injury (and don't worry i'm not gonna copy many more of these quotes from other region mets- cause i know many just cruise other regions) BUT i think this is key to get a different perspective and it seems rainshadow and ampsu..... see a mostly cold and dry pattern with the latter met saying " I really can't envision a scenario where you are wrong about the cold. There doesn't look to be a good MJO pulse for a while and there is no stopping the blocking. I was just peeking at today's 8-14d analog, and it shows the precip max in the Mid-South/OH Valley. That jives with what I saw at H5 in the models today. I was trying to figure out why both the GFS and Euro wanted to spring everything to the coast (reacting to the natural baroclinic zone?). It's clearly still possible we could get something around the 12th, particularly if the northern stream shortwave is faster, but the H5 pattern in the models this afternoon looked to me like it should cut up. geez neither seems bullish on either threat. . Hope they are in the minority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I wonder if he used one of these: I NEED you to tell me where I can get ACTUAL EPO data...last time I posted it you said it was wrong b/c that link used old data or something. I can't update my notebook until I have ACTUAL data b/c I need to redo everything b/c the EPO I have is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 geez neither seems bullish on either threat. . Hope they are in the minority. They are down in the Philly area. I wouldn't be bullish for down there right now either. This Jan 7-9 threat is mainly a New England threat...though it might get SW of here too if it goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 well to add insult to injury (and don't worry i'm not gonna copy many more of these quotes from other region mets- cause i know many just cruise other regions) BUT i think this is key to get a different perspective and it seems rainshadow and ampsu..... see a mostly cold and dry pattern with the latter met saying " geez neither seems bullish on either threat. . Hope they are in the minority. I dunno .. maybe they're talking about their regions. Aren't they in the Mid-Atl? Edit: Oops .. I see Will already covered that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I NEED you to tell me where I can get ACTUAL EPO data...last time I posted it you said it was wrong b/c that link used old data or something. I can't update my notebook until I have ACTUAL data b/c I need to redo everything b/c the EPO I have is incorrect. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/epo.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Is NOGAPS the crazy uncle? Know it was from earlier today but figured someone may have seen that i must have missed out on the explaination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 They are down in the Philly area. I wouldn't be bullish for down there right now either. This Jan 7-9 threat is mainly a New England threat...though it might get SW of here too if it goes nuts. i understand that will....but it seems they were thinking the same way andy was about the first threat as well.....NBD even up here. I may be wrong but that was my interpretation from reading their threads. and i realize that is an option....but i don't want it weighed as likely by many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 well to add insult to injury (and don't worry i'm not gonna copy many more of these quotes from other region mets- cause i know many just cruise other regions) BUT i think this is key to get a different perspective and it seems rainshadow and ampsu..... see a mostly cold and dry pattern with the latter met saying " geez neither seems bullish on either threat. . Hope they are in the minority. Well if you were in Philly...would you be optimistic? Put another way, I think Philly got 15-20 inches of snow in 1993-94. Boston got 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/epo.data Don, I think that is the old EP/NP data...which has the opposite sign of the EPO. So for those using that list, flip the sign and it should work fairly well as EPO data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i understand that will....but it seems they were thinking the same way andy was about the first threat as well.....NBD even up here. I may be wrong but that was my interpretation from reading their threads. and i realize that is an option....but i don't want it weighed as likely by many. Andy is in Upstate NY and this upcoming storm is likely NBD for them either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Is NOGAPS the crazy uncle? Know it was from earlier today but figured someone may have seen that i must have missed out on the explaination. No ... UKMET is the crazy uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/epo.data Don, I think that is the old EP/NP data...which has the opposite sign of the EPO. So for those using that list, flip the sign and it should work fairly well as EPO data. This is where I'm confused So basically just flip the sign? If that's the case than I probably don't have to redo my entire notebook, just make a note that the color sings are opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i understand that will....but it seems they were thinking the same way andy was about the first threat as well.....NBD even up here. I may be wrong but that was my interpretation from reading their threads. and i realize that is an option....but i don't want it weighed as likely by many. Well I didn't see them make any type of reference to how the storm would be in our region...maybe I missed it though. I would leave all options on the table at this point...we have a decent shot at a big event but we could also just get nuisance snows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No ... UKMET is the crazy uncle. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Don, I think that is the old EP/NP data...which has the opposite sign of the EPO. So for those using that list, flip the sign and it should work fairly well as EPO data. The site from which I took it states: East Pacific/North Pacific Oscillation: From NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This index replaces the old EP index which is no longer maintained by CPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The site from which I took it states: East Pacific/North Pacific Oscillation: From NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This index replaces the old EP index which is no longer maintained by CPC. That's an interesting explanation...I wonder if "EP" is really "EPO" to them. I do know that the signs for each month look opposite of what the EPO (as we know it as) is. Like for example, Feb 2007 had a -EPO, but it shows up as positive on the data set there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Andy is in Upstate NY and this upcoming storm is likely NBD for them either. No crap. look i hope we get something very nice. I hope this is not another situ where models don't figure it out to 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 That's an interesting explanation...I wonder if "EP" is really "EPO" to them. I do know that the signs for each month look opposite of what the EPO (as we know it as) is. Like for example, Feb 2007 had a -EPO, but it shows up as positive on the data set there. Actually the dataset looks really strange looking at it closer. It seems to match more recently, but doesn't match before last winter or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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