Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

We pop up.

I love those.

[Baroclinic Zone]

13 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

it sure started that way, windows open last night with the fan drawing in cool air all night long making snuggling under summer blankets really enjoyable

no such luck tonight, both ACs still running, 77/69 

My ac just kicked off. I have it set for 70F. It’s currently 71/65. Works for me, less electric use.

[HoarfrostHubb]

39 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

65 is the highest around here congrats 

My thermometer thingy isn’t very good

[Hailstoned]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ACATT twosome tonight making up all kinds of false information etc. . Would be nice for some of our other fellow posters to put them in their place . I’ve fought the fight alone so far . Anyone else tired of their shit that wants to help ?

NO

[CoastalWx]

00z hrrr shows you how to flood western CT

[CoastalWx]

Gonna setup a gravy train further east at the end of jts run. That depiction makes sense overall on HRRR.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gonna setup a gravy train further east at the end of jts run. That depiction makes sense overall on HRRR.

Another convective round to go in eastern areas.

Healthy run.

 

[CoastalWx]

Meanwhile Nam will stein western CT. I’ll toss that. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

NAM 3KM washes away the Catskills.  

[Snowedin]

5 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

 

No idea what you’re going on about. It was certainly COC here today with dews in the 50’s for AEMATT.  I don’t think anybody would argue today was in fact a perfect COC day for July standards. 
 

And the last 2 weeks have been similar. Low dews, cool nights, bright sun and breezy during the day. Couldn’t draw it up any better and the numbers prove it. Complete opposite of HHH

I will say as a proud member of the dew crew that those few days when that wildfire smoke mixed with haze from Canada overtook us, the air had to be the most soupy and stagnant it’s been all season, at least around here. I remember going outside on one of those days to work on the garden and my face was drenched with sweat after just 15 minutes. Maybe we can squeak out one or two more stretches of full body stankness before the seasons through.

[vortex95]

18 hours ago, dendrite said:

I doubt you’d find a resident there that said 102° is not hot. The record for yesterday is 104° in 1931 and 1933. They’re also now +7.0F for the month where the std devs are at their lowest. Looks like that 80.8F mean will place this July at the 4th warmest all time with 8 of the top 9 warmest Julys occurring since 2000.

I won’t pretend to claim I know the history of the MLS ASOS siting though. Maybe pre-ASOS was a “cooler” siting. 

I appreciate you input and response!

My point is that 102 there is not the same as 102 in New England b/c the mean temps in the summer are significantly higher in this part of the county, so they are more used to 100 deg temps, so not as impactful net-net.  It all relative to the normal climate.  102 in MLS is like 95 in BOS (dry bulb temp).

Also, when they hit 102 on 7/26, dew points were in the mid 30s, so that gave a max heat index of 96, so that's a lot closer to their avg high, and this from a human impact standpoint, is that not better?  But the media ignores this.  Heat index is only mentioned when it is higher than the air temp.  

MLS POR is 1937 to present, at least for continuous records for monthly averages, so that removes a significant part of the very hot 1930s as to reference the hottest Julys, so although it has hot periods in recent decades, it is not likely as impressive as it seems given the POR.

Yes it is still hot, but we need to adjust for climate of the location and the dew points present.  It needs to be scaled.  Again, going back to the E Coast media bias, they do not take this into account when reporting.  They think 90 is "hot" everywhere.   I've seen before, "oh it was so hot in DFW today w/ high of 95!", and their normal high in July is 97.  See the problem here?  The have no context or perspective.  Facts are meaningless w/o context.  To them it is all just one "furnace" that will end things.

[vortex95]

22 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

3k Nam goes ham in western CT but end of its range doesn’t quite show what happens for everyone else. 
 

Think one jack is probably SWCT and maybe secondary ern/SE MA. 
 

It doesn’t end there, aftn stuff Thursday and maybe even Friday. So many get a good drink. 

Scott's favorite model does this (00z RRFS)!!!  Aug 1955 Diane totals!

But the 06z HRRR has almost 7" for Weymouth!
 

[CoastalWx]

45 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Scott's favorite model does this (00z RRFS)!!!  Aug 1955 Diane totals!

But the 06z HRRR has almost 7" for Weymouth!
 

Garbage model. 
 

Although I still like SW CT Jack and a secondary one out east.  Models did seem to back off a bit in wrn CT but it could easily come back so no need to knee jerk. 

[Lava Rock]

Frcst less than 1". Shocking

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[BrianW]

[kdxken]

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Another convective round to go in eastern areas.

Healthy run.

 

Similar totals and placement as the early July Rainer?

[kdxken]

Atmosphere certainly feels loaded.

[vortex95]

22 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't know if I see much flooding potential outside of any typical flood-prone areas that flood if it precipitates for more than 5 minutes. A lot of this is drawn out over multiple days and ends up being more convective in nature. There will be a good slug of rain early on in the setup with the warm front or even triple point but this looks to occlude rather quickly. Any flooding risk probably confined to (if) any areas that are hit with several rounds of convection. 

Yes once again, duration. 6" in 48 hr is *not* the same as 6" in 6 hr!  And w/ areas still w/ deficits, it mitigates things.  Wrn and srn CT do has more of flood risk this time tho.

[vortex95]

21 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d probably side with some high res models but perhaps not fully. Maybe a Nam/euro compromise. 
 

This feels like one of those things that we have a 50 mile wide plume of heavy rain with embedded little meso lows in it that will enhance rainfall. That’s especially true I think for Western areas. Further east, we might see another one sort of develop and try to pinwheel to the coast again and some typical enhancement on East Northeast flow. But these setups are always varying from run to run. I do think even up to Dendrite gets a good drink.

What about the 6.5" for Weymouth the HRRR has?  Is that a garbage model as well?

[w1pf]

Somebody's all-in.. 

[vortex95]

20 hours ago, kdxken said:

I just had to

"Ever -  in our life"  Whose life?  That is highly variable dependent on the person!  Meaningless w/ context or standardization.

Slicing and dicing down stats per day for any location you can find that has a record is bottomless pit.  Always tons of stats like this, and when you consider how many wx parameters we have records for, and all the locations?   Most of it is minutia or meaningless as to sensible wx impact, and yet the "race to the bottom" for content has resulted in this drivel.

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Same here. Dews have risen as the temps dropped. During peak temps today, dews were in the mid 50s. Currently 72/65 which feels great.

Dewy this AM. 68F currently. A full 16F higher than 24hr ago.

[vortex95]

20 hours ago, dendrite said:

Mins on this day in 2001. Yes that’s a 45° at BED.

Someone get grandpa off the internet.

34 F for a low at Barre Falls MA 7/1/1988.  Same time MWN had 4" of snow for it most snow so late.

[vortex95]

17 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Looks to be getting even stronger now

HP intense tornado in the morning.

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I followed the major tornado that hit the area along Lake Winnebago in Wisconsin.  It moved north to south.  I just watched a really interesting video that was taken along the lake.   It looks like as the winds shifted from the east the lake rose several fee.  Watch the lake water level.  Was it just the wind?  Was it the rapid pressure rise?  I have never seen something like this.  Attached is the general area and direction. Thoughts?

 

Meteotsunami or seiche. Speed of storms is often key, but local bay/inlets can have odd things happen even w/o fast moving storms.