Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

We pop up.

I love those.

[Baroclinic Zone]

13 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

it sure started that way, windows open last night with the fan drawing in cool air all night long making snuggling under summer blankets really enjoyable

no such luck tonight, both ACs still running, 77/69 

My ac just kicked off. I have it set for 70F. It’s currently 71/65. Works for me, less electric use.

[HoarfrostHubb]

39 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

65 is the highest around here congrats 

My thermometer thingy isn’t very good

[Hailstoned]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ACATT twosome tonight making up all kinds of false information etc. . Would be nice for some of our other fellow posters to put them in their place . I’ve fought the fight alone so far . Anyone else tired of their shit that wants to help ?

NO

[CoastalWx]

00z hrrr shows you how to flood western CT

[CoastalWx]

Gonna setup a gravy train further east at the end of jts run. That depiction makes sense overall on HRRR.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gonna setup a gravy train further east at the end of jts run. That depiction makes sense overall on HRRR.

Another convective round to go in eastern areas.

Healthy run.

 

[CoastalWx]

Meanwhile Nam will stein western CT. I’ll toss that. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

NAM 3KM washes away the Catskills.  

[Snowedin]

5 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

 

No idea what you’re going on about. It was certainly COC here today with dews in the 50’s for AEMATT.  I don’t think anybody would argue today was in fact a perfect COC day for July standards. 
 

And the last 2 weeks have been similar. Low dews, cool nights, bright sun and breezy during the day. Couldn’t draw it up any better and the numbers prove it. Complete opposite of HHH

I will say as a proud member of the dew crew that those few days when that wildfire smoke mixed with haze from Canada overtook us, the air had to be the most soupy and stagnant it’s been all season, at least around here. I remember going outside on one of those days to work on the garden and my face was drenched with sweat after just 15 minutes. Maybe we can squeak out one or two more stretches of full body stankness before the seasons through.

[vortex95]

18 hours ago, dendrite said:

I doubt you’d find a resident there that said 102° is not hot. The record for yesterday is 104° in 1931 and 1933. They’re also now +7.0F for the month where the std devs are at their lowest. Looks like that 80.8F mean will place this July at the 4th warmest all time with 8 of the top 9 warmest Julys occurring since 2000.

I won’t pretend to claim I know the history of the MLS ASOS siting though. Maybe pre-ASOS was a “cooler” siting. 

I appreciate you input and response!

My point is that 102 there is not the same as 102 in New England b/c the mean temps in the summer are significantly higher in this part of the county, so they are more used to 100 deg temps, so not as impactful net-net.  It all relative to the normal climate.  102 in MLS is like 95 in BOS (dry bulb temp).

Also, when they hit 102 on 7/26, dew points were in the mid 30s, so that gave a max heat index of 96, so that's a lot closer to their avg high, and this from a human impact standpoint, is that not better?  But the media ignores this.  Heat index is only mentioned when it is higher than the air temp.  

MLS POR is 1937 to present, at least for continuous records for monthly averages, so that removes a significant part of the very hot 1930s as to reference the hottest Julys, so although it has hot periods in recent decades, it is not likely as impressive as it seems given the POR.

Yes it is still hot, but we need to adjust for climate of the location and the dew points present.  It needs to be scaled.  Again, going back to the E Coast media bias, they do not take this into account when reporting.  They think 90 is "hot" everywhere.   I've seen before, "oh it was so hot in DFW today w/ high of 95!", and their normal high in July is 97.  See the problem here?  The have no context or perspective.  Facts are meaningless w/o context.  To them it is all just one "furnace" that will end things.

[vortex95]

22 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

3k Nam goes ham in western CT but end of its range doesn’t quite show what happens for everyone else. 
 

Think one jack is probably SWCT and maybe secondary ern/SE MA. 
 

It doesn’t end there, aftn stuff Thursday and maybe even Friday. So many get a good drink. 

Scott's favorite model does this (00z RRFS)!!!  Aug 1955 Diane totals!

But the 06z HRRR has almost 7" for Weymouth!
 

[CoastalWx]

45 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Scott's favorite model does this (00z RRFS)!!!  Aug 1955 Diane totals!

But the 06z HRRR has almost 7" for Weymouth!
 

Garbage model. 
 

Although I still like SW CT Jack and a secondary one out east.  Models did seem to back off a bit in wrn CT but it could easily come back so no need to knee jerk. 

[Lava Rock]

Frcst less than 1". Shocking

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[BrianW]

[kdxken]

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Another convective round to go in eastern areas.

Healthy run.

 

Similar totals and placement as the early July Rainer?

[kdxken]

Atmosphere certainly feels loaded.

[vortex95]

22 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't know if I see much flooding potential outside of any typical flood-prone areas that flood if it precipitates for more than 5 minutes. A lot of this is drawn out over multiple days and ends up being more convective in nature. There will be a good slug of rain early on in the setup with the warm front or even triple point but this looks to occlude rather quickly. Any flooding risk probably confined to (if) any areas that are hit with several rounds of convection. 

Yes once again, duration. 6" in 48 hr is *not* the same as 6" in 6 hr!  And w/ areas still w/ deficits, it mitigates things.  Wrn and srn CT do has more of flood risk this time tho.

[vortex95]

21 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d probably side with some high res models but perhaps not fully. Maybe a Nam/euro compromise. 
 

This feels like one of those things that we have a 50 mile wide plume of heavy rain with embedded little meso lows in it that will enhance rainfall. That’s especially true I think for Western areas. Further east, we might see another one sort of develop and try to pinwheel to the coast again and some typical enhancement on East Northeast flow. But these setups are always varying from run to run. I do think even up to Dendrite gets a good drink.

What about the 6.5" for Weymouth the HRRR has?  Is that a garbage model as well?

[w1pf]

Somebody's all-in.. 

[vortex95]

20 hours ago, kdxken said:

I just had to

"Ever -  in our life"  Whose life?  That is highly variable dependent on the person!  Meaningless w/ context or standardization.

Slicing and dicing down stats per day for any location you can find that has a record is bottomless pit.  Always tons of stats like this, and when you consider how many wx parameters we have records for, and all the locations?   Most of it is minutia or meaningless as to sensible wx impact, and yet the "race to the bottom" for content has resulted in this drivel.

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Same here. Dews have risen as the temps dropped. During peak temps today, dews were in the mid 50s. Currently 72/65 which feels great.

Dewy this AM. 68F currently. A full 16F higher than 24hr ago.

[vortex95]

20 hours ago, dendrite said:

Mins on this day in 2001. Yes that’s a 45° at BED.

Someone get grandpa off the internet.

34 F for a low at Barre Falls MA 7/1/1988.  Same time MWN had 4" of snow for it most snow so late.

[vortex95]

17 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Looks to be getting even stronger now

HP intense tornado in the morning.

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I followed the major tornado that hit the area along Lake Winnebago in Wisconsin.  It moved north to south.  I just watched a really interesting video that was taken along the lake.   It looks like as the winds shifted from the east the lake rose several fee.  Watch the lake water level.  Was it just the wind?  Was it the rapid pressure rise?  I have never seen something like this.  Attached is the general area and direction. Thoughts?

 

Meteotsunami or seiche. Speed of storms is often key, but local bay/inlets can have odd things happen even w/o fast moving storms.

[vortex95]

23 minutes ago, w1pf said:

Somebody's all-in.. 

Let's take one model and run w/ that.  To show point totals when there is a lot of model disagreement as to how much and where is foolish.  One should be drawing their own map manually and show something like 1-3" general and highlight heavier areas possible and say up to 5-6".  That is most reasonable at this time.

Like they learned nothing from the last event?

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

I appreciate you input and response!

My point is that 102 there is not the same as 102 in New England b/c the mean temps in the summer are significantly higher in this part of the county, so they are more used to 100 deg temps, so not as impactful net-net.  It all relative to the normal climate.  102 in MLS is like 95 in BOS (dry bulb temp).

Also, when they hit 102 on 7/26, dew points were in the mid 30s, so that gave a max heat index of 96, so that's a lot closer to their avg high, and this from a human impact standpoint, is that not better?  But the media ignores this.  Heat index is only mentioned when it is higher than the air temp.  

MLS POR is 1937 to present, at least for continuous records for monthly averages, so that removes a significant part of the very hot 1930s as to reference the hottest Julys, so although it has hot periods in recent decades, it is not likely as impressive as it seems given the POR.

Yes it is still hot, but we need to adjust for climate of the location and the dew points present.  It needs to be scaled.  Again, going back to the E Coast media bias, they do not take this into account when reporting.  They think 90 is "hot" everywhere.   I've seen before, "oh it was so hot in DFW today w/ high of 95!", and their normal high in July is 97.  See the problem here?  The have no context or perspective.  Facts are meaningless w/o context.  To them it is all just one "furnace" that will end things.

Oh I agree. Although if we’re going to lump dewpoint into it you could argue that the normal max “feels like” temp at MLS isn’t much different than places in SNE.

But I was just making a quick quip about some random person making that move to MT to get away from everything and getting surprised at how freakin hot it can be up there.

As for the 90° being hot thing…I can see it both ways. Sure, “it’s sooo hot in Dallas today at 95°” is ridiculous, but sensibly to humans, 90° is just plain hot whether it’s normal for the season or whether it’s a record for the date. We had family friends that lived in S AZ and even though they got used to, and averaged, 100+ she said no one went outside there until after 6pm. Fairbanks could have a +20F January and it’s still dangerously cold for us. I know you know all of this, but my point is just that 90s can be hot for humans and not hot for a location at the same time. But I agree, the media does twist and play with weather events that aren’t climatologically significant while trying to portray them that way. But it’s that way with everything on “social” media now. Gotta keep those likes and clicks coming. 

[CoastalWx]

Still some disagreement, which is no surprise with these cold season synoptics in the warm season. I do think someone’s gonna get dumped on, especially if we have these little embedded meso lows to enhance the rainfall locally.

[Great Snow 1717]

29 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Let's take one model and run w/ that.  To show point totals when there is a lot of model disagreement as to how much and where is foolish.  One should be drawing their own map manually and show something like 1-3" general and highlight heavier areas possible and say up to 5-6".  That is most reasonable at this time.

Like they learned nothing from the last event?

...at least their TV ratings will take a bump up....

[Typhoon Tip]

Does anyone know of any sources that extends the cyclone phase diagram/tech outside of just tropical applications?

I am well aware of this found Bob Hart's found here, https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

I recall seeing this method applied to other cyclone types in the past, but I'm not finding those sites.  

I'm just been sort of frustrated by the models insistent on sub 1000 mb low spin up over NJ, amidst 570+ thickness in all radial directions.   

That latter circumstance is odd.  It is not the typical baroclinic model ( to some degree ) low,  which is physically necessary for extratropical cyclones.   You know? warm sector, cold sector, cool sector.  

So I'm just wondering if we're seeing some kind of a quickly evolving hybrid warm core leaning type low pressure here... It may account for the more robust solutions, if some of the thermodynamic/UVM forcing were sharing space. 

Regarding rainfall... we seem to be peaking PWAT against climo - which is a pretty tall order.  What comes along with that is bigger rain relative indicators - synergy of sorts.  Basically, it is an increased chances that locations will observe bigger results from surprising smaller reasons to do so.   That's what happens in heavier moistened events; suspending a fall column through them, what reaches the ground is closer to source.  etc..  So this system is slow-ish moving.  A training band even in a weaker total low that (say) proves the NAM/Euro are over sensitive at "boundary of existence"  - which I don't see how this thing can be a 995 mb low unless the phase might expose it has shared thermodynamic processes... - could end up being hefty anyway.

EDIT:  okay I did find this... same site actually.  heh.  It does seem there's a bit of warmer lean to this thing's profile.  interesting

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ecmwf/fcst/archive/26072800/231.html