Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

In terms of the statement, "looking at normal temp 15 days out is more accurate" around 15 days out or so climatology is going to have more "skill" versus a forecast model. Something I learned recently but the reason why say the GFS goes out to 15 days is because that is around the period when climatology holds better skill than forecast models. 

It's really interesting to see the strides made by AI guidance in recent years. We'll see if that continues into this winter. As I remember it, AI ensembles were great least year when legacy guidance was too quick to kick our coastal events out to sea. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It's really interesting to see the strides made by AI guidance in recent years. We'll see if that continues into this winter. As I remember it, AI ensembles were great least year when legacy guidance was too quick to kick our coastal events out to sea. 

For sure. While I've been a huge negative on the AI side of things, I do think they are going to provide value but so long as they are used properly. Unfortunately though, we're also going backwards with a lot of the changes done within the field. The lack of weather balloon launches I think too has been extremely detrimental to forecasting, particularly short-term. Once we, if we, get to the point of quantum computing we will see substantial strides forward with modelling and forecasting. 

[uncletim]

5 hours ago, Snowedin said:

I live in a very swampy area myself so once dusk hits, I know 9 times out of 10 there will be skeeters just randomly buzzing around and a few minutes later, packs of voracious bats pursuing them. At least they’re slowing down a bit now but I’ve had a few bad bites on my shoulders and leg in just the last week alone.

Skeeters are bad here in MD, but I find that using a Thermacell device keeps them away within a certain perimeter.  In Maine we use mosquito coils (same concept, but a bit more heavy duty) because the air is usually moving a bit. We couldn't sit outside before we found them.

[ineedsnow]

Pouring in Gardner

[Chrisrotary12]

Stein. Stein. Everywhere a stein. 

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Pouring in Gardner

Shelter in place 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, uncletim said:

Skeeters are bad here in MD, but I find that using a Thermacell device keeps them away within a certain perimeter.  In Maine we use mosquito coils (same concept, but a bit more heavy duty) because the air is usually moving a bit. We couldn't sit outside before we found them.

Bumper crop of them here with all the rain, bats must be having a field day at night time 

[OrangeCTWX]

Went from beautiful to shit right around 2pm. Hope we don’t have to deal with any of this tomorrow too. 

[weatherwiz]

27 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Went from beautiful to shit right around 2pm. Hope we don’t have to deal with any of this tomorrow too. 

It will happen well before 2:00 tomorrow 

[Damage In Tolland]

Thankfully a nice Steiner here today . Pretty decent day other than a sprinkle . This looks to be  about 3-4 weeks of very little rain for the region . By early Octorcher things should be quite dry 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thankfully a nice Steiner here today . Pretty decent day other than a sprinkle . This looks to be  about 3-4 weeks of very little rain for the region . By early Octorcher things should be quite dry 

lots of fires incoming once leaves fall

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

lots of fires incoming once leaves fall

We need something . Anything but this incessant boredom 

[codfishsnowman]

Love these temps. Heck of a way to run a torch..

 

 

[78Blizzard]

3 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

Love these temps. Heck of a way to run a torch..

 

 

Yeah, and the warmista GFS just can't give up forecasting more 90's in our future.  I'll sell that.

[vortex95]

18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man… Vort95 gone wild overnight .. scolding after scolding of Scoots 

Working overnights...I need something to keep me awake! 

[vortex95]

18 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean in SNE. Better chance down by DC where it doesn’t take much. 

DCA averages 14" per winter.  GYDLH!  If you thought the 4 years leading up to Jan 2026 were hell?  You have no idea. 

Didn't bother me at all.   I long ago "got my fill."  After the 1992-93 to 1996-97 period?  I recall saying after the Bliz of 97, "I will *never* complain about a crappy snow winter ever again!"  That how impressed I was w/ that blizzard as it hit all the high notes for an absolute classic (meteorologically and otherwise),.

@CoastalWx I would have thought at least he'd take some cues from that, given how he proudly likes to show off that selfie of himself standing proud in Hyde Park that next day!  And then i recall he could not stopping talking about PD2 and the Bliz of 05 (I was shown the BOX radar loop from that more times than I needed to at work!).

But really, what should have sealed the deal for him and "excised all demons?"   The megablitz Jan-Feb 2015.  Hands down.  A truly exceptional event/period, and he lived and and loved it, as many others did.

Not that you can't still enjoy a big snowstorm and weenie out, but take them as they come, and avoid getting upset when things are inactive.  @CoastalWx is old enough to recall how lousy the 80s and early 90s were for snow in SNE.  He even had to wait longer than I did b/c he got STIFFED royally in Brockton in the Dec 11-12, 1992 blockbuster while I relished in 18" in Woburn! 

[vortex95]

18 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Just pillaging my reputation. Hate to see it.

 

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, tamarack said:

Southwest Harbor (Penobscot Bay) recorded a gust of 115 mph in that storm.  The 957 mb reading at CAR that day is a contender for lowest pressure in New England from a non-tropical storm.  At Fort Kent we had 1.5" of rain plus 0.5" flurries with wind gusting to 50 and temp 46/-11.  At 1 PM it was 44, 4 PM 14, 6 PM -6.  By the next day the ice holes on most roads were awesome.

The deepening rate of the storm was incredible.  BOS recorded min pressure of 965 mb.

I think 955 mb is the record non-TC pressure for New England, set at BID 3/7/1932.

Bliz of 93 peaked at 960 mb over Mid-Atlantic and filled a bit to 963 once over SNE.

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My God, the GFS.  

 

 

Not good, but I do find GFS MOS is ok, better than the NAM MOS of the time.  NAM does do better in CAD situations though.  But the RRFS is coming, much to @CoastalWx's dismay!  LOL.

Which reminds me, does MOS exist in any form for the HRRR/ECMWF and other models?
 

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

For sure. While I've been a huge negative on the AI side of things, I do think they are going to provide value but so long as they are used properly. Unfortunately though, we're also going backwards with a lot of the changes done within the field. The lack of weather balloon launches I think too has been extremely detrimental to forecasting, particularly short-term. Once we, if we, get to the point of quantum computing we will see substantial strides forward with modelling and forecasting. 

For the next generation GOES satellites (2032), the plan is to have hyperspectral sounding capabilities onboard.  This is far better than the current GOES sounder sensor, and I think will revolutionize mesoscale forecasting, and may make RAOBs obsolete.

In a 512x512 km area, it is said it can take over 16,000 soundings every 11 sec!

 

[vortex95]

@CoastalWx rejoicing?
 

 

[ineedsnow]

40 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

@CoastalWx rejoicing?
 

 

That looks beautiful!

[HoarfrostHubb]

So much for a COC weekend