Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

crazy to think a 45% sig 1 is still only an enhanced.

We may never even see a moderate risk in our area again  

It was probably the goal. 

But I do think widespread coverage of 45kt gusts probably doesn't deserve a moderate. 

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It was probably the goal. 

But I do think widespread coverage of 45kt gusts probably doesn't deserve a moderate. 

Agreed. The more I dig into the changes and thought about it, the changes are a great positive. The number of moderate risk/high risk issuances should be reduced and only conserved for events that hold true significant and widespread potential. And for our area at least, we maybe get those type of setups with that potential maybe once every five years, if lucky. Probably closer to 1:7. 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Agreed. The more I dig into the changes and thought about it, the changes are a great positive. The number of moderate risk/high risk issuances should be reduced and only conserved for events that hold true significant and widespread potential. And for our area at least, we maybe get those type of setups with that potential maybe once every five years, if lucky. Probably closer to 1:7. 

The biggest issue with the change is that it only applies to organized severe, and we get quite a bit of disorganized severe. So microbursts fall outside of the scope of the outlooks.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The biggest issue with the change is that it only applies to organized severe, and we get quite a bit of disorganized severe. So microbursts fall outside of the scope of the outlooks.

There almost needs to be a separate scale for the Northeast. The impacts are not equal to other regions. Sure other regions get the higher end severe and more significant, however, a you can get a squall line rip through the Northeast and result in >50,000 power outages and put that line of same strength through the mid-west and barely get 20,000 power outages. Lots of reasons for that obviously but impacts here can be greater just because of population density and trees and how the power grid is configured 

[ineedsnow]

12z Euro floods @Damage In Tolland 

[kdxken]

Scooter getting his thunderstorm.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro floods @Damage In Tolland 

Seymour Rain

[NoCORH4L]

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro floods @Damage In Tolland 

The rich become richer.  We need the rain in our area. Dry dry.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

The rich become richer.  We need the rain in our area. Dry dry.

You’ve had double the rain this summer. We Had 2.6 all of June and .10 this month. When this ends up coastal CT south Imma lose it  . Look at that sharp cutoff . Tell tale sign when you see that 

[Torch Tiger]

Radar looks decent, maybe we'll catch a shower today?

[dendrite]

Ugh move that north

[Hoth]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ugh move that north

Yes, please take it!

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Nice 4th up here in Wilton,Maine.  85 and mostly sunny.  

About the same 2 towns to the east, with a nice breeze.  Low 60s dew still sticky but much more tolerable than Thursday's 70+.