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Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential


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53 minutes ago, CAPE said:

"Super" is hyperbolic. Just like monstrous, Ludicrous, or 'Godzilla' Nino. Social media silliness.

Official categories for strength of Nina/Nino events are- weak, moderate, strong , and very strong.

My point is they are one in the same - If you take the chlorophyll out of 1 green leaf, it is X amount of chlorophyll "Weak". If you take the chlorophyll out of 5 green leaves, it is still 5x amount of chlorophyll "Super". Everyone thinks ENSO events are a different entity in different strengths. That's not true at all. It's true that where they are based or dominant makes a difference, but a "Super Nino" is not actually different from "Weak Nino" except that it's impact - on the same thing - is greater. 

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3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I don't know how reliable the Severe Weather Europe site is but like the read on the upcoming winter forecast for the polar vortex.
 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-el-nino-polar-vortex-disruption-united-states-canada-europe-winter-2026-2027-fa/

I actually made a post over in the El Niño thread about the Cfs2 looking interesting at 10mb this winter, but I  took it down figuring the usual suspects might accuse me of being a weenie...imagine that, me being accused as being a weenie? :ph34r: Lol

Anyway, here was the 1/27 link I  had posted.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2026070800&fh=6

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5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I actually made a post over in the El Niño thread about the Cfs2 looking interesting at 10mb this winter, but I  took it down figuring the usual suspects might accuse me of being a weenie...imagine that, me being accused as being a weenie? :ph34r: Lol

Anyway, here was the 1/27 link I  had posted.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2026070800&fh=6

With some of the hardcore warminstas in there, yeah anything positive posted (cold/snow) about the upcoming winter will probably earn you a weenie.

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20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

With some of the hardcore warminstas in there, yeah anything positive posted (cold/snow) about the upcoming winter will probably earn you a weenie.

a certain poster mysteriously disappeared when millions of people got a massive blizzard in late february.

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2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Jokes aside aren’t we staring down a likely east based strong to very strong El Niño? I take climatology in the fall but my base teleconnections knowledge say that it won’t snow much. 

my hunch is that there won't be much in terms of number of events but the boom potential always goes up in these years. HECS and nothing else is a distinct possibility

think 1982-83 and 2015-16 (which are both good analogs)

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