Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

Let's get a Labor Day '98 redux but even more widespread

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

Is this the GFS AI ...or  ?

[dendrite]

More 6z maps

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is this the GFS AI ...or  ?

That’s the EPS AI Ens

[dendrite]

It’s definitely trending warmer though 

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah everything is furnacing the first 10 days or so of Septorcher . Euro has temps near a Hundy for a day or two . Classic super Nino weather for fall with heat ridge in the East and endless summer .

[weatherwiz]

One thing to watch moving through the first week of September is the increasing likelihood for ridging to be centered more towards or just off the Southeast coast. For much of the last several weeks (At least) we've seen the ridging centered more Texas/New Mexico. This will open the room for widespread 80's and 90's in the typical hot spots and we probably become active with convective potential too given a westerly flow developing aloft.

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah hopefully a few early Sept. severe events to track, maybe a 'recho or two. to inevitably miss this area

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's get a Labor Day '98 redux but even more widespread

i've given up on ever getting those again

[Cyclone-68]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's get a Labor Day '98 redux but even more widespread

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_State_Labor_Day_derechos
 

I’d have a stroke if we missed TWO derechos in the same day 

[kdxken]

Are we going to get less snow from Canada this year because of the tariffs?

[weatherwiz]

30 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i've given up on ever getting those again

yup, the 90's seem to be a thing of the past

[weatherwiz]

In addition to some locally strong-to-severe weather potential both Thursday and Friday, there should be some risk for flash flooding as well 

[Layman]

51 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yup, the 90's seem to be a thing of the past

This totally sounds like a Yogi Berra quote 

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

yup, the 90's seem to be a thing of the past

this area had a derecho in july 97 and it was one of my spark events

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this area had a derecho in july 97 and it was one of my spark events

I'll never forget turning on TWC on 7/15/95 and like 6 AM and them talking about the line moving across the region. Fun times

[Brewbeer]

is a "furnace" hotter than a "torch" ?  does the progression go like this:

   -0 to +0 average

   +1 to +2 warm

   +3 to +4 hot

   +5 to +6 torch

   +7 to +8 furnace 

 

or is it more like this:

   -0 to +0 average

   +1 to +2 torch

   +3 to +4 furnace

   +5 to +6 warm

   +7 to +8 hot

I see from the reactions that others are also "confused"

 

[Brian5671]

75 party cloudy here-perfect day out there.  Sunset at 7:37 starting to really notice the early sunsets

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Brewbeer said:

is a "furnace" hotter than a "torch" ?  does the progression go like this:

   -0 to +0 average

   +1 to +2 warm

   +3 to +4 hot

   +5 to +6 torch

   +7 to +8 furnace 

 

or is it more like this:

   -0 to +0 average

   +1 to +2 torch

   +3 to +4 furnace

   +5 to +6 warm

   +7 to +8 hot

I see from the reactions that others are also "confused"

 

It’s whatever you want it to be

[WxWatcher007]

52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s whatever you want it to be

+1=Torch?

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, Brewbeer said:

is a "furnace" hotter than a "torch" ?  does the progression go like this:

   -0 to +0 average

   +1 to +2 warm

   +3 to +4 hot

   +5 to +6 torch

   +7 to +8 furnace 

 

or is it more like this:

   -0 to +0 average

   +1 to +2 torch

   +3 to +4 furnace

   +5 to +6 warm

   +7 to +8 hot

I see from the reactions that others are also "confused"

 

0.1 to 1,000 AN is a torch

[dendrite]

+4 for a day isn’t really a big deal. But +4 for a month is pretty torchy. But really it comes down to standard deviations and the +1.5 or +2 SD numbers aren’t exactly at our fingertips. 

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

+4 for a day isn’t really a big deal. But +4 for a month is pretty torchy. But really it comes down to standard deviations and the +1.5 or +2 SD numbers aren’t exactly at our fingertips. 

Get to it.

[Ginx snewx]

Up down the month marches on to the inevitable. 

 

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Get to it.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

It’s definitely trending warmer though 

12z operationals appeared to make a coherently warm move en masse on that run, too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Brewbeer said:

is a "furnace" hotter than a "torch" ?  does the progression go like this:

   -0 to +0 average

   +1 to +2 warm

   +3 to +4 hot

   +5 to +6 torch

   +7 to +8 furnace 

 

or is it more like this:

   -0 to +0 average

   +1 to +2 torch

   +3 to +4 furnace

   +5 to +6 warm

   +7 to +8 hot

I see from the reactions that others are also "confused"

 

You forgot the  "+9 to +10 will mean we go the other way big time" bargaining

[weatherwiz]

With how the NPAC is evolving combined with the signals for ridging to focus more across the Southeast or off the coast, we could be setting up for a well above average at least first half of Fall. This doesn't mean we'll get some cool periods, probably even some pretty cool nights, but the overall theme is going to be quite above. 

[WxWatcher007]

45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

With how the NPAC is evolving combined with the signals for ridging to focus more across the Southeast or off the coast, we could be setting up for a well above average at least first half of Fall. This doesn't mean we'll get some cool periods, probably even some pretty cool nights, but the overall theme is going to be quite above. 

Yeah so much for my thought of a cooler start to September yesterday  

[forkyfork]

46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

With how the NPAC is evolving combined with the signals for ridging to focus more across the Southeast or off the coast, we could be setting up for a well above average at least first half of Fall. This doesn't mean we'll get some cool periods, probably even some pretty cool nights, but the overall theme is going to be quite above. 

i want to hear cicadas on thanksgiving