stormy Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago The 06z Euro gave Augusta County 1.05" by Sat. at 12z. At 12z it came to its senses with .10". The Euro has degraded to Graf league. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 4 minutes ago, stormy said: The 06z Euro gave Augusta County 1.05" by Sat. at 12z. At 12z it came to its senses with .10". The Euro has degraded to Graf league. I don't have the 12z Euro on weather.cod.edu. Are you getting it from a paid site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I don't have the 12z Euro on weather.cod.edu. Are you getting it from a paid site? I'm getting it from WeatherBell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Cool 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 55 minutes ago, stormy said: The 06z Euro gave Augusta County 1.05" by Sat. at 12z. At 12z it came to its senses with .10". The Euro has degraded to Graf league. how can an elite model do this less than 12 hours from the storm. The HRRR does not seem impressed either west of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I don't have the 12z Euro on weather.cod.edu. Are you getting it from a paid site? pay up bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, Ji said: how can an elite model do this less than 12 hours from the storm. The HRRR does not seem impressed either west of DC DC = Decreased Confidence Just now, Ji said: pay up bro In this economy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has a brutal cutoff. 1” for Annapolis and DCA. 0.01” for Ellicott city and Westminster. nothing like an elite model doing stuff that models at 384 hours are suppose to do 12 hours before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago the HRRR is a shutout for me until way past sunset lol when i get clobbered by showers and storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the HRRR is a shutout for me until way past sunset lol when i get clobbered by showers and storms Why are you here? Shocking. This isn't your thing. No digital blue showing up in the long range yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Why are you here? Shocking. This isn't your thing. No digital blue showing up in the long range yet? i guess i became a softball dad along the way. So rain events on weekends are kinda important now lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Ji said: how can an elite model do this less than 12 hours from the storm. The HRRR does not seem impressed either west of DC Without getting technical with a bunch of Nonsense. I'm still in serious Drought. 50 years ago, before anyone heard of Models, my grandfather said, "all signs fail in dry weather" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 18 minutes ago, stormy said: Without getting technical with a bunch of Nonsense. I'm still in serious Drought. 50 years ago, before anyone heard of Models, my grandfather said, "all signs fail in dry weather" Was that his way of saying 'drought begets drought'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Was that his way of saying 'drought begets drought'? You are exactly right! West of the BR we have fallen into a God-awful pattern whereby feedback from previously existing conditions, foils the best and brightest of the models. The only hope we have is a +2.9 - 3.0 Nino breaking this pattern between Oct 1 and Dec. 31. Earlier today the Euro said, this will happen. The problem is that the Euro is not smart enough to fathom the feedback atmospherics of a serious Drought. Sorry Ji, "elite" is not perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 57 minutes ago, stormy said: You are exactly right! West of the BR we have fallen into a God-awful pattern whereby feedback from previously existing conditions, foils the best and brightest of the models. The only hope we have is a +2.9 - 3.0 Nino breaking this pattern between Oct 1 and Dec. 31. Earlier today the Euro said, this will happen. The problem is that the Euro is not smart enough to fathom the feedback atmospherics of a serious Drought. Sorry Ji, "elite" is not perfect. Well it is true that droughts can tend to be self sustaining(positive feedback loop) due to multiple factors. As for the models, I would think the physics are capable of resolving that to some degree. In places where general/long term dryness is a feature due to topography(downsloping for example) the models certainly can 'see' that- often depicting a precip min in those locales. Just ask @EastCoast NPZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: Well it is true that droughts can tend to be self sustaining(positive feedback loop) due to multiple factors. As for the models, I would think the physics are capable of resolving that to some degree. In places where general/long term dryness is a feature due to topography(downsloping for example) the models certainly can 'see' that- often depicting a precip min in those locales. Just ask @EastCoast NPZ Down-sloping has been a problem this summer as, all to often, 18z flow has been 290 too 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Well...I guess i can mow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 5 hours ago, Ji said: the HRRR is a shutout for me until way past sunset lol when i get clobbered by showers and storms We are definitely getting way more precip down here in southern MD but do we mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Poor Nam 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 4 hours ago, stormy said: Down-sloping has been a problem this summer as, all to often, 18z flow has been 290 too 360. Make that 18,000 ft. flow 290 - 360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Don't look now DMV but more rain coming up on you this time from the SSE. I think the Mid Atlantic is already getting El Nino'ed some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 5 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: We are definitely getting way more precip down here in southern MD but do we mix? Might change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago lol brutal. From winter storm watch for 4-8 inches to scattered flurries and street riots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago 34 minutes ago, Ji said: lol brutal. From winter storm watch for 4-8 inches to scattered flurries and street riots Very La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago Sitting on the screened porch to enjoy the light rain. This looks like not much unless radar fills in later. 0.10 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 7 minutes ago Share Posted 7 minutes ago 9 hours ago, Ji said: Poor Nam 3k Going out with a whimper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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