Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[Snowedin]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Bread and cakes? Lays chips lol and yes it gets delivered.. all I have to do is put the stuff up then order for the coming days.. and its 78 cents a mile for driving so not to bad plus getting paid while driving.. mostly do leominster athol area.. walmart, bjs, hannafords and market baskets.. now you know my daily life 

As a huge pie fan straight from the heart of market basket, thank you for your service. Those blueberry pies have gotten me through many troubled times and chilly winter nights!

[Snowedin]

2 hours ago, JACKASS said:

If you spend any amount of time outside on a regular basis, you know when dews are high vs low.

I don’t need an electronic device to tell me whether it’s bearable outdoors.

It’s only a reference for those that hope for unpleasant conditions.

I was in Florida for the week after the Fourth, THAT was dewy and hot!

Still sat outside all day every day.

I was down in Sarasota for a family wedding in late April and it already felt like mid summer, with a few lizards mixed in! It’s crazy how fast it warms up down there and I’d imagine there’s no gradual step down in intensity like we’re used to here.

[vortex95]

This is the type of drivel we see now (see attachment).  The CFS this far out does more harm than good IMHO b/c too many ppl simply have no idea how to use it and its caveats or they do know, and just seek to monetize w/ hype.

Ever notice winters forecasts from many, always hedging cold/snow, even when we have a solid knowledge and skill a strong El Nino leads to mild temps across the CONUS?

And how these loosers aromatically think just b/c its cold or strong El Nino, that just doesn't mean big snowstorms, but the absolute extremes from history. 

I blot the name of these sites b/c why give thmn exposure.  That's what they want!

And the general idea that b/c this may be the strongest El Nino on record, means you can simply extrapolate up every sensible wx impact from it?  Well, that's not how it works.  The atmosphere does not work in a linear 1-2-3 fashion! 

A great case of this was 2024 when it was supposed to be the end of days for the ATLC hurr season, and you had the global spike in temp from the Hunga-Tonga eruption from the WV in the stratosphere.  Warmer shifts the ITCZ farther N into the Sahara, as was the case several 1000 years ago when the Sahara was green.  We got big rains the in Sahara, but the problem was that the source region for tropical waves was put into a much drier environment, plus, tropical waves came off Africa at a higher latitude where the SSTs are cooler.  This squashed a large part of the "seeds" for TCs in the MDR, and the result was the peak of the season was severely suppressed, and this was not fcst by any, and the hurr season for total numbers were no where near the fcsts.

So the above is an example of non-linear effects w/ higher global temps, as one example.
 

[vortex95]

Came across this site.  Excellent current stats and ranking for global TCs!
https://global-tropical-cyclones.com/

And I got a better list of the top TCs globally by ACE. 

For some reason they counted Paka from 1997 twice.  I think b/c the storm formed in the cntrl Pacific and crossed into the wrn Pacific.  So really #20 on the list should be Lola from the NWPAC in 1957.

This site from CSU is also excellent for S-T-D activity and archives.
https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Bread and cakes? Lays chips lol and yes it gets delivered.. all I have to do is put the stuff up then order for the coming days.. and its 78 cents a mile for driving so not to bad plus getting paid while driving.. mostly do leominster athol area.. walmart, bjs, hannafords and market baskets.. now you know my daily life 

Good weather watching opportunities doing a route like that.