Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[CoastalWx]

Debris clouds 

[Damage In Tolland]

Smoke 

[Cyclone-68]

This is interesting:

Some of the high-res
guidance is beginning to come around to the idea of showing
convective development trailing back westward along a cold front
with a weakening capping inversion into central VT/NH as soon as
early overnight; but the timing and coverage of this activity still
is pretty scattershot across the high-res suite. This could
ultimately end up being a nowcast situation, but given this trend I
couldn`t really justify NBM`s nil PoPs. Opted for up to 30% PoP
along the MA/NH/VT border between 4-7 AM Wed, then slowly sagging
southward through the day. If any storms develop, they would
likely become strong to potentially severe quickly given the
degree of instability aloft and pretty strong NW mid-level
winds, with frequent lightning, hail and strong straight line
winds all possible, potentially early in the day as well. Low
confidence but potentially higher impact if storms can
materialize.

[BrianW]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Smoke 

 I can smell it outside right now. 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

 I can smell it outside right now. 

 

Methuen borders Lawrence I can always smell smoke where I live in Methuen....

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

This is interesting:

Some of the high-res
guidance is beginning to come around to the idea of showing
convective development trailing back westward along a cold front
with a weakening capping inversion into central VT/NH as soon as
early overnight; but the timing and coverage of this activity still
is pretty scattershot across the high-res suite. This could
ultimately end up being a nowcast situation, but given this trend I
couldn`t really justify NBM`s nil PoPs. Opted for up to 30% PoP
along the MA/NH/VT border between 4-7 AM Wed, then slowly sagging
southward through the day. If any storms develop, they would
likely become strong to potentially severe quickly given the
degree of instability aloft and pretty strong NW mid-level
winds, with frequent lightning, hail and strong straight line
winds all possible, potentially early in the day as well. Low
confidence but potentially higher impact if storms can
materialize.

Some hi res show an iso storm around here tomorrow. Probably ends up south though. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Time of day does matter if you want to realize the max sfc temp for the day using 850.  Reaching 27 C after peak heating is not the same for sfc temp as already being 27 C in the morning and the mixing out fully for peak heating.

I knew what you meant ...  I was just adding for general readers that physics requires that a well mixed column has to obey the adiabat temperature distribution in general.   If it is 2 am , and the 850 is 20C, and it is well mixed, it's in the 90s at the sfc. 

Whether or not the atmosphere is can be well mixed at 2 am or not is another matter LOL.

That's why nearing evening on hot days, if one is excruciatingly nerdy enough like me... they might notice the light west wind that had steadily rustled leafs all afternoon suddenly goes calm; it's because the surface - albeit still hotter'n Hades - has slipped below the adiabat.  That adiabatic temperature might be 98 given the 850, but the sfc has by then dropped below that temp...etc.  DP plays a role... if the air is heavier it may stay elevated longer.   The other way to think of it is that the mixing height has slipped lower than 850, and if there is a weaker/no gradient in those lower levels, that extinguishes the momentum.

[Cyclone-68]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some hi res show an iso storm around here tomorrow. Probably ends up south though. 

Wiz to his credit mentioned this as a possibility just yesterday 

[dendrite]

Tough way to run a torch day. Maine stealing the rain. Looks like a nice storm diving into the CT Lakes in a bit. 

Been limiting screen time…just hit or miss posts. Lots of eye inflammation and migraines. Should probably get a lyme test but that would require going to a dr.

71°

[Typhoon Tip]

49 minutes ago, BrianW said:

 I can smell it outside right now. 

 

I noticed the wild fires N of Superior yesterday. Their plumes were streaking from source, due E at ludicrous speeds... owing to the ridge amplitude kissing the modest lower heights over midriff Canadian shield.  ..blah blah. 

That said, there's definitely an MCS that's raged through eastern Ontario ...curving now SE through western QUE and is producing the typical outflow anvil canopy. 

It seems likely based upon these observations that both are true.   It's probably hard to parse out of the vis satellite images how much is smoke and how much is cloud...I'd suggest most of what is seen is cloud however. 

[dendrite]

Yeah not feeling too optimistic about much sun today, but it’s early.

[Great Snow 1717]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Tough way to run a torch day. Maine stealing the rain. Looks like a nice storm diving into the CT Lakes in a bit. 

Been limiting screen time…just hit or miss posts. Lots of eye inflammation and migraines. Should probably get a lyme test but that would require going to a dr.

71°

https://www.acudarthealth.com/products/acudart-at-home-lyme-test

Going off of memory here so please verify....I think Quest Diagnostics offers appointments to be tested for Lyme Disease.

Also there are tele health services that you can contact.

 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

https://www.acudarthealth.com/products/acudart-at-home-lyme-test

Going off of memory here so please verify....I think Quest Diagnostics offers appointments to be tested for Lyme Disease.

Also there are tele health services that you can contact.

 

Thanks…yeah. Just hate going to the dr unless I have a limb hanging off.

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Thanks…yeah. Just hate going to the dr unless I have a limb hanging off.

 

I got Lyme disease last summer. I didn’t even know it. I had that classic circle on my leg and my wife freaked out. Wanted me to get it tested. Sure enough I had like two tick born illnesses. But I didn’t really feel any different.

[Great Snow 1717]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Thanks…yeah. Just hate going to the dr unless I have a limb hanging off.

 

Walk in centers are a good choice too

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I got Lyme disease last summer. I didn’t even know it. I had that classic circle on my leg and my wife freaked out. Wanted me to get it tested. Sure enough I had like two tick born illnesses. But I didn’t really feel any different.

I’ve been keeping track. 47 ticks on me and 11 that were lodged in. Mostly deer ticks and the embedded ones were mostly nymphs.

Haven’t had a ring rash…just the regular redness with local irritation and itchiness for a few weeks. But the last few weeks have been rough energy wise and now my eyes and head. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ve been keeping track. 47 ticks on me and 11 that were lodged in. Mostly deer ticks and the embedded ones were mostly nymphs.

Haven’t had a ring rash…just the regular redness with local irritation and itchiness for a few weeks. But the last few weeks have been rough energy wise and now my eyes and head. 

Don't eff around. I went to urgent care to get it looked at. Why feel like shit and/or have it escalate?

[Boston Bulldog]

Clouds and smoke during peak heating today… take the under on temps?

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Clouds and smoke during peak heating today… take the under on temps?

Think so.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Tough way to run a torch day. Maine stealing the rain. Looks like a nice storm diving into the CT Lakes in a bit. 

Been limiting screen time…just hit or miss posts. Lots of eye inflammation and migraines. Should probably get a lyme test but that would require going to a dr.

71°

First of all    LOL.   I hear you on the bold.

I'd also suggest experimentally cutting out all processed sugar and all process carbs.    Go abruptly and strictly keto - not intending to keto diet, per se...it's just that you'll coincidentally end up in that area.

A bit long.  If you are tl;dr types, "go swipe yourselves"

I backed into this accidental solution/panacea for a life-long  ... seemingly unresolvable Middle-east conflict resolution that raged in my skull for the last 5,000 years of never finding peace.  Yes ... it was so bad, that I must have had these before I was born! 

Lol.  anyway, this may not work for everyone. Understood.  I had done enough research over the years to submit a legit master's level dissertation in the physiology of cortical abnormalities science...  Half of which resulted in female hormonal imbalances - which believe it or not ... males are 100% escaped from consideration despite clickety-clackin' balls, just exceptionally rare.  Excluding those, diet and stresses are main correlations in the inter-quartile density of the suffering bell-curve males.  Within that window - unfortunately ... - there is no one size fits all.  

However, "high fructose corn syrup" is, believe it not, specifically isolated in the science of triggers in males and females, regardless.   There are others there, too.

I'm clearly talking about 3 subjects concurrently in that paragraph so I'm sure I've lost the reader.   Short version, I was borderline diabetic 2 years ago and it freaked the shit out of me, because my mother ... who sadly was a walking bag of morbidity issues in the last 20 years of life ( so we're lucky we got her to 78 ), died around then in part complications from poorly managed Type-2.  I need a solution, now! 

Longer version:   My thing was that I was doing an experimental carb loading diet, because was attempting to add power lifting to my normal workout routines ... a range of motion that my shape ( more on the lanky side) isn't very natively responsive too.   It didn't help my weight lifting.  It only fucked up my blood numbers.  I was pretty confident that all I had to do was go back to the other life-style and it would correct... I mean I wasn't redic in the numbers.  A1c was the metric that made the Dr. immediately flip open his notepad with a lusty gleam in his eyes like a button-nosed moon faced weeble-wobble lording over a parfait.  I'm convinced their getting commish' but in theory, that's supposed to be illegal now...  Either way, I don't want to rely on the Industrial Medicine Complex... I told him no.  

I came home crest fallen and spent the afternoon sulking questions of life decisions. I came to a decision. Instead of sulk raging against the reality of it I'd go the other way.  I would OCD the subject and eat like paranoid parsimonious field rabbit nibbling away in puma country - motivated in no part for fearing death from having observed my mother's decline and knowing that gee... I have some genetic lineage there. 

I guess to be a fair, the extremism of discipline was mostly in the sugars.  I researched mono vs disaccharides down to chemical nomenclature. How they occur in nature, like naturally... How the liver breaks them down.  Glycogen pathways in normal vs abnormal physiological states.  Taste, and how Industry fools you into getting their processed version of these sugars, which include refined grains, into you so that you'll addict and come back... Keen conceptual awareness into the mechanisms that are connecting all these facets.  I formulated a diet over two weeks of trial and error that closely avoided vs added crucial stock.

Given time, I did allow in small amounts of organic sourced, non-vegetable complex carbs, but only after research and learning had gained confidences.  Authentic/organic Rye bread in short supply is okay. But absolutely 0 anything that falls within that former definition - even if suspiciously. No processed/added sugars, nor processed carbs... No white pasta/rices... White's kind of a "dark" word in dietary-related health.  This all obviously should  (because it does ...) mean no soda ( obviously).  No sports drinks. No fruit juices, which are toxic sugar isolation no matter what Tropicana says.  Squeezing your own oranges, for example, is very bad for you.  All assumptions handed down culturally from prior generations had to be reviewed and hate say... had to be modulated and/or discarded.  Really, the average person has not f clue, man. 

I did these measures for several months, ...I time in which after a life-long dependable 3-on-average migraine days per month, I had ....     none.  Not one.  But didn't immediately realize this.  

(Btw, I want to also point out.  Migraines in the context of this missive refers to headaches of a particularly defined and scientifically studied physiological phenomenon.  Many people refer to bad headaches as migraine, but most people in fact are not suffering what the clinical progression of a migraine event.  There are two types:  Aura, and non-aura.   Aura is a part of the prodrome phase. The patient will incur transient blindness, typically in one eye or the other - if it is both, definitely talk to a physician with some urgency, because that could be connected to ischemia/blood loss and stroke. This is also true if one had never experience an aura prior in life, but then suddenly began doing so at mid life.  The aura tends to fade over and hour and is replaced with disabling head pain that can involve other physiological nervous responses (nausea ..tingling hands.. weird smelling and sensitivity to light and sound that is otherwise normal).  Non-Aura migraines may have other prodrome symptoms that do not include visual disruptions, but both types typically end up in this latter list of delicious dreams of eating a bullet to make it stop.)

After a couple of follow-ups out through month 9 ...nearing a year, my A1c was had indeed returned well within the safe range.  I had switched Dr.s ( different reason) in the interim, but the new Dr walked in and she said, "..so congratulations; most people at mid life that come in here for this are not going back," as she flipped a page on her clipboard.  I reply was, "... anything to not become death-fearing manacled to the assumption of good-will big Pharma".  

I think it's a lesson in the virtue of just tracking lifestyle changes and being aware of cause-and-effects... You know?   I was fine, carb loading, not fine.  How about I just not carb load, before flipping open the prescription notepad, huh.  Still, no 'graines.  Not one.  It had finally occurred to me. 

I did finally get one.  But the key here is that A, it was just 1 after 13 or 14 months - not 36.  B, because it was 1, it was easier to isolate a possible cause.  I was down a meal and in route to a disc golf round, and my buddy had a couple of protein bars... I ate them... and as that extra-double top-secret soup saccharine sweet heroin hit my brain... I was more interested in getting it in because on top of that dopamine hit, I was legit over hungry.  About mid way through the 2nd bar, it hit me though.  Uh oh. Wait!  I read ingredients... it had all these added "sugar syrups"... Next day?   BAM.. in fact, I had 3 that week after.  Which is also consistent with the H fructose CS literature at PubMed; that man-mad industrial sugar substitute doesn't breakdown in the liver like the other sugars in nature do -those that have gone through the crucible of biological evolution... It doesn't matter how many cycles of testing these Industries claim make their pap safe, nothing holds a candle to 750,000 years of trail and error by Nature. 

All that... and, maybe you got Lyme.  Ha

[Great Snow 1717]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ve been keeping track. 47 ticks on me and 11 that were lodged in. Mostly deer ticks and the embedded ones were mostly nymphs.

Haven’t had a ring rash…just the regular redness with local irritation and itchiness for a few weeks. But the last few weeks have been rough energy wise and now my eyes and head. 

Getting tested takes a short amount of time. Around the 4th of July 2025 I was bitten by "something" on the back of my right leg. By pure chance I touched the back of my leg and it felt sore...I had my wife take a look and she told me there was about a 3 inch area of redness. I knew instantly it was cellulitis.

I went to a walk in center and I was on antibiotics within 2 hours.  I did ask the doctor on the 1-10 scale what was the level of the cellulitis and she said it was a 3...then she added that cellulitis can quickly progress and it is good you came in..

Do yourself a favor...get seen today ASAP by a medical professional..early treatment is always the best treatment..

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Christmas Day 2015 baby.  Only time in 70 years without a trace of snow at the CO-OP stake.  Not even ice on the cliffs.  Had a couple nights cold enough to blow a white ribbon, ha.

Farther south at Central Park, Dec 2015 average temp would've been 2.7° AN - for November.  The 50.8° average was 6.2° warmer than any other NYC December since records began in 1869, a stand-alone gap that had to be many SDs ahead of the #2 mark.

[ineedsnow]

All these extreme heat forecast are going to go up in smoke today! 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

All these extreme heat forecast are going to go up in smoke today! 

Instead of 98 it's 94. What a bust. Still could happen if this stuff melts out which it is doing.

[Torch Tiger]

Smoked out

[Torch Tiger]

Nice day though 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Tough way to run a torch day. Maine stealing the rain. Looks like a nice storm diving into the CT Lakes in a bit. 

Been limiting screen time…just hit or miss posts. Lots of eye inflammation and migraines. Should probably get a lyme test but that would require going to a dr.

71°

Do it.  Chronic Lyme is something you don't want to acquire - it can mess up all kinds of functions and sometimes be life threatening.  A woman in our church has had chronic Lyme for 5-6 years and it's still causing her lots of problems.

[powderfreak]

End of times yellow glow around here from the smoke.

[mreaves]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

End of times yellow glow around here from the smoke.

It is eerie out.  BTV says sun breaks out late and we make a run at 90°.