September 2026

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will return  for the weekend. Saturday will be a dry day with partly sunny skies. Clouds will increase on Sunday. Highw will be in the upper 60s to around 70°.

A rainy period will likely develop late Sunday. Periods of rain could continue into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout next week. 
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -34.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.661 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[dWave]

46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Cooler air will return  for the weekend. Saturday will be a dry day with partly sunny skies. Clouds will increase on Sunday. Highw will be in the upper 60s to around 70°.

A rainy period will likely develop late Sunday. Periods of rain could continue into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout next week. 
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -34.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.661 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Is the steadier/heavier rain trending later in the day? Ive seen some forecast hinting at that but others not so much. Im trying to figure how doable some outdoor events will be Sun mid morning to early afternoon

[Diana W]

46 minutes ago, dWave said:

Is the steadier/heavier rain trending later in the day? Ive seen some forecast hinting at that but others not so much. Im trying to figure how doable some outdoor events will be Sun mid morning to early afternoon

I hope the rain holds off until the evening.  I'm having a house warming party Sunday afternoon and there's 20 people coming.  I'm hoping to be able to use the deck for an indoor/ outdoor party.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Is the steadier/heavier rain trending later in the day? Ive seen some forecast hinting at that but others not so much. Im trying to figure how doable some outdoor events will be Sun mid morning to early afternoon

It's early in terms of timing, but Sunday afternoon/evening appear to have the highest chance of heavier rain.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, TriPol said:

October 2019 hit 93 degrees.

Really unusual fall into spring pattern that year. All-time October warmth followed by not much winter to speak of. Then the record late T of snow in May. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct top 5 warmest maximum temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2019	96	0
2	1941	93	0
3	1949	92	0
4	1959	91	0
5	1939	90	0
-	1938	90	0
-	1908	90	0

 

Monthly Data for October 2019 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	96
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	95
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	94
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	94
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	93
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	91
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	91
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	91
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	91
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	90