September Banter 2026

[George BM]

Monday, September 7, 2026 8:25AM EDT

The past week has been one of the most active weeks of stormy weather in the region for a very long time with multiple MCSs and derechos causing repeated instances of widespread tree damage and even some structural damage with the northwest flow around the ridge of high pressure that has been parked to our west-southwest. During the September 1^st through September 6^th period much of the region has received 8 to 14 inches of rain with most areas seeing peak wind gusts from severe thunderstorms during this period in the 70 to 85 mph range. Now we watch as a deepening trough drops into the region with causing the flow locally to back to southerly. With a surface low developing nearby over the region in response to this trough southeasterly surface flow will bring in mid 70sF dewpoints into the region. With Pwats also rising above 2.25 inches and CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg along with tall skinnier CAPE profiles. Storms that develop will be very efficient rain producers. With the strongest forcing for accent located over the region numerous storms will be able to develop and train over the same areas leading to a significant flash flooding threat given all of the recent rain.

Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms will train over the region from late morning through this evening before we see a more uniform area of heavy rain over the region through the night tonight as the surface low strengthens and moves to the east over the northern Chesapeake. There will be a risk for a few tornadoes through the afternoon with embedded supercells given decent low-level shear near the surface low (effective SRH of up to 300 m2/s2) and decent enough 0-3km CAPE (>100 J/kg).

When all is set and done by tomorrow morning most areas would have received an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain with localized areas that get under training bands in excess of 10 inches leading to major flooding. Always remember to turn around don’t drown. It’s not worth it!

...

[CAPE]

The look on Kittrage's face at 12:35

 

[MN Transplant]

I just saw the catch.  Wow.

[RickinBaltimore]

Moo.