Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[SouthCoastMA]

shut out again, stuck on 0.33" for the month. Really need Monday to pan out

[mreaves]

My somewhat suspect PWS gauge has 2.66” this week. Stein would be welcome to visit for a short time up here. 

[Torch Tiger]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Cute cell. Not much rain but peas.

When the cell was maxing near S Wey. earler

[ineedsnow]

8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a top 5 hottest June lol 

Not for long 

[Layman]

Father’s Day / Solstice sunrise this morning in Rye, NH

[kdxken]

Looks wet tomorrow.

[dendrite]

Mesos are way north up here….globals SNE. Interesting.

[CoastalWx]

35 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mesos are way north up here….globals SNE. Interesting.

Models all over. I wonder if synoptic rains north and then another max near low track. Hrrr kind of had that. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro a region wide soaker dendrite south. These systems are so difficult to model. 

[Ginx snewx]

First Happy Happy Happy father's day 

Totals from 6z

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

First Happy Happy Happy father's day 

Totals from 6z

Can you post your app link again please.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Monday better not stein 

Like the 06z NAM ?

[powderfreak]

Over 3.5” past three days.

I see J.Spin is over 4.5”.

Mushrooms growing in the yard.

Mountain Operations station for Mansfield showing 5.47”… about 2” more than town, which fits with orographics and NW flow.

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro's been more and more leaning away from a strata rain look toward something more convectively distributed later Monday afternoon.  

That tells me that's capitulating over time and model runs, slowly toward less of synoptic forcing scenario - though some would likely remain/still be present with that. 

The NAM's most recent run could be N-W bias overall ... a failing not uncommon to that model as I've said 327 times over the last 20 years, and it gets conveniently forgotten when it is the only model showing a snow strike in an otherwise suppressed consensus.  

Anyway, that 06z NAM solution tries to warm sector SNE which strands the region on dry ground because the impetus for raining at all has always been PWAT flop over the antecedent cool/dry air in place type of deal.  If we warm wedge...that shuts off that mechanism.  The "cool" front then limps through with limited fan fair because mechanics are too weak.  wah waahhh.     GFS still offers the overrunning general wet hope ... albeit light.    

One aspect consistent with all guidance is that there is a PWAT anomaly being either pressed up against, or succeeding in overrunning ... that offers a higher mesoscale error in QPF because the convection uncertainty/placement.  Expecting some variability in results. 

Spectacular early summer weather Tuesday afternoon - Thurs. 

Bit of heat signal still looms ~29 - 3rd, and actually has become more significantly suggested in the numerical values of the telecon from all three sources.  However, the spatial/synoptic manifestation of that is still ( if ever ...) middling impression.  Euro wants to be west enough that we never taste it here.  

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr says let’s flood Madison nh again. 

[CoastalWx]

Could be some decent convection around Monday night with good MUCAPE in the warm sector. 

[Damage In Tolland]

What time does rain start? Is it tomorrow PM?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro and gfs are a nice rain here. We desperately need it 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What time does rain start? Is it tomorrow PM?

Seems like after 2-3 or so?  Might be very light to start. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like after 2-3 or so?  Might be very light to start. 

Been in Chicago all weekend. Need to mow tomorrow 

[SouthCoastMA]

Stein is embedded in the DNA of these systems. I'm not trusting any meaningful qpf being modeled here until I see it 

[SouthCoastMA]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro and gfs are a nice rain here. We desperately need it 

it's been awful here for 3 weeks. need it more than ever

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Stein is embedded in the DNA of these systems. I'm not trusting any meaningful qpf being modeled here until I see it 

Stein teased you with ltg over the water while he caressed you with his webbed hands.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's interesting how that thing's changed over the week running up to it ...    It was originally sort of weird quick coastal ( that looked dubious, admittedly), replete with a burst of NE flow and drilling rains ... Probably 60 F tops.   Now, it's more like it's just a humid disjointed morass with less structure overall. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interesting how that thing's changed over the week running up to it ...    It was originally sort of weird quick coastal ( that looked dubious, admittedly), replete with a burst of NE flow and drilling rains ... Probably 60 F tops.   Now, it's more like it's just a humid disjointed morass with less structure overall. 

Yeah I would expect the latter in the warm season but those can also produce big rains. 

[dendrite]

Just had a really close CG. Just getting grazed by a developing cell. 

[SJonesWX]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just had a really close CG. Just getting grazed by a developing cell. 

I hope that stuff stays east of me. Got the grill going and don’t want to stand out in the rain

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just had a really close CG. Just getting grazed by a developing cell. 

Lot of crispy tcu going up.  Can see your anvil bombs on the N-NW horizon.  Fun day

[Torch Tiger]

Crispy anvils and beers for all

[vortex95]

I wanted to follow up on a post I did a few weeks ago and comments I got from that post.

There is always lots of wx going on, domestically and globally.  Talking about it is fine.  Talking about high-end/impactful events is fine as well,  But when it is all lopsided on basically one thing w/ obvious hype and pushing agenda, that becomes an issue, not only from a scientific POV, but also a public POV.

Take these recent posts from a individual (I blocked out the name but it is not hard to figure out based on the graphics and the state mentioned most often)  What is posted by this individual is almost always on heat, nothing else (look this individual's sites yourself).  It's not just anomalous heat, it's typical heat, turning the ordinary into the extraordinary or making mountains out of molehills.

Look at the first attachment.  Head indices in FL this time of year 105-110 are normal almost every day in the summer.  And 110+ in TX is common this time of year.   Yet you get the headline "relentless heat" as if it is unusual or noteworthy?  That's like saying, "relentless sunshine" and hyping up UV risk. 

Also, this obsession w/ the term "heat dome."  First, that is made-up term for hype, nothing more.  Second, not every ridge of high pressure is hot.  Just b/c you have high 500 mb heights, does not necessarily translate to hot temps are the surface.  We don't live at 18,000 ft!  This is basic meteorology

And of course ridges of high pressure will exist by default in the subtropics and tropics this time of year. That's normal.  What would be noteworthy is if they didn't for any length of time!  This would like saying that having 1200 tornadoes annually in the U.S. is atypical when that is the avg or stating the polar vortex forms and impacts wx in the cool season is a "problem," when it does this every year.

The second image attached.  I find this analysis on changes in 100+ heat index days in FL highly suspect.  First, all value are multiples of ten.  A true scientific analysis would not have nice even numbers all like this.  Second, this ignores the heat island effect that is very pronounced in urban areas over the decades. And since most climate sites are close or in cities, this is the cherry-picking logical fallacy here.  Only 2% of the global land area is urbanized, so see the problem here?  This is distinct bias to promote a specific narrative more than anything.  That's bad science, and misleads the public.  Omission of facts is really no different than lying.

And I see praise at times for individuals like this such as, "makes great graphics" or "is a good communicator." or "is popular/well-known."  Yes, that is or can be true, but just b/c one does things great or is well-known, says nothing about one's credibility, skill, objectivity, or biases!