Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Only +1F instead of +10F?

By 2030 Ineedsnow will be ACATT'ing 88/68 

[kdxken]

49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Only +1F instead of +10F?

Don't blame me for climate change. Speak with Mr Wolf.

[kdxken]

Every f****** day. Not sure what you can do about it. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Only +1F instead of +10F?

Yeah that’s not cool or a cool pattern . It’s AN everyday there 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/2089269500067618911?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[kdxken]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that’s not cool or a cool pattern . It’s AN everyday there 

Where did you get that from? The latest run of the North Korean.

[dendrite]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/2089269500067618911?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

What in the sam hell is that filter he’s using? (The one from 8/15)

[Ginx snewx]

32 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Where did you get that from? The latest run of the North Korean.

He dreams

[dendrite]

I think it could break positive if the mean trough is more over the lakes. It’s not overly torchy or anything though.

[ineedsnow]

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think it could break positive if the mean trough is more over the lakes. It’s not overly torchy or anything though.

Lets get that trough to the west and a high to the northeast of us and bring up that GFS cane! I'll take warmer weather and  higher dews to pull something like that off 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Lets get that trough to the west and a high to the northeast of us and bring up that GFS cane! I'll take warmer weather and  higher dews to pull something like that off 

Great post

[Brewbeer]

On 8/4/2026 at 1:02 PM, Brewbeer said:

Lean-to at Big Dear next week Monday-Thursday.  I was hoping to get an on-water lean-too at Ricker Pond but waited too long to make the reservation.

 

On 8/12/2026 at 5:53 PM, Brewbeer said:

Wow, what a find.  Absolutely the quietest place I’ve ever been.  Dead silent at night.  I recommend.

There was no cellular data at the campsite unless it was between midnight and 6:00 am so I didn't get to post during, but did want to post a couple of photos I got from the trip:

Hiking up Washington (with my "adult" children) from Lakes of the Clouds:

Fox lean-to in Big Deer State Park.  Vermont has the best lean-tos, hands down.  Glad we had it too, it rained 2 of the 3 nights we were camping, and one of them was a full on thunderstorm with at least an inch of heavy rain:

 

 

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, dendrite said:

So wait. The RRFS is known to have “bugs” with the FV3 core and it can’t be fixed until 2028, but we’re retiring the NAM soon anyway? 

Sounds about right lol. I honestly don’t know the exact details. Maybe @vortex95 does 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Brewbeer said:

 

There was no cellular data at the campsite unless it was between midnight and 6:00 am so I didn't get to post during, but did want to post a couple of photos I got from the trip:

Hiking up Washington (with my "adult" children) from Lakes of the Clouds:

Fox lean-to in Big Deer State Park.  Vermont has the best lean-tos, hands down.  Glad we had it too, it rained 2 of the 3 nights we were camping, and one of them was a full on thunderstorm with at least an inch of heavy rain:

 

 

Oh the number of times I was stuck in those leantos during rainy camping trips growing up.  Big Deer and Stillwater have both been flooded by our family camping trips.

One time when I was in my early 20's, we were at Big Deer and expected a rainy Saturday.  I woke up Saturday morning, looked out and saw beautiful blue skies.  I was psyched!  Then I realized it was merely the large blue tarp we had strung up from leanto over the picnic table.  The rain soon started and didn't end until we started packing up Sunday morning.  

[dendrite]

8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You didn't ask me but I suspect the US Drought Monitoring product should be taken with a grain of salt due to the subjective inclusion of personal scientist(s) opinions.  The product is a smoothed sort of mean between machine/climate/man

Heh, a an afterthought, what the last 20 .. 30 years of overly exposed information has been revealing about humanity is that how we used to think of as stone by the time information became ubiquitously known, is and always was suspect.  We can't trust PHDs of science... Judges of the Court ... CEOs?  forfuckumgetit!  Some are well intended, but even they are human - the rest are giant piles of agenda-guided rectal plaque. It's all made interminably more frustrating because well crafted social media content is also so often completely wrong baseless crap that 90% of civility doesn't possess enough analytic capability to adjudicate ... It's kind of ironic that this being the age of information is really evolved or mutated into the "age of disinformation"

The problem with these last decades is that (and probably is a good thing because it never should have been ) it teaches us to distrust both specific people, forces us to ponder how far does that extend to the over-arcing apparatuses of the "institution" too -

Now, with "Epsteinian" collusive forces that are (c'mon man, don't be naive) clearly integrating a reality that we are in fact guided sheep, corruption in all forms and colors - opinions are part of that - is now only a incompletely certain to morons. So yeah... we can trust the US DM "a little" more than RFK's MAHA health reforms. 

Anyway, the drought guide is in part machine, and then modulated by opinions of officers in the subject.  This latter aspect in kinder terms leaves it open to debate.   But regionally?  the farmers know

 

The weekly crop moisture index seems to pass the eye test for 0-3m depth soil moisture. The drought monitor doesn’t seem applicable for someone like me growing plants and fruit trees  

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Sounds about right lol. I honestly don’t know the exact details. Maybe @vortex95 does 

But it still better than the NAM!  Geez, the 3km NAM same res as the RRFS and look at what the 3 km NAM does.  Talk about overdoing convection and QPF in general.  That's the "garbage model."  I avoid it!

RRFS can actually show mesocyclones and local low pressure from intense supercells.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Brewbeer said:

 

There was no cellular data at the campsite unless it was between midnight and 6:00 am so I didn't get to post during, but did want to post a couple of photos I got from the trip:

Hiking up Washington (with my "adult" children) from Lakes of the Clouds:

Fox lean-to in Big Deer State Park.  Vermont has the best lean-tos, hands down.  Glad we had it too, it rained 2 of the 3 nights we were camping, and one of them was a full on thunderstorm with at least an inch of heavy rain:

 

 

I love the vintage Accord. A survivor.

[dendrite]

I actually thought the 3k did a good job most of the time…especially if the synoptics were being handled relatively well by most models. I had little to no use for the 12k.

But at least we had a lot of experience with the nam and when to use it as guidance. I’m not a fan of trying to learn a new model with a (pun intended) rotten core.

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

But it still better than the NAM!  Geez, the 3km NAM same res as the RRFS and look at what the 3 km NAM does.  Talk about overdoing convection and QPF in general.  That's the "garbage model."  I avoid it!

RRFS can actually show mesocyclones and local low pressure from intense supercells.

I feel like I know how to analyze the NAM (both 3km and 12km). The RRFS just seems unstable run to run. Version 2.0 is better and it’s on platforms like Weatherfront for example. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I actually thought the 3k did a good job most of the time…especially if the synoptics were being handled relatively well by most models. I had little to no use for the 12k.

But at least we had a lot of experience with the nam and when to use it as guidance. I’m not a fan of trying to learn a new model with a (pun intended) rotten core.

Bingo

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Great post

slowly getting there 

 

[kdxken]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

slowly getting there 

 

Who knows?? As a wise wolf once said "nobody knows"