Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[WxUSAF]

22 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Yeah that is tasty looking, that makes me wonder what potential that may have for us back here in the Shenandoah Valley

I really have no idea where you live anymore lol

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I really have no idea where you live anymore lol

About 5 miles N of Winchester on the east side of 81

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

About 5 miles N of Winchester on the east side of 81

Cool, thanks Winchester 22

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Cool, thanks Winchester 22

Right you can only change your name once every 3000 days so ill change it in 2036 assuming I still live here or still live period

[bncho]

weenie euro snowfall maps thru Feb 2027

feast or famine

[mitchnick]

NDJ and DJF mean sea level pressure anomalies off 8/1 Euro seasonal. 

 

[Nomz]

59 minutes ago, bncho said:

weenie euro snowfall maps thru Feb 2027

feast or famine

54” winter CONFIRMED

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

weenie euro snowfall maps thru Feb 2027

feast or famine

e44 it is.

[CAPE]

Jan and esp Feb look quite acceptable on the latest run. Beginning of winter is likely gonna suck so who cares about the 3 month maps. Best chance for a big East coast snowstorm will probably be mid Jan to mid Feb, but Dec is(subjectively) a modest improvement at h5 over the July run.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

NDJ and DJF mean sea level pressure anomalies off 8/1 Euro seasonal. 

 

Yeah, give me a Super Nino STJ in -NAO/AO. I'm leaning towards above average snowfall right now. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, annunciated said:

Nice post. Record breaking El Nino it is! This Winter will be an interesting data point! I love extremes, gives a lot of information.

[TSSN+]

I’ll take Le tits now for 800.  

[annunciated]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

e44 it is.

Just for fun, could you do KFFC (Atlanta)? Copernicus hadn't updated their datasets yet so I can't fetch it.

[IronTy]

On 8/4/2026 at 2:17 PM, RIC_WX said:

72-73 84"
82-83 89"
97-98 106"
15-16 79"

My POV is generally the milder the winter, the less upslope hence most of the seasons are below average BUT likely more synoptic snow from actual SLP systems.  None of these winters are particularly cold by Garrett standards.  

I am personally expecting lots of rain, a handful of significant paste bombs, and significantly less wind / cold as compared to the last two consecutive seasons.  But the sample size isn't large and the fact we basically managed 80%-90% of climo in the strongest ENSO events in the data set is still pretty good.

I'll take those numbers.  Hoping for at least one big storm I can go up ahead of time for and get snowed in.  

[frd]

On 8/3/2026 at 2:23 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I've just been looking at 500mb daily maps and we've had 4 good low peaks in the arctic this Summer. I think the actual AO index is not as positive as the -H5. 

PNA is recovering finally after a negative start to August. Let's see if it continues! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Finally starting to get some N. Hemispheric response to El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since 1950, we have the Strongest El Nino on this date by +20%! That's equivalent to a Weak Nino vs 0.0 Neutral. As just above the 2nd place. 

Next Summer will be interesting to observe. This is the warm season after all El Nino analogs minus all La Nina analogs, this has nothing to do with global warming. (Summer 2027)

[WxUSAF]

Go to Kalshi and put all your money on 2027 being the warmest on record 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Go to Kalshi and put all your money on 2027 being the warmest on record 

RIP winter

[ravensrule]

On 8/5/2026 at 4:39 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, give me a Super Nino STJ in -NAO/AO. I'm leaning towards above average snowfall right now. 

Please talk dirty to me Chuck. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

41 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Please talk dirty to me Chuck. 

I don't think I've ever gone with above average snowfall since returning to the boards in 2017. I think 18-19 was showing some promise in the Fall but that winter was a disaster. I think whether we get above or below will depend on the AO/NAO this Winter. As long as signs are pointing to them being negative, you have to love the El Nino precip pattern. Unfortunately we've had something like 14 +NAO Winters in a row. The last 2 Winters have been -AO, so there has been some variation in that index. Also, global cold patterns are reversing hard right now. It snowed in Montana late June then a few weeks later Billings, MT hit an all-time high of 111 (beating previous record of 108). The last two DJF's were cold then March '26 was warmest everby a large margin. Same in March '25. A few days ago we had 5030dm in the arctic, now in a few days the same area makes it to 5700dm! It's "evening out" in a lot of cases. It may be really hard to below temps on a longer term mean, but there could be shorter periods of -AO with snow! 

[Terpeast]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't think I've ever gone with above average snowfall since returning to the boards in 2017. I think 18-19 was showing some promise in the Fall but that winter was a disaster. I think whether we get above or below will depend on the AO/NAO this Winter. As long as signs are pointing to them being negative, you have to love the El Nino precip pattern. Unfortunately we've had something like 14 +NAO Winters in a row. The last 2 Winters have been -AO, so there has been some variation in that index. Also, global cold patterns are reversing hard right now. It snowed in Montana late June then a few weeks later Billings, MT hit an all-time high of 111 (beating previous record of 108). The last two DJF's were cold then March '26 was warmest everby a large margin. Same in March '25. A few days ago we had 5030dm in the arctic, now in a few days the same area makes it to 5700dm! It's "evening out" in a lot of cases. It may be really hard to below temps on a longer term mean, but there could be shorter periods of -AO with snow! 

I agree with this. Although its getting warmer everywhere on average, we’re also seeing a lot more variance with wavier jet streams and stronger ridges that act as a double edged sword - bringing extreme heat underneath, and pulling down colder air from the upper latitudes of the ridges. This is a well researched and documented artifact of AGW. If we get periods of -AO/-NAO during this super nino, they should be very interesting. 

[nw baltimore wx]

I’ve got maybe 20 good years left. Let it snow. 

[frd]

 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

¡Excelente!

¿Dónde está febrero?

[frd]

8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

¡Excelente!

¿Dónde está febrero?

He did not post it, and I was lazy to dig further.  My bad.  

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

He did not post it, and I was lazy to dig further.  My bad.  

Well, clearly I’m more lazy than you.