Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Maestrobjwa]

In case anybody thinks I'm being too much of doomer about having to wait at least three years if this nino doesn't deliver a big snow: With the assumption that the ninas double dip...it's either this year or 29-30 for the next chance:

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 Looking at El Niño seasons that at some point maxed out at +2.0C for a trimonthly in Nino 3.4 (using Eric Webb’s tables for pre-1950 and the latest version of NOAA RONI for 1950+), this is what followed in ASO as well as the subsequent fall/winter:

1877-8: ASO +0.1 followed by cold neutral
1888-9: ASO -1.1 followed by strong La Niña
1965-6: ASO 0.0 followed by cold neutral
1972-3: ASO -1.3 followed by strong La Niña
1982-3: ASO -0.6 followed by moderate La Niña
1991-2: ASO +0.1 followed by weak El Niño
1997-8: ASO -1.2 followed by strong La Niña
2015-6: ASO -0.9 followed by moderate La Niña


Tally for these 8 strongest El Niños on record:

5 La Niña (3 strong, 2 moderate) (62.5%)
2 cold neutral (25%)
1 weak El Niño (12.5%)

So, this suggests the best chance is clearly for La Niña although it also suggests to not dismiss the possibility of something else, mainly cold neutral, especially IF this were to peak later than model consensus has been suggesting (say, in Jan instead of Nov). Of the 3 of these that didn’t go to La Niña, 1877-8 peaked between NDJ and DJF while 1991-2 peaked in DJF. OTOH, 1965-6 peaked early (OND) and still didn’t go all the way to La Niña the following year as it stopped at cold neutral. Note that the 3 that were neutral in ASO never made it to La Niña.
____________________

Sources of data:

1. Webb’s tables (used for pre-1950):

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

2. NOAA RONI (1950+):
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In case anybody thinks I'm being too much of doomer about having to wait at least three years if this nino doesn't deliver a big snow: With the assumption that the ninas double dip...it's either this year or 29-30 for the next chance:

 

1. The best hope for 2027-8 might be for it to be like 3 of these 8 analogs and not be La Niña for the NE:

1878-9: near to AN snow

1966-7: well AN snow

1992-3: BN to AN snow

 

2. Regarding the snow for the 5 that did become LN, not good:

1889-90: BN

1973-4: NN

1983-4: BN

1998-9: BN

2016-7: MBN

[psuhoffman]

21 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In case anybody thinks I'm being too much of doomer about having to wait at least three years if this nino doesn't deliver a big snow: With the assumption that the ninas double dip...it's either this year or 29-30 for the next chance:

 

It is true that 6 of the last 7 HECS storms came in a nino but those are such super rare events anyways.  We've had plenty of SECS/MECS events in other enso states, at least until recently.  Recently we've not had big snowtorms in ANY enso state.  The last 2 Nino's didn't produce a significant snow for Baltimore either.  If this winter does not that would be 3 in a row.  At some point maybe you just have to accept a difficult truth.  

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It is true that 6 of the last 7 HECS storms came in a nino but those are such super rare events anyways.  We've had plenty of SECS/MECS events in other enso states, at least until recently.  Recently we've not had big snowtorms in ANY enso state.  The last 2 Nino's didn't produce a significant snow for Baltimore either.  If this winter does not that would be 3 in a row.  At some point maybe you just have to accept a difficult truth.  

Something had to change though. It has been a decade of futility for us western folks. I will take my chances with some wound up bombs for once. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It is true that 6 of the last 7 HECS storms came in a nino but those are such super rare events anyways.  We've had plenty of SECS/MECS events in other enso states, at least until recently.  Recently we've not had big snowtorms in ANY enso state.  The last 2 Nino's didn't produce a significant snow for Baltimore either.  If this winter does not that would be 3 in a row.  At some point maybe you just have to accept a difficult truth.  

I mean at least if this one doesn't produce there's a known reason (super east based). Does it belong in the same category as the other two? What does bother me is how a switch suddenly flipped in 2016. Yeah I know the snow margins overall were going down in the two decades before...but that period of time still had footers (what I call storms over 12") every 3-4 years, with that heater between 2010-2016. Then after 2016 and it all just stops cold. No slow decline, just outright stops...I thought climo change was supposed to be gradual? Lol That's what makes me wonder if the super niño back then accelerated things, or made the atmosphereor can this one "reset" things once again?

But if the next niño after this one behaves the same way the previous two did then yeah we might be cooked, smh

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Something had to change though. It has been a decade of futility for us western folks. I will take my chances with some wound up bombs for once. 

At some point we will get a big snowstorm again.  I am not saying it will never snow again.  However, we are in a hostile PDO cycle.  You can track these long term cycles and see the impact on our snowfall.  The issue is the hostile periods are becoming MORE hostile.  It's becoming VERY difficult to get big snowfall years during hostile cycles.  It was never easy during hostile pacific cycles but now its becoming increasingly unlikely to even luck into some fluke snowy seasons during a hostile period.  Eventually we will... I don't think it's impossible just less and less likely.  And eventually the PDO will flip again and we will have a more favorable cycle and probably a period of 15-20 years with "more" snowfall but the last 2 favorable cycles showed a decrease from period "snowy" cycles also so don't expect another 1960's or even another 2000-2016 period.  But we will see snowier periods than what we've just experienced again.  But my point is using past "normal" trends to set expectations is flawed since we know things are changing and becoming more hostile.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean at least if this one doesn't produce there's a known reason (super east based). Does it belong in the same category as the other two? What does bother me is how a switch suddenly flipped in 2016. Yeah I know the snow margins overall were going down in the two decades before...but that period of time still had footers (what I call storms over 12") every 3-4 years, with that heater between 2010-2016. Then after 2016 and it all just stops cold. No slow decline, just outright stops...I thought climo change was supposed to be gradual? Lol That's what makes me wonder if the super niño back then accelerated things, or made the atmosphereor can this one "reset" things once again?

But if the next niño after this one behaves the same way the previous two did then yeah we might be cooked, smh

3 ninos is 3 ninos.  You're digging too deep trying to find a silver lining.  But lets wait until we actually fail before we start this analysis.  I think we have a 40-50% chance of a big snowstorm this winter.  Let's hope luck is on our side.  

 

But 2 things to keep in mind.  The nino is 2016 warmed the pacific and super charged what was already a bad trend.  And we've been in a very hostile pacific pattern ever since.  Similar past periods with a similarly hostile long term cycle were low snowfall also, but things are getting worse so a bad cycle now is REALLY REALLY REALLY bad.  It's that simple...the pattern we've been in the last 10 years would have been a bad snowfall period in any era, but now with warming bad is super awful bad.  That's it... it's pretty simple.  

[WEATHER53]

2026-2027 Winter Outlook 

Temps

Dec:0 to +2

Jan:-1 to +1

Feb:-5

Snowfall range 20-25”  

primary analogs:1962-63, 2002-03, 2012-13 

There are variabilities in those years but they best compare to what I observed this spring thru now.

We do get some Miller As this year and some repeats of what we just had with lows being more intense and closer to the coast .  Problem is temps like in 97-98 but Feb looks plenty cold enough .

 

[AlexD1990]

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

2026-2027 Winter Outlook 

Temps

Dec:0 to +2

Jan:-1 to +1

Feb:-5

Snowfall range 20-25”  

primary analogs:1962-63, 2002-03, 2012-13 

There are variabilities in those years but they best compare to what I observed this spring thru now.

We do get some Miller As this year and some repeats of what we just had with lows being more intense and closer to the coast .  Problem is temps like in 97-98 but Feb looks plenty cold enough .

 

given what most seem to be indicating for the upcoming winter, i think everyone in the sub would take this in a NY minute. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I thought climo change was supposed to be gradual?

Tipping points are a hell of a drug. The issue is that climate change is of course gradual, the average temperatures trend up over a 30 year period, but to those living it appears as these shocking discrepancies. To the data aggregate it appears as a line ticking, then jumping, up. But to us, climate change appears as a Hurricane Helene, as another heat done over Europe, and as a realization that “it doesn’t snow here like it used to”. The 2016 El Niño and these oceanic processes are our heat transport mechanisms, and when you have major El Niño events you release a ton of heat from the oceans and thus effectively “jump” into the next, ever warmer, climate. It will snow again, we will have a HECS again (it may even be this winter!), but you will also see these droughts where the isotherm has simply shifted too far north for us to reliably get snowstorms. It is what it is. 

[WEATHER53]

PSU noted how 97-98 had close calls a number of times with DC at 35 and rain, Mason Dixon at 33 and slop and south central PA and n&w 31-32 and solid snows. 

[GramaxRefugee]

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

2026-2027 Winter Outlook 

...snip...

primary analogs:1962-63, 2002-03, 2012-13 

There are variabilities in those years but they best compare to what I observed this spring thru now.

We do get some Miller As this year and some repeats of what we just had with lows being more intense and closer to the coast .  Problem is temps like in 97-98 but Feb looks plenty cold enough .

 

Those analogs....pretty cold and snowy in December, except for 2012, but even that had some snow in Dec. 

Also 62-63 is coldest DJF winter (analysis since 1950), even colder than 1977 and 78.  Fourth coldest is 2002-3.   So....interesting.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

PSU noted how 97-98 had close calls a number of times with DC at 35 and rain, Mason Dixon at 33 and slop and south central PA and n&w 31-32 and solid snows. 

11.8" in Hanover and 11.4" in Harrisburg. Those locations lacked sufficient elevation to do well, though still muuuuch better than IAD, DCA and BWI.

[frd]

Wonder if the PDO in November or December gets to slightly positive. 

 

August 2026	-1.11
July 2026	-1.35
June 2026	-1.32
May 2026	-1.64
April 2026	-1.28
March 2026	-1.18
February 2026	-0.79
January 2026	-0.87
December 2025	-0.39
November 2025	-1.02
October 2025	-1.82
September 2025	-1.71
August 2025	-2.54
July 2025	-3.83
June 2025	-2.62

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

3 ninos is 3 ninos.  You're digging too deep trying to find a silver lining.  But lets wait until we actually fail before we start this analysis.  I think we have a 40-50% chance of a big snowstorm this winter.  Let's hope luck is on our side.  

 

But 2 things to keep in mind.  The nino is 2016 warmed the pacific and super charged what was already a bad trend.  And we've been in a very hostile pacific pattern ever since.  Similar past periods with a similarly hostile long term cycle were low snowfall also, but things are getting worse so a bad cycle now is REALLY REALLY REALLY bad.  It's that simple...the pattern we've been in the last 10 years would have been a bad snowfall period in any era, but now with warming bad is super awful bad.  That's it... it's pretty simple.  

I think I jumped to the analysis because I fully expect us to fail this time. I can't ignore the every-other super niño trend. 66' yes, 73'--no, 83' yes, 98'--no, 16'--yes, so it feels like this time will be a no. Not scientific, but just trend...

As for silver lining? Nah I wasn't trying to intentionally dig for one--remember I'm not optimistic enough for some around here, lol For me it's a matter of how long it'll be before we see significant snow again. I don't doubt things have changed. But I'd love to see what happens when we get into a +PDO regime again and see if it helps. But I'm at the point where I'm slowly expecting things to work less and less. But we'll see...

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think I jumped to the analysis because I fully expect us to fail this time. I can't ignore the every-other super niño trend. 66' yes, 73'--no, 83' yes, 98'--no, 16'--yes, so it feels like this time will be a no. Not scientific, but just trend...

As for silver lining? Nah I wasn't trying to intentionally dig for one--remember I'm not optimistic enough for some around here, lol For me it's a matter of how long it'll be before we see significant snow again. I don't doubt things have changed. But I'd love to see what happens when we get into a +PDO regime again and see if it helps. But I'm at the point where I'm slowly expecting things to work less and less. But we'll see...

2 counter points.  

1) a sample size of 5 is way too small to pull a meaningful trend from

2) your sample is arbitrary.  What made you include 1973 with a peak ONI of 1.9 and exclude 2024 with a peak ONI of 2.1?  

If you include 2024 then we are due this year.  If you exclude both of those years, or just 1973 which most do not consider a "SUPER" nino, the whole pattern disappears.  Either way I think my first point is the valid one...it's too small a sample size to try to find patterns like that.  Most of your patterns are simply artifacts of random chaos in a stochastic system.  

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa keep in mind for a pattern to be valid you have to be able to explain WHY the pattern is happening.  Otherwise it's likely the pattern is simply random.  If you flipped heads 5 times in a row, and the only coin flips you ever saw in your life were those 5, you would deduce that coin flips result in heads if you are simply looking for patters and not factoring in random chance and causality.  

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

11.8" in Hanover and 11.4" in Harrisburg. Those locations lacked sufficient elevation to do well, though still muuuuch better than IAD, DCA and BWI.

The mountains just to our west did significantly better that winter.  But there were several storms that were very close if it was just slightly colder.  Of course things have warmed even more since then.  

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Those analogs....pretty cold and snowy in December, except for 2012, but even that had some snow in Dec. 

Also 62-63 is coldest DJF winter (analysis since 1950), even colder than 1977 and 78.  Fourth coldest is 2002-3.   So....interesting.

I was surprised how two out of the 3 were real biggies 

Dec mild 2012 and Feb cold to very cold all Febs.  
With what I think will be 5+ Miller As this  season we will face more of a cold air struggle than those two very cold non Nino winters 

[WxUSAF]

I think we’ll get a number of juicy storms with “favorable” (south/east of us) storm tracks. Sufficiently cold air TBD. 

[WEATHER53]

4 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

2026-2027 Winter Outlook 

Temps

Dec:0 to +2

Jan:-1 to +1

Feb:-5

Snowfall range 20-25”  

primary analogs:1962-63, 2002-03, 2012-13 

There are variabilities in those years but they best compare to what I observed this spring thru now.

We do get some Miller As this year and some repeats of what we just had with lows being more intense and closer to the coast .  Problem is temps like in 97-98 but Feb looks plenty cold enough .

 

I will also pull from my grizzled veteran subjective notebook that my general observation has been that whenever we get an over performing, full moon enhanced coastal in very late Sept(25th or after) then that happens a number of times in winter.  For whatever reason, when it happens in very late Oct  or Nov, we tend to have lousy winters (with only a couple if exceptions)

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

I will also pull from my grizzled veteran subjective notebook that my general observation has been that whenever we get an over performing, full moon enhanced coastal in very late Sept(25th or after) then that happens a number of times in winter.  For whatever reason, when it happens in very late Oct  or Nov, we tend to have lousy winters (with only a couple if exceptions)

No October snow. I remain a firm believer it does not help the winter cause. Coastal storms? Sure. The more the merrier. 

[ensonerd1233e343]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

2 counter points.  

1) a sample size of 5 is way too small to pull a meaningful trend from

2) your sample is arbitrary.  What made you include 1973 with a peak ONI of 1.9 and exclude 2024 with a peak ONI of 2.1?  

If you include 2024 then we are due this year.  If you exclude both of those years, or just 1973 which most do not consider a "SUPER" nino, the whole pattern disappears.  Either way I think my first point is the valid one...it's too small a sample size to try to find patterns like that.  Most of your patterns are simply artifacts of random chaos in a stochastic system.  

well noaa uses roni so if were being honest disculde 2024 and keep 1973 but the overall point is just an intresting pattern imo 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The mountains just to our west did significantly better that winter.  But there were several storms that were very close if it was just slightly colder.  Of course things have warmed even more since then.  

I figured the mts must have done better, but not living here then I didn't know for certain.

I'm not worried about the warming planet if we have the right pattern/track. 50+ years ago (as in the early and mid 70's) were horrendous with many snow to ip or mainly zr/ip storms. The only 6"+ storm I recall during that period was in 12/73, and that switched over to ip/zr before ending south of BWI. It wasn't until the NE blizzard in early 2/78 that BWI got close to a 10" snowfall. Of all things, it was the mother of all Miller B's too. 

But I  agree 100% with your earlier post that it's the -PDO state that's killing us. I do think, however, this Niño is going to shake things up in the Pacific and would expect a shift away from a -PDO in the means very soon, as in next year or the year after.

[ensonerd1233e343]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

I will also pull from my grizzled veteran subjective notebook that my general observation has been that whenever we get an over performing, full moon enhanced coastal in very late Sept(25th or after) then that happens a number of times in winter.  For whatever reason, when it happens in very late Oct  or Nov, we tend to have lousy winters (with only a couple if exceptions)

huh

[ensonerd1233e343]

6 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

2026-2027 Winter Outlook 

Temps

Dec:0 to +2

Jan:-1 to +1

Feb:-5

Snowfall range 20-25”  

primary analogs:1962-63, 2002-03, 2012-13 

There are variabilities in those years but they best compare to what I observed this spring thru now.

We do get some Miller As this year and some repeats of what we just had with lows being more intense and closer to the coast .  Problem is temps like in 97-98 but Feb looks plenty cold enough .

 

wait 1962 and 2012 are not el ninos? I have doubts we would get a pattern like them if it was a weaker nino maybe but i would expect the super nino to overwhelm the pattern in the seasonal mean largely

[mitchnick]

Just now, ensonerd1233e343 said:

wait 1962 and 2012 are not el ninos? I have doubts we would get a pattern like them if it was a weaker nino maybe but i would expect the super nino to overwhelm the pattern in the seasonal mean largely

His forecasts include Enso consideration but it's mainly based on actual weather during this calendar year. The exact formula/considerations he has never disclosed. 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

2026-2027 Winter Outlook 

Temps

Dec:0 to +2

Jan:-1 to +1

Feb:-5

Snowfall range 20-25”  

primary analogs:1962-63, 2002-03, 2012-13 

There are variabilities in those years but they best compare to what I observed this spring thru now.

We do get some Miller As this year and some repeats of what we just had with lows being more intense and closer to the coast .  Problem is temps like in 97-98 but Feb looks plenty cold enough .

Anything but that.

[ensonerd1233e343]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

His forecasts include Enso consideration but it's mainly based on actual weather during this calendar year. The exact formula/considerations he has never disclosed. 

So its like which years had the most similar weather pattern to 2026 spring+summer? just so i understand