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Junorch obs and discussion 2026


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Euro's been more and more leaning away from a strata rain look toward something more convectively distributed later Monday afternoon.  

That tells me that's capitulating over time and model runs, slowly toward less of synoptic forcing scenario - though some would likely remain/still be present with that. 

The NAM's most recent run could be N-W bias overall ... a failing not uncommon to that model as I've said 327 times over the last 20 years, and it gets conveniently forgotten when it is the only model showing a snow strike in an otherwise suppressed consensus.  

Anyway, that 06z NAM solution tries to warm sector SNE which strands the region on dry ground because the impetus for raining at all has always been PWAT flop over the antecedent cool/dry air in place type of deal.  If we warm wedge...that shuts off that mechanism.  The "cool" front then limps through with limited fan fair because mechanics are too weak.  wah waahhh.     GFS still offers the overrunning general wet hope ... albeit light.    

One aspect consistent with all guidance is that there is a PWAT anomaly being either pressed up against, or succeeding in overrunning ... that offers a higher mesoscale error in QPF because the convection uncertainty/placement.  Expecting some variability in results. 

Spectacular early summer weather Tuesday afternoon - Thurs. 

Bit of heat signal still looms ~29 - 3rd, and actually has become more significantly suggested in the numerical values of the telecon from all three sources.  However, the spatial/synoptic manifestation of that is still ( if ever ...) middling impression.  Euro wants to be west enough that we never taste it here.  

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4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Stein is embedded in the DNA of these systems. I'm not trusting any meaningful qpf being modeled here until I see it 

Stein teased you with ltg over the water while he caressed you with his webbed hands.

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