October 2026 general discussion

[Brewbeer]

looks like a low of 58 here

[CoastalWx]

We can officially uninstall after tomorrow. All good things must come to an end. 

[Cold Miser]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We can officially uninstall after tomorrow. All good things must come to an end. 

I did it last Sunday when the rain was blowing sideways off the lake and getting in around the unit.  Floor and walls were soaked so I said, f.uck it, it's out now so I might as well store that shit away. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We can officially uninstall after tomorrow. All good things must come to an end. 

Won’t need AC but last half of month warms up relatively speaking 

[Typhoon Tip]

does look like the 2nd step down is nearing...  This one will introduce for the first time blue contours for those that need pretty colors for visual aid

One thing I'm noticing is that already, the S/W translation speeds ( the wave's movement through the field, not the flow moving through and around the wave) are moving very quickly.   I'd be prepared for haulin' ass wave speeds this winter - problematically.  Probably effecting storm morphologies and headaches.

[Damage In Tolland]

Another cloudy day that was forecast sunny .visible is ass

[dendrite]

GWDLT

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GWDLT

You will soon. They’re coming 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GWDLT

Even that may be in trouble in a couple hours.

Not sure interpretation of the model -suggested clouds is correct, or if the models themselves are erroring too optimistic but I'd go under MOS with that satellite look in SNE.

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

does look like the 2nd step down is nearing...  This one will introduce for the first time blue contours for those that need pretty colors for visual aid

One thing I'm noticing is that already, the S/W translation speeds ( the wave's movement through the field, not the flow moving through and around the wave) are moving very quickly.   I'd be prepared for haulin' ass wave speeds this winter - problematically.  Probably effecting storm morphologies and headaches.

Well this past weekends system(flow) certainly wasn’t moving fast at all.   Too Many nuances and intricacies relative to any future particular system, to say definitively imo. 

[CoastalWx]

AIFS says no warmth 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

AIFS says no warmth 

It’s had the hot hand…hard to bet against it currently, right? 

[dendrite]

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You will soon. They’re coming 

Enjoying it while it lasts

[WinterWolf]

11 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Good point about 30-year "normals."   That period is arbitrary and we just decided to pick that as a base b/c it fits w/ human lifetimes as to a "long time," and the ever present recency bias, meaning what is going on now and recent *is* how it always has and will be.  From a long-term climate and geological POV, that is nothing and not representative at all.  Proverbial drop in the bucket.

For instance, a full AMO cycle when it comes to Atlantic TC activity (up and down) is 50-90 years based on TC activity going back to the mid-19th century, so 30-year normals fall flat here.  How about base conditions when it comes to ENSO?  In the last 30 years, the base state of ENSO has become more La Nina (see RONI graph attached).  Before that (going back to 1950), it was more El Nino base, but given we do not have enough or accurate measurements overall prior to this period to fully quantify ENSO states, we do not know the full cycle here, let alone if there is coherent one.  So again, 30-year normals fall flat.

Also, when calculating changes over time, I have seen some manipulation to give desired results.  For instance, I saw a current temp anomaly plot for Australia from the BoM, and it said using normals 1961-1990.  Well, you see the issue here, given mean warming since 1850, using normals farther back will give you greater temps anomalies to current.  So what is the "correct" base reference here as to what 30-year normal period to use historically?  Why not a 40-year, 50?, 100?

And using the Industrial Revolution as a start point as if this point is what is "normal" for the globe overall?  That is ridiculous and cherry-picking given the geological record.  There are not only Milankovitch cycles, which work in the 10,000s of years, but also there are shorter solar cycles w/ the Sun -- Bray (~2500 yr cycle) and Eddy (~1000 yr cycle).  So again what is "normal" can not be determined in just 30 years.  It is square pegs round holes.

And yet another factor,  how standards/practices/technology change over time.  One of the most obvious in wx?  What we call a TC now vs. decades ago, which makes it looks like the numbers of named storms is steadily increasing.  And not to exclude snow weenies, how about this?
https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

For temp, it used to be glass bulb thermometers, now it is largely digital.  One thing about digital is that is can record continuous temps, and thus you can start doing calculations in many, many time periods.  It used to be hourly for a day, but now you can go down to the min or even more.  When calculating avgs now, you can pick and chose and each one can give different results.  Also, digital can record instantaneous spikes in temp.  Yes, ASOS uses a 5-min temp avg, but not all temp sensors out there do this.  So more absolute extremes in temp are recorded, and this influence record temps for a given location, and sometimes are used new records when it is local artificial heat source contamination.

 

100%.   Great post, and info. Appreciate the explanations.  

[Snowedin]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

We can officially uninstall after tomorrow. All good things must come to an end. 

I’m not switching over until after Christmas Eve. Then it’s official.

[ineedsnow]

Raining in leominster

[DirtySnowDen]

Has any one looked at the visible GOES-East this morning? 

[weatherwiz]

Kind of surprised SPC doesn't have general thunder extending into the Northeast tomorrow

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

AIFS says no warmth 

we got the old unmanned fire hose across the continent.  

these guidance are flip flopping the jet and wave train because they're missing underpinning planetary wave signal.  It's like all S/Ws and no L/W.  without the L/W rail system, the S/W train slips off the tracks on ever model run.. heh

[CT Rain]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another cloudy day that was forecast sunny .visible is ass

We had mostly cloudy for the day. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

We had mostly cloudy for the day. 

All week forecasts have had partly / mostly sunny and all week has been mostly ass. Not specifically the Wrys and Crew , just in general. 

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Raining in leominster

Can you find an underpass to get under?

[dendrite]

Still cloud free but will probably be BKN/OVC within an hour.

Goodbye warm season. See you again on 12/24.

[weatherwiz]

Where are people getting these sunny forecasts from these past few days? Was always going to be clouds rolling in 

[Layman]

Drought monitor claims the recent rain had no impact in NH. 
My totals at home are:

May 7.37”

June 3.62”

July 2.75”

August 3.26”

September 5.87”

Total 22.87” 

Is just under two feet of rain low?

[Cold Miser]

Heading to the Adirondacks tonight and tomorrow...Expecting foliage to be approaching peak in some spots.

[tamarack]

27 minutes ago, Layman said:

Drought monitor claims the recent rain had no impact in NH. 
My totals at home are:

May 7.37”

June 3.62”

July 2.75”

August 3.26”

September 5.87”

Total 22.87” 

Is just under two feet of rain low?

That's averaging 4.57"/month.  Projected over 12 months, it's nearly 55".  I'd guess that's a bit AN; 45-50 seems more likely.  My average here is currently 48.6".

Foggy 50 has turned to blue sky 60s.