Hurricane Isaias

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m going with an overnight/morning peak of 105 kts and a LF at 80 kts 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

God this is an ugly looking storm.  Am I the only one?

This was never going to be a storm you make into a screensaver. It might make a brief run at Cat 3 overnight before the shear/dry air twin hammer hit tomorrow. Like others said it might resemble more a mid latitude nor’easter eaten away by dry air when it comes in. Still a significant surge/wind impact near landfall and big flood/tornado threat east of the center where training bands set up. 

[Coach McGuirk]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This was never going to be a storm you make into a screensaver. It might make a brief run at Cat 3 overnight before the shear/dry air twin hammer hit tomorrow. Like others said it might resemble more a mid latitude nor’easter eaten away by dry air when it comes in. Still a significant surge/wind impact near landfall and big flood/tornado threat east of the center where training bands set up. 

Latest hurricane ever!

[BooneWX]

9 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

God this is an ugly looking storm.  Am I the only one?

We’ve just seen a lot of eye candy the last few years in low sheer environments. This is a gulf cane of old. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Next recon will be telling. 

[NavarreDon]

Sometimes we get spoiled by the symmetry of perfect monster canes. I’m one who marvels at their beauty! I can tell you that as someone who sits in the crosshairs of this system, regardless of dry air & especially shear…I’m still quite fidgety tonight!


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[Coach McGuirk]

My cousin lives on Pine Island, Florida.  She was actually glad there was a strong El-Nino.  She knows the weather like me.  She is tired of the hurricanes. 

[BooneWX]

Not seeing a whole lot of chatter online regarding the inland wind threat. A broadening cyclone, fast motion and a tight gradient with the HP to the NE screams widespread 50-70 mph gusts that go on a lot longer than your typical system. Hope folks are prepared. 

[Coach McGuirk]

It's a quick hitter and dead. 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

We’ve just seen a lot of eye candy the last few years in low sheer environments. This is a gulf cane of old. 

Yep, it's your Opal 1995, Dennis 2005, Lili 2002 type. Although those peaked higher than this one will so this will likely be even weaker coming in. The more recent storms like Laura and Michael are the exception in the N Gulf.

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Idk…I’ve been a believer in GDM and the ensembles get bullish tonight on the peak. LF intensity is anyone’s guess but I’m probably with you on 90-95mph at landfall.

Love me some tropical sunsets. Be safe down there. I’m not chasing this one (wife’s birthday lol)

New one should be out there in a few hours. Perfect timing imo.

We'll see...should interesting to watch play out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, it's your Opal 1995, Dennis 2005, Lili 2002 type. Although those peaked higher than this one will so this will likely be even weaker coming in. The more recent storms like Laura and Michael are the exception in the N Gulf.

Yea, I brought up Lily and Opal yesterday...Ivan was another.

[Nomz]

Really starting to look quite nice on IR

[Radtechwxman]

Going to pass over that warm eddy to with much improved structure now. Shear shouldn't be too bad overnight. I could see a cat 3 peak potentially. By afternoon tomorrow it will start feeling effects of much higher shear and eventually drier air towards coast. 

[NavarreDon]

I’m going with an overnight/morning peak of 105 kts and a LF at 80 kts 

Looking at the presentation on the WV right now and this seems very plausible.


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[GaWx]

Josh is in Pensacola as he chose Isaias over Simon but wishes there were two of him so they could chase both lol:
 

https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2108365382130045125
 

[NorthHillsWx]

Bet this is close to major already 

[Radtechwxman]

0z hrrr and nam absolutely shred this just before landfall. Halficane 

[Tyler Penland]

54 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Not seeing a whole lot of chatter online regarding the inland wind threat. A broadening cyclone, fast motion and a tight gradient with the HP to the NE screams widespread 50-70 mph gusts that go on a lot longer than your typical system. Hope folks are prepared. 

Tornado threat for AL/GA will be significant as well. Atlanta will be under the gun from both strong easterly winds and the tornado threat on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk on Saturday for the area currently under a slight from the SPC if things hold serve.

[Radtechwxman]

Nhc has it hitting 115 now. Not surprising based on structure improvement. 105 mph now and 969 mb. 

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Nhc has it hitting 115 now. Not surprising based on structure improvement. 105 mph now and 969 mb. 

Also has it pretty much on the coast at 100 mph now 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

48 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Tornado threat for AL/GA will be significant as well. Atlanta will be under the gun from both strong easterly winds and the tornado threat on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk on Saturday for the area currently under a slight from the SPC if things hold serve.

If that's the case, then there's no way they play the Georgia-Alabama game as scheduled.

[GaWx]

59 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Tornado threat for AL/GA will be significant as well. Atlanta will be under the gun from both strong easterly winds and the tornado threat on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk on Saturday for the area currently under a slight from the SPC if things hold serve.

 So, with all of the talk about the safety of folks in Tuscaloosa for GA/FL (which I agree is warranted), why doesn’t the media seem to care much about the safety of folks going to Bobby Dodd Sat afternoon, which will likely have worse conditions than Tuscaloosa in the mid to late afternoon (gametime in ATL) because worst conditions at Tuscaloosa should end by early afternoon. This is such a silly/stupid double standard.

——————

FFC’s not playing around:

.FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 
MORNING... 
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY 
MORNING... 

——————
SATURDAY
SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY 
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 
UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

[Radtechwxman]

9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Also has it pretty much on the coast at 100 mph now 

Yeah looks like its downfall could happen fast and it being a small storm make it even more susceptible 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If that's the case, then there's no way they play the Georgia-Alabama game as scheduled.

ATL’s looking worse right now at Duke/GT gametime than Tuscaloosa’s looking even during most of afternoon well before kickoff. Why with all of the warranted concern for GA/AL are the media hardly, if any, talking about any concern about Duke-Georgia Tech in ATL? Can you explain this double standard? Well, I realize way more interest and of course $ are involved with GA/AL, but that’s beside the point of concern about human beings wherever they are.

[Floydbuster]

I am not impressed with the satellite signature. 

[Floydbuster]

 

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, cardinalland said:

The hurricane was declared as such at 11:30pm eastern on 10/7 after a Hurricane Hunters pass. So it’s a little dicey.

 

Of course there’s a good chance 1905 had a hurricane earlier in their season that we didn’t detect

For those who didn’t realize it, 1905’s very late 1st on record H was similarly powerful to Isaias with it peaking as a MH (cat 3) and that was also during El Niño.

*Edited: it was not the last storm of the season at genesis but was when it degenerated below TC status at its end.

[Windspeed]

Best structure Isaias has had in its lifecycle so far. Perhaps a window here for some brief intensification prior to increasing shear today.