September 2026

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, TriPol said:

October 2019 hit 93 degrees.

Really unusual fall into spring pattern that year. All-time October warmth followed by not much winter to speak of. Then the record late T of snow in May. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct top 5 warmest maximum temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2019	96	0
2	1941	93	0
3	1949	92	0
4	1959	91	0
5	1939	90	0
-	1938	90	0
-	1908	90	0

 

Monthly Data for October 2019 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	96
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	95
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	94
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	94
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	93
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	91
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	91
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	91
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	91
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	90

 

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, dWave said:

Is the steadier/heavier rain trending later in the day? Ive seen some forecast hinting at that but others not so much. Im trying to figure how doable some outdoor events will be Sun mid morning to early afternoon

Looks like it

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs:

PHL: 87
New Brnswck: 86
ACY: 85
EWR: 84
BLM: 84
JFK: 83
TTN: 83
TEB: 82
LGA: 81
NYC: 80
ISP: 80

[LibertyBell]

On 9/17/2026 at 1:50 PM, straphanger said:

Temps are definitely overperforming with more sun that expected this morning.  LGA is reporting 84 against a 80 degree NWS high.  My station alone hit 87 for a brief period earlier today.  Had to turn on the AC again after I thought I was done with it for the year.

Lol there is a double standard of heat vs ac. Most would be ecstatic if they didn't need to use heat in the winter. 

On 9/17/2026 at 2:08 PM, steve392 said:

Disgusting out.  87 and just feel humid as hell.  Getting dark to my northwest too. 

It really wasn't that bad, try a cold shower and some ice cream.

On 9/17/2026 at 8:22 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will see temperatures top out in the upper 70s. Cooler air will return  for the weekend.

A rainy period could develop late Sunday and continue into early next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool. The chance that the region could see its coolest air mass this fall arrive toward midweek next week has increased.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -31.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.934 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.0° (0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Don, Fall doesn't begin until Tuesday.

On 9/17/2026 at 9:31 PM, ForestHillWx said:

71/69… gross outside 

Nope perfect morning weather.

On 9/17/2026 at 9:54 PM, TriPol said:

I won't miss this weather at all.

You're strange. Days of clouds and rain is MUCH worse.

23 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nasty out 

Nothing a pint of ice cream and a cold shower won't fix.

 

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Especially with the most recent runs moving to cutoff the upper low under the big ridge.

 

 

 

What is causing these large highs to our north?

4 hours ago, Diana W said:

I hope the rain holds off until the evening.  I'm having a house warming party Sunday afternoon and there's 20 people coming.  I'm hoping to be able to use the deck for an indoor/ outdoor party.

This is why you need a covered deck.

 

 

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Today's Highs:

PHL: 87
New Brnswck: 86
ACY: 85
EWR: 84
BLM: 84
JFK: 83
TTN: 83
TEB: 82
LGA: 81
NYC: 80
ISP: 80

Wow 10 degrees lower than JFK here, 73 degrees. It was the perfect day.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Really unusual fall into spring pattern that year. All-time October warmth followed by not much winter to speak of. Then the record late T of snow in May. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct top 5 warmest maximum temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2019	96	0
2	1941	93	0
3	1949	92	0
4	1959	91	0
5	1939	90	0
-	1938	90	0
-	1908	90	0

 

Monthly Data for October 2019 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	96
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	95
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	94
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	94
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	93
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	91
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	91
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	91
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	91
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	90

 

 

I loved that fall but that other fall when we had 0 rainfall in October and multiple 80 degrees readings and even mid 80s in November was even better. No heat until November 13th!

[MJO812]

0z Models are back to being wetter for next week. Coastal is closer to the coast.

[TriPol]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

0z Models are back to being wetter for next week. Coastal is closer to the coast.

We're not hitting 70 next week. Amazing. Break out the sweaters!

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, Fall doesn't begin until Tuesday.

 

Yes, in terms of the fall equinox, fall begins Tuesday. Meteorological fall, which is used for climate data purposes, began on September 1st.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What is causing these large highs to our north?

It’s part of the same pattern which produced the record 600 dm pattern this week. The strength of that ridge may be key to how much rain we actually get this week.

Some of the stronger high pressure models like the OP Euro keep most of the rain offshore this week. Other models like the AIFS and CMC have more rain especially near the coast with weaker high pressure to the north.

But like we saw with the blizzard in February, the AI and other models beat the Euro which was too suppressed with the coastal low. So this will be a good test of how the AI models handle warm season wavelengths with East Coast lows.
 

 

 

 

[nycwinter]

dt wxrisk is convinced a major northeaster is happening next week..

[nycwinter]

i had to close my window feeling very chilly inside..

[NEG NAO]

Why does my forecast from the NWS say Mostly Sunny when its Mostly Cloudy ? Seems like I have to ask this same question over and over again since they are experts at screwing up sky conditions

[FPizz]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Why does my forecast from the NWS say Mostly Sunny when its Mostly Cloudy ? Seems like I have to ask this same question over and over again since they are experts at screwing up sky conditions

Because their models told them sunny but they dont look up

[SACRUS]

After having been not populating a month straight of intra hour readings max/mins JFK had a day and a half of data and its back missing the last 18 hours

https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KJFK.html

[SACRUS]

67 / 48 those mostly or partly sunny forecasts currently being blocked by mostly cloudy skies.  It should get to a partly cloudy day with low 70s for most.  Tomorrow starts the 4-5 day period of clouds and potentially persistent onshore /easterly fetch with it comes the probability of rain / drizzle, and a cut off low bringing heavier rain. A below normal nasty period through the week b.  Ridging north into Canada has weakness and cut off below and onshore overall through the 24, still unsettled but less ceertain into the 26th.  Beyond there overall near normal to close the month.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1983)
NYC: 94 (1983)
LGA: 92 (1983)
JFK: 90 (1983)


Lows:

EWR: 44 (1959)
NYC: 44 (1929)
LGA: 49 (1959)
JFK: 47 (1959)

Historical:

1846: The Great Gale of 1846, likely the remnants of a hurricane, hit Newfoundland, Canada with strong winds and high surf. 46 men and 11 boats were lost. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1875: Boston, Massachusetts has the coolest high temperature of 49 °F for the month of September. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1895: Today it was 96° in Washington DC the first of five straight record high temperatures for September dates. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1936: The 1936 hurricane did damage in Provincetown, MA on the 19th as it dropped 7.79 inches of rain in Provincetown, MA. 1936 Hurricane Track - Weather Underground

1947 - The eye of a hurricane passed directly over New Orleans, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.61 inches. The hurricane killed fifty-one persons, and caused 110 million dollars damage. It produced wind gusts to 155 mph while making landfall over Fort Lauderdale FL two days earlier. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1955: Hurricane Ione made landfall near Morehead City, NC with winds over 100 mph. 16.63 inches of rain fell at Maysville, NC. 40 blocks of New Bern, NC were underwater at one point. Seven people lost their lives and total damage was $88 million. This was the 3rd hurricane to cross eastern North Carolina in 5 weeks. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1962: Torrential rain and significant amounts of hail fell from storms over northwest Oklahoma. A few locations in Ellis, Woodward, and Roger Mills Counties had hail drifts waist-deep. The next morning, some drifts were still two feet high. The storms brought up to 8 inches of rain across parts of northwest Oklahoma. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967 - Hurricane Beulah deluged Brownsville, TX, with 12.19 inches of rain in 24 hours, to establish a record for that location. Hurricane Beulah made landfall on the 20th near the mouth of the Rio Grande River, where a wind gust to 135 mph was reported by a ship in the port. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel)

1967:  Sparta, WI recorded their coldest September temperature with 19°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1980: Golfball to baseball sized hail hit St. Paul, MN. One company had 75 to 95 percent of the glass in their greenhouses smashed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1982: On this date through the 30th, Hurricane Paul first hit El Salvador and Guatemala as a tropical storm whose heavy rains kill more than 1,000 people. It then moved back over the Pacific, where it strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph. The storm killed 8 people near Los Mochis, Mexico. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983: While the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast basked in late summer record heat, wintry weather occurred in the Rockies behind a strong cold front. Record highs in the east included: Reading, PA: 95°, New York (Central Park), NY: 94°, Wilmington, DE: 94°, Baltimore, MD: 94°-Tied, Hartford, CT: 93 °F. (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)


1983: 14 inches of snow fell just south of Great Falls, MT on this date through the 20th. 21 inches of snow fell at Nye, MT beginning the previous day through this date. Other snowfall totals: Mystic Lake, MT: 24 inches, Red Lodge, MT: 14 inches, Columbus, MT: 11 inches, Pryor, MT: 10 inches, Livingston, MT. The temperature fell to -6° at West Yellowstone, MT following the snow. The passage of a strong cold front was responsible for the wintry weather. The temperature at Denver, CO dropped from a sunny 86° to a snowy 35° in just 7 hours with the frontal passage. Kalispell and Billings, MT set record lows with 23° and 26° respectively. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Cool autumn-like weather invaded the Central Rockies. Temperatures dipped into the 30s and 40s, with readings in the teens and 20s reported in the higher elevations. Gunnison CO was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 15 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a fast moving cold front produced severe weather in Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Eight tornadoes were reported, including five in Indiana. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 74 mph at Wabash IND. Winds associated with the cold front itself gusted to 69 mph at Kenosha WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast Region. Cape Hatteras NC was deluged with nearly 3.50 inches of rain in three hours. Syracuse NY reported 1.77 inches of rain, a record for the date, and Chatham NJ reported an all-time record of 3.45 inches in one day. Hurricane Hugo headed for the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Iris, following close on its heels, strengthened to near hurricane force. (The National Weather Summary)

1991: An early season outbreak of Arctic air caused considerable crop damage in Iowa as temperatures fell below freezing. Temperatures fell to the mid 20s to lower 30s in most locations. Northern Iowa was the hardest hit where temperatures remained at 30 degrees or below for 8 hours. Record lows included: Valentine, NE: 17°, Timber Lake, SD: 21°, Rapid City, SD: 22°, Huron, SD: 23°, Havre, MT: 24°, Mobridge, SD: 24°, Pierre, SD: 24°, Norfolk, NE: 26°, North Platte, NE: 26°-Tied, Sioux Falls, SD: 27°, Grand Island, NE: 27°, St. Cloud, MN: 28°, Sioux City, IA: 28°, Lincoln, NE: 29°, Rochester, MN: 30°-Tied, Minneapolis, MN: 31°, Omaha, NE: 31°, Waterloo, IA: 32 °F  (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1994: Honolulu, HI recorded its all-time high temperature of 95°. Kahului, HI tied their September record high with 96°. Lihue, HI tied their daily record high with 87°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[Stormlover74]

Models still struggling with the timing of rain tomorrow and Monday 

[MANDA]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s part of the same pattern which produced the record 600 dm pattern this week. The strength of that ridge may be key to how much rain we actually get this week.

Some of the stronger high pressure models like the OP Euro keep most of the rain offshore this week. Other models like the AIFS and CMC have more rain especially near the coast with weaker high pressure to the north.

But like we saw with the blizzard in February, the AI and other models beat the Euro which was too suppressed with the coastal low. So this will be a good test of how the AI models handle warm season wavelengths with East Coast lows.
 

 

 

 

I think at a minimum minor to moderate coastal flooding will be an issue before the coming week is over.  Days of easterly fetch and coming full moon combined with developing offshore storm / upper level cut off likely to cause issues.

[SACRUS]

NE Flow starting to push cloud maritime low level clouds west while the higher clouds push east

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models still struggling with the timing of rain tomorrow and Monday 

Monday and Wednesday look dry to me. GFS has some rain for Tuesday, but is mainly dry for all the other days during the week. I'm still not convinced that we're gonna see much rain next week -- it could be a cloudy cool week with only a little rain. But we'll see. It's very questionable. 

[winterwx21]

And Euro continues to be mainly dry for the week. 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And Euro continues to be mainly dry for the week. 

Euro AI shifted east also 

Hopefully we get a trend back west

 Would be nice to get some cool and damp weather.