Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

crazy to think a 45% sig 1 is still only an enhanced.

We may never even see a moderate risk in our area again  

It was probably the goal. 

But I do think widespread coverage of 45kt gusts probably doesn't deserve a moderate. 

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It was probably the goal. 

But I do think widespread coverage of 45kt gusts probably doesn't deserve a moderate. 

Agreed. The more I dig into the changes and thought about it, the changes are a great positive. The number of moderate risk/high risk issuances should be reduced and only conserved for events that hold true significant and widespread potential. And for our area at least, we maybe get those type of setups with that potential maybe once every five years, if lucky. Probably closer to 1:7. 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Agreed. The more I dig into the changes and thought about it, the changes are a great positive. The number of moderate risk/high risk issuances should be reduced and only conserved for events that hold true significant and widespread potential. And for our area at least, we maybe get those type of setups with that potential maybe once every five years, if lucky. Probably closer to 1:7. 

The biggest issue with the change is that it only applies to organized severe, and we get quite a bit of disorganized severe. So microbursts fall outside of the scope of the outlooks.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The biggest issue with the change is that it only applies to organized severe, and we get quite a bit of disorganized severe. So microbursts fall outside of the scope of the outlooks.

There almost needs to be a separate scale for the Northeast. The impacts are not equal to other regions. Sure other regions get the higher end severe and more significant, however, a you can get a squall line rip through the Northeast and result in >50,000 power outages and put that line of same strength through the mid-west and barely get 20,000 power outages. Lots of reasons for that obviously but impacts here can be greater just because of population density and trees and how the power grid is configured 

[ineedsnow]

12z Euro floods @Damage In Tolland 

[kdxken]

Scooter getting his thunderstorm.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro floods @Damage In Tolland 

Seymour Rain

[NoCORH4L]

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro floods @Damage In Tolland 

The rich become richer.  We need the rain in our area. Dry dry.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

The rich become richer.  We need the rain in our area. Dry dry.

You’ve had double the rain this summer. We Had 2.6 all of June and .10 this month. When this ends up coastal CT south Imma lose it  . Look at that sharp cutoff . Tell tale sign when you see that 

[Torch Tiger]

Radar looks decent, maybe we'll catch a shower today?

[dendrite]

Ugh move that north

[Hoth]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ugh move that north

Yes, please take it!

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Nice 4th up here in Wilton,Maine.  85 and mostly sunny.  

About the same 2 towns to the east, with a nice breeze.  Low 60s dew still sticky but much more tolerable than Thursday's 70+.

[codfishsnowman]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I think some earlier forecasts had it being pretty hot Sunday, but that's out the window now.  Even the Extreme heat warnings for today have been pared back in some areas 

Two days ago they had low 90s here and for awhile I thought Monday had a shot not that was before all the clouds and shower chances started showing up 

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

NH Seacoast special later today?

Unbelievable 

[Torch Tiger]

I love how the tail of that little cluster JUST missed Nashua, but also sent a wind-shift through there to muck up storms 

[NoCORH4L]

Just got done pouring at Killington, been raining since 1:30, vibes are a little sour. 

[dendrite]

Everything moved in mysterious ways today. I feel like I have a webbed hand on my shoulder after seeing some of these qpf maps

[weatherwiz]

Does anyone subscribe to weatherfront? I’ve been looking at that for quite a while. Been debating on doing the highest tier for radar scope for $100/year but weatherfront may be the edge given it has models

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Seymour Rain

Let’s do it.

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Let’s do it.

18z NAM gone wild

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z NAM gone wild

Only 4.5 for Kev. 

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Only 4.5 for Kev. 

His lawn will just wash away now after being Steined for a month.

[Chrisrotary12]

Surely these will find a way to miss. 

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Only 4.5 for Kev. 

These will be fun to bump on Tuesday when CT shore to NYC gets crushed with much less here . Especially Ryan’s posts 

[Damage In Tolland]

Hopefully HRRR is wrong with the storms  tonight missing here  to the south and instead we actually get some rain . If that happens and they get crushed 5-10 miles SW I may light fireworks into neighbors windows. For now radar looks semi promising 

[ineedsnow]

18z ICON

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z ICON

That kind of shows the concerns. Very narrow area of big rains . With sharp cutoff not far north . Convective processes gonna F with models until Monday morning runs . Hopefully an inch here 

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z ICON

Let's get after it! 6-12"+!

[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully HRRR is wrong with the storms  tonight missing here  to the south and instead we actually get some rain . If that happens and they get crushed 5-10 miles SW I may light fireworks into neighbors windows. For now radar looks semi promising 

Models going to be all over.. but someone will flood