weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This just makes me more confused I have no clue what to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No crap. look i hope we get something very nice. I hope this is not another situ where models don't figure it out to 48 hours out. Not much you can do but watch the models role out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Actually the dataset looks really strange looking at it closer. It seems to match more recently, but doesn't match before last winter or two. I agree. Unfortunately, I don't have the old EPO values. A similar situation existed when the new NAO values were adopted. Under the old values, 3/3/1962 had a record -6.967 NAO. The new values show -1.744. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Andy is in Upstate NY and this upcoming storm is likely NBD for them either. Yup. His thoughts are very useful to the few of us on the frontier. Inter-region joking aside, a lot of the focus is (rightfully given populations) is what's happening from Worcester to points north/south/east. His comments/knowledge help us out here an awful lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No worries Ray, thanks. I've traveled a lot for skiing etc. but I always love getting back to the USA. I'm very proud to be an American. I truly believe, despite some of our miscues, that we are a great people. Think Snow. Amen Brother....warts and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well if you were in Philly...would you be optimistic? Put another way, I think Philly got 15-20 inches of snow in 1993-94. Boston got 96. And I was living there...for the worse ice storm I ever saw in an urban area and for every single storm that turned over to sleet and rain while newark north piled up snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This NAM run appears to be sub par. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I agree. Unfortunately, I don't have the old EPO values. A similar situation existed when the new NAO values were adopted. Under the old values, 3/3/1962 had a record -6.967 NAO. The new values show -1.744. I believe that was the month of the greatest jersey shore noreaster. broke an inlet through long beach island. Blocking will do that sorta thang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This NAM run appears to be sub par. Noticing that. NAM at the end of its range ... you know the drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is what is so confusing, to me at least, about global indices. I know this thread isn't for that but I think this is somewhat important. What's the correct way? What's the most accurate way to measure these indices? Like for the NAO you have the CPC version, Hurrell's version, then Hurrell's PC version, now the EPO is different? There is also a difference with the PDO...NCDC's and Matua's method. It just makes it so confusing to someone like myself to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This NAM run appears to be sub par. I don't know what to make of it. It seems to be consolidating the ULL over the GL. It has a very broad area of SLP off the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I believe that was the month of the greatest jersey shore noreaster. broke an inlet through long beach island. Blocking will do that sorta thang. You are correct about the March 1962 nor'easter. It was certainly an extreme event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't know what to make of it. It seems to be consolidating the ULL over the GL. It has a very broad area of SLP off the Carolinas. It does want to start with the inverted trof. That seems to be a constant on all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't know what to make of it. It seems to be consolidating the ULL over the GL. It has a very broad area of SLP off the Carolinas. It will come N as the 500 low dives SE, where it ends up is anybody's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Noticing that. NAM at the end of its range ... you know the drill. more interested in what it shows through the first 48 hours in terms of the spv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't know what to make of it. It seems to be consolidating the ULL over the GL. It has a very broad area of SLP off the Carolinas. Looks like some inverted trough between the 2........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 93-94 was horrible down around PHL....so much ice.....unbelievable ice everywhere.....disaster. And I was living there...for the worse ice storm I ever saw in an urban area and for every single storm that turned over to sleet and rain while newark north piled up snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 93-94 was horrible down around PHL....so much ice.....unbelievable ice everywhere.....disaster. And yet in SNE, it was among the best winters ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It will come N as the 500 low dives SE, where it ends up is anybody's guess. Primary is like 200m due north of the 18z position thru 78h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like some inverted trough between the 2........ Yeah, there is clearly an inverted trough feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Good luck with the rest of the 00z suite. Hopefully, we'll see some good stuff! I'll catch up wtih them in the a.m. Im out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 My guess is if there is going to be any revelopment offshore it will be too late save for northern areas. That ULL is too far N imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Even with this positively sh*tful run, everyone has a few inches in the bank by 84 hours and still ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And yet in SNE, it was among the best winters ever. 3rd snowiest at BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 As long as you see the PV spinning in the lakes without moving much east, it will have the chance to rotate a vortmax below us and extend a lobe or arm SE for redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Trying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It looks like on the last panel it trys to form a low near DC as energy looks like its diving into the backside of the trough as it digs south, But its the nam at 84 will see how the rest of 00z goes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 As long as you see the PV spinning in the lakes without moving much east, it will have the chance to rotate a vortmax below us and extend a lobe or arm SE for redevelopment. Ok, now that I am looking at it, there is energy coming out of Manitoba that may spur redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i'm looking at it...no real interpretationskills...but there is one low way out to sea with an inverted trof connection to the upper low? and then another low forms behind it closer to the coast? This would have it snowing in NE on Thursday eve. Looking at 500 does the spv ever really drop south? looks to be over ne great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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