CAPE Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM 53 minutes ago, CAPE said: "Super" is hyperbolic. Just like monstrous, Ludicrous, or 'Godzilla' Nino. Social media silliness. Official categories for strength of Nina/Nino events are- weak, moderate, strong , and very strong. My point is they are one in the same - If you take the chlorophyll out of 1 green leaf, it is X amount of chlorophyll "Weak". If you take the chlorophyll out of 5 green leaves, it is still 5x amount of chlorophyll "Super". Everyone thinks ENSO events are a different entity in different strengths. That's not true at all. It's true that where they are based or dominant makes a difference, but a "Super Nino" is not actually different from "Weak Nino" except that it's impact - on the same thing - is greater. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Tuesday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:50 PM Giga Nino 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 10:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:09 PM Fox weather says MONSTER Nino on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:12 PM 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Giga Nino Well, we got Mega at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 10:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:19 PM This definitely looks Giga 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Tuesday at 10:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:28 PM 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: This definitely looks Giga If we can't snow with that look it's time to Cloe the blinds for good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:34 PM 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: If we can't snow with that look it's time to Cloe the blinds for good Congrats NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted Tuesday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:44 PM 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: Well, we got Mega at least Mega: Make Elnino Great Again 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Tuesday at 11:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:49 PM 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: If we can't snow with that look it's time to Cloe the blinds for good We will be tired of the blizzards. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 10:48 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:48 AM I don't know how reliable the Severe Weather Europe site is but like the read on the upcoming winter forecast for the polar vortex. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-el-nino-polar-vortex-disruption-united-states-canada-europe-winter-2026-2027-fa/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:34 PM 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: I don't know how reliable the Severe Weather Europe site is but like the read on the upcoming winter forecast for the polar vortex. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-el-nino-polar-vortex-disruption-united-states-canada-europe-winter-2026-2027-fa/ I actually made a post over in the El Niño thread about the Cfs2 looking interesting at 10mb this winter, but I took it down figuring the usual suspects might accuse me of being a weenie...imagine that, me being accused as being a weenie? Lol Anyway, here was the 1/27 link I had posted. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2026070800&fh=6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 07:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:56 PM 5 hours ago, mitchnick said: I actually made a post over in the El Niño thread about the Cfs2 looking interesting at 10mb this winter, but I took it down figuring the usual suspects might accuse me of being a weenie...imagine that, me being accused as being a weenie? Lol Anyway, here was the 1/27 link I had posted. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2026070800&fh=6 With some of the hardcore warminstas in there, yeah anything positive posted (cold/snow) about the upcoming winter will probably earn you a weenie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted Wednesday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:16 PM 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: With some of the hardcore warminstas in there, yeah anything positive posted (cold/snow) about the upcoming winter will probably earn you a weenie. a certain poster mysteriously disappeared when millions of people got a massive blizzard in late february. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 01:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:37 PM On 7/7/2026 at 6:09 PM, CAPE said: Fox weather says MONSTER Nino on the way The poorly written, clickbait articles with dopey catch phrases are inbound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 01:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:51 PM 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The poorly written, clickbait articles with dopey catch phrases are inbound. Giga-Nino 2026!! Chad or Chud!?! Click to see if DC will be #snowmaxxing this winter!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 01:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:52 PM Just now, WxUSAF said: Giga-Nino 2026!! Chad or Chud!?! Click to see if DC will be #snowmaxxing this winter!!!! What time will the Category 5 Giga Chad El Nino kill my puppy? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted yesterday at 03:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:37 PM On 7/7/2026 at 6:19 PM, CAPE said: This definitely looks Giga 35 degree 5 inch rainstorm is gonna go so crazy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted yesterday at 03:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:38 PM Jokes aside aren’t we staring down a likely east based strong to very strong El Niño? I take climatology in the fall but my base teleconnections knowledge say that it won’t snow much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 04:42 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:42 PM The latest, issued today. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted yesterday at 06:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:35 PM 2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Jokes aside aren’t we staring down a likely east based strong to very strong El Niño? I take climatology in the fall but my base teleconnections knowledge say that it won’t snow much. my hunch is that there won't be much in terms of number of events but the boom potential always goes up in these years. HECS and nothing else is a distinct possibility think 1982-83 and 2015-16 (which are both good analogs) 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago +5c -PDO warm pool lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: my hunch is that there won't be much in terms of number of events but the boom potential always goes up in these years. HECS and nothing else is a distinct possibility think 1982-83 and 2015-16 (which are both good analogs) Agreed with this point. Talking about this at the office the other day a bit. I'm thinking juiced potential is very high within this scenario, so it will take timing cold shots. It might very well be a wet fall and winter, which I am completely fine with. We seriously need some precip around here. My time frame of interest is likely Jan and Feb for something more significant in these parts. I don't foresee any early threats which are not customary in a stronger Nino. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 21 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Jokes aside aren’t we staring down a likely east based strong to very strong El Niño? I take climatology in the fall but my base teleconnections knowledge say that it won’t snow much. Yes. Est based El Ninos are not favorable for snow in these parts. Prove me wrong atmosphere! 13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: +5c -PDO warm pool lol Never let Ji start a winter thread again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. Est based El Ninos are not favorable for snow in these parts. Prove me wrong atmosphere! Never let Ji start a winter thread again. 82/83 was east based or leaning per SSTA (some sites have maps that illistrate it better, but I don'thave any off hand), so no need to give up yet. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: 82/83 was east based or leaning per SSTA (some sites have maps that illistrate it better, but I don'thave any off hand), so no need to give up yet. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for That was a great winter, unfortunately only us two remember it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, ravensrule said: That was a great winter, unfortunately only us two remember it. 4" of snow at BWI between Noon and 1pm with constant thunder and lightning in the February blizzard. And I was out in with my brother pushing my uncle's van down the road so he could get home 5 miles away. Idk how he made it, but he did. Yeah, I remember it vividly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 22 minutes ago Share Posted 22 minutes ago 3 hours ago, ravensrule said: That was a great winter, unfortunately only us two remember it. I was a young then but I remember it vividly. Lived in Carroll county back then. It was basically just the Feb blizzard after an overall mild winter, but got very cold leading up to it and then rapidly warmed up right after and ended winter. That's the type of deal we could see this coming winter, the way things look right now. Similar to 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted 22 minutes ago Share Posted 22 minutes ago 40 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 4" of snow at BWI between Noon and 1pm with constant thunder and lightning in the February blizzard. And I was out in with my brother pushing my uncle's van down the road so he could get home 5 miles away. Idk how he made it, but he did. Yeah, I remember it vividly! My (Canadian) Dad (RIP) made a very similar report at the same time; pushing our neighbor's car in thunder-snow in Howard County. Said it was the heaviest snow he'd ever seen. (And, he was a guy who had seen a lot.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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