October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Also, and something @CoastalWxshould pay attention more to, the high in Quebec is 5 mb stronger than fcst.  15z Wed it was 1041 mb, which is an exceptional high pressure value for this area in Sep.  00z it was 1038 mb.

So again, don't underestimate the wind potential here.  It is just as much about the high to the N than the low to the S!  The high holds its ground for the entire event.
 

1041 is very impressive. 

[vortex95]

41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I agree. That's why I think it's important to let the science do the speaking. I'm no met obviously, but I still think it's possible to communicate meteorology in a way that doesn't add all the extra nonsense that pushes people from being effectively informed in the first place. But I think the lack of any mention by the NHC is a pretty significant tell at this stage. Maybe we get some late acknowledgement from them as the system is developing, but I'm not counting on it. 

Back to the system...even though it's shallow, if anything the GFS and Euro are more aligned on this being warm core than they were a few days ago. 

We don't get these often, and I'd argue that it's not insignificant if we see this really consolidate as it's crossing the Gulf Stream and organizing on Friday. 

If this takes longer to pull together it's weaker and more strung out and more mundane...but we don't see this signal often. 

 

Prob of TS graphic from ECMWF...great!  Did not know about that from WxModels.  The ECMWF site itself has it as well.
 

[WxWatcher007]

FWIW, the GFS is slightly stronger and further west. 

[vortex95]

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I agree. That's why I think it's important to let the science do the speaking. I'm no met obviously, but I still think it's possible to communicate meteorology in a way that doesn't add all the extra nonsense that pushes people from being effectively informed in the first place. But I think the lack of any mention by the NHC is a pretty significant tell at this stage. Maybe we get some late acknowledgement from them as the system is developing, but I'm not counting on it. 

Back to the system...even though it's shallow, if anything the GFS and Euro are more aligned on this being warm core than they were a few days ago. 

We don't get these often, and I'd argue that it's not insignificant if we see this really consolidate as it's crossing the Gulf Stream and organizing on Friday. 

If this takes longer to pull together it's weaker and more strung out and more mundane...but we don't see this signal often. 

 

Those TC probs are *non-trivial*.  Certainly enough to say something in the TWO, so you see what I mean.  This is not a far-fetched situation from a model probability standpoint, and lots of decision go/no go as from model probs.  As I like to say, you can't have it both ways here!  Highlight systems w/ 0/0 percent chance and then ignore something like this?

And beyond the the model probs, from a empirical fcst skill/experience, such a formation is quite possible.  So objective end subjective combined, that's how to do it!
 

[DirtySnowDen]

The uncertainty is what’s has my “brain-a-tickin’

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

FWIW, the GFS is slightly stronger and further west. 

Picking up on the stronger high pressure…?  And we are getting closer in now, maybe it’s getting a clue?   And yes…that 1041 high is very impressive, have we ever/how often have we seen that in September while a system will be climbing the coast? 

[DirtySnowDen]

I’d like this thing to go OTS, but considering the time frame, I’m expecting something of a “landfall” in RI, the high pressure to the north is going to be the determining factor and how it splits. Another smaller, yet important factor, is going to be how strong the Low deepens upon their “dance.” 

[Prismshine Productions]

Wonder if Polo being Polo is downstream pumping to cause a bit more atmospheric friction?... It was not forecasted to get as strong as it did

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Picking up on the stronger high pressure…?  And we are getting closer in now, maybe it’s getting a clue?   And yes…that 1041 high is very impressive, have we ever/how often have we seen that in September while a system will be climbing the coast? 

Maybe it’s getting a clue, but there’s still a ways to go before we have our well formed low. 

At the moment it’s still a highly strung out weak low attached to a frontal boundary.

 

[Cyclone-68]

Probably a dumb question but what was the strongest sub tropical storm to ever happen in the Atlantic?

[Prismshine Productions]

Probably a dumb question but what was the strongest sub tropical storm to ever happen in the Atlantic?

Unnamed Subtropical Storm 1968
85mph
979mb

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

He loves absolutism….and it’s backfired on him more than once. 

Dude trust me. Scotty knows 

[CoastalWx]

Euro trying for nj again. Lol 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro trying for nj again. Lol 

Robust but south. Gotta imagine the Euro and GFS meet in the middle as they usually do. 

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Picking up on the stronger high pressure…?  And we are getting closer in now, maybe it’s getting a clue?   And yes…that 1041 high is very impressive, have we ever/how often have we seen that in September while a system will be climbing the coast? 

I can't recall, neither such a strong high and (non-tropical) low pressure in September in these areas.  This would be impressive for mid-winter!

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro trying for nj again. Lol 

That's a very subtropical storm structure 

[DirtySnowDen]

This is “The Perfect Storm”…..all major models show the eye developing at the 250mb level. Also, considering the tilted nature of its development, it will be a busy day later today. You have a strong tropical Burp crashing into a strong high that splits. With the full moon, this has distaster written all over it for CT, RI and southeastern MA.
 

I’m hungry and I hope I get to eat my words.

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro trying for nj again. Lol 

The 00z ECMWF track now gives it a sig better chances for going ST or even T w/ it farther S initially.  The warm core is very apparent.  20 C at 925, 12 C at 700, and -5 C at 500 when it it close to 39.7N / 71.8W.  Those are Sandy profile numbers from recon when it warm secluded and formed a small inner core the day of landfall (looked a lot like the Perfect Storm 1991 hurricane) after looking less tropical from when it was in the Bahamas to this point.

And as a result, TS development probs has increased significantly to as high as 80% (60% on previous run).  And yet nothing from NHC on its TWO.

 

[jbenedet]

27 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

The 00z ECMWF track now gives it a sig better chances for going ST or even T w/ it farther S initially.  The warm core is very apparent.  20 C at 925, 12 C at 700, and -5 C at 500 when it it close to 39.7N / 71.8W.  Those are Sandy profile numbers from recon when it warm secluded and formed a small inner core the day of landfall (looked a lot like the Perfect Storm 1991 hurricane) after looking less tropical from when it was in the Bahamas to this point.

And as a result, TS development probs has increased significantly to as high as 80% (60% on previous run).  And yet nothing from NHC on its TWO.

 

I have long been a critic of the NHC on topics like this. Way behind the ball. I think they need to reconsider their mission statement.

NHC tracking fish storms in the middle of the Atlantic….some 2000+miles away from any civilization. Meanwhile 10+ million Americans exposed to a modeled tropical type storm inside 48 hours and they haven’t even flagged it.

 

[vortex95]

On the tropical forum, it was pointed out the high 1000-500 thk.  The initial low pressure center currently is S of the 576 thk line, and it wraps up and pools this value into a discrete closed contour!  That's what Sandy had offshore E of ORF the day of landfall.  576+ is more than enough for a solid warm core that is not shallow (500 and below). 

[ineedsnow]

After looking at all the 0z models it seems we got a good storm on the way! About damn time this boring weather ends!! 

[DirtySnowDen]

You can see the skew-Ts for yourself, this things is getting funneled in cold air from aloft, as its surface low is feeding off a near-record or (record?) warm Atlantic.

[Spaizzo]

I agree. That's why I think it's important to let the science do the speaking. I'm no met obviously, but I still think it's possible to communicate meteorology in a way that doesn't add all the extra nonsense that pushes people from being effectively informed in the first place. But I think the lack of any mention by the NHC is a pretty significant tell at this stage. Maybe we get some late acknowledgement from them as the system is developing, but I'm not counting on it. 
Back to the system...even though it's shallow, if anything the GFS and Euro are more aligned on this being warm core than they were a few days ago. 


We don't get these often, and I'd argue that it's not insignificant if we see this really consolidate as it's crossing the Gulf Stream and organizing on Friday. 


If this takes longer to pull together it's weaker and more strung out and more mundane...but we don't see this signal often. 
 

I am more of a winter lurker. I came on because my husband said we are getting a little rain and some gusts of wind. It’s no big deal here only the cape. I just saw a post from a local TV Met that intrigued me enough to come back to check here for the bigger picture.

Super storm sandy, remnants of ida, Irene, flash flooding here in Seymour and Oxford over a trivial rain event are engrained in my memory and how many were caught off guard. While sandy people prepped more for wind rather than flooding.

One thing I’ve learned is people don’t believe the forecasts unless it’s labeled something. Here in New England flash flooding is often warned about rarely happens in a devastating ways. They’re warned but people just sort of give it a meh we always get those nothings going to happen. Meh those weather guys are always wrong. What they don’t do is listen and understand the chance is there. I have to say I’ve seen more downplaying of this more than hype on social media.


.

[vortex95]

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I have long been a critic of the NHC on topics like this. Way behind the ball. I think they need to reconsider their mission statement.

NHC tracking fish storms in the middle of the Atlantic….some 2000+miles away from any civilization. Meanwhile 10+ million Americans exposed to a modeled tropical type storm inside 48 hours and they haven’t even flagged it.

 

Yes, inconsistent operational TC forecasting here.  The fact a system is close to land or not should be irrelevant.  The atmosphere does not abide by our rules and policies, it does what it does, and we need to do things according to it!

And as noted, people in the field notice these things, and are valid concerns/complaints.  And w/ social media these days, that can result in a PR disaster.  You can't brush such things under the rug anymore hoping ppl will not notice.

And in this case, it is not a low probability event.  Some models are showing it clearly, and when you combine that w/ practical empirical fcst skill/experience?
 

[ineedsnow]

Hopefully the RRFS can score a win for the first time ever 

[ineedsnow]

980mb at hr72 that would be fun

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Robust but south. Gotta imagine the Euro and GFS meet in the middle as they usually do. 

I think so. Consensus seems like a loop south of BID, maybe west to south of ern LI and then lifting NE from there.  
 

Seems like biggest question is angle or approach before loop. That will dictate best winds and potential coastal flooding. 

[vortex95]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hopefully the RRFS can score a win for the first time ever 

Notice how tight pres gradient is near the center and it wanes outside of that?  That's tropical structure.

[vortex95]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think so. Consensus seems like a loop south of BID, maybe west to south of ern LI and then lifting NE from there.  
 

Seems like biggest question is angle or approach before loop. That will dictate best winds and potential coastal flooding. 

No, the biggest question is if NHC will ever acknowledge this thing as potential ST or T transition and name it operationally if it does what some models are showing!
 

[kdxken]

54 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hopefully the RRFS can score a win for the first time ever