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Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?


weatherwiz
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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So Don…you think East Hartford gets a half inch total? 

I think my area does a really good job at underperforming on every type of weather other than CAD in winter.

I think CT gets a general 1-3” but where it pours it might get ugly fast (most likely western/SW CT).

I’m out on predicting anything interesting imby until something interesting happens.

:(  

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Seems like a general forecast of 1-2" west of 495 would be a good one, with 2-4+" plus in western CT, western/central MA, and southern VT.  If you kind of look at the operational models they are all sniffing out something similar but just varying in terms of the exact locations, which you really don't know until the radar fills in.

qpf_048h_pmm.ne.f04800.png

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2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Screenshot_20260728_161001_X.jpg

I think what's important to note though is a good chunk of that is tied into its prediction of scattered or numerous downpours during the afternoon tomorrow and again on Thursday (that only goes to 15z but speaking to the run as a whole which goes to 18z Thursday). I still highly doubt at the end of the day totals that substantive are that impressive but definitely need to watch the Berks and Greens for that. 

Most from this slug tonight see 1-3" though probably 1.5-2 is the most common...and then its just going to be whoever can catch in on pop up convection the next few days to pad on totals. 

I still don't think the risk for flooding is all that widespread with the greatest flooding risk in typical flood-prone areas.

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