Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[SouthCoastMA]

shut out again, stuck on 0.33" for the month. Really need Monday to pan out

[mreaves]

My somewhat suspect PWS gauge has 2.66” this week. Stein would be welcome to visit for a short time up here. 

[Torch Tiger]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Cute cell. Not much rain but peas.

When the cell was maxing near S Wey. earler

[ineedsnow]

8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a top 5 hottest June lol 

Not for long 

[Layman]

Father’s Day / Solstice sunrise this morning in Rye, NH

[kdxken]

Looks wet tomorrow.

[dendrite]

Mesos are way north up here….globals SNE. Interesting.

[CoastalWx]

35 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mesos are way north up here….globals SNE. Interesting.

Models all over. I wonder if synoptic rains north and then another max near low track. Hrrr kind of had that. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro a region wide soaker dendrite south. These systems are so difficult to model. 

[Ginx snewx]

First Happy Happy Happy father's day 

Totals from 6z

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

First Happy Happy Happy father's day 

Totals from 6z

Can you post your app link again please.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Monday better not stein 

Like the 06z NAM ?

[powderfreak]

Over 3.5” past three days.

I see J.Spin is over 4.5”.

Mushrooms growing in the yard.

Mountain Operations station for Mansfield showing 5.47”… about 2” more than town, which fits with orographics and NW flow.

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro's been more and more leaning away from a strata rain look toward something more convectively distributed later Monday afternoon.  

That tells me that's capitulating over time and model runs, slowly toward less of synoptic forcing scenario - though some would likely remain/still be present with that. 

The NAM's most recent run could be N-W bias overall ... a failing not uncommon to that model as I've said 327 times over the last 20 years, and it gets conveniently forgotten when it is the only model showing a snow strike in an otherwise suppressed consensus.  

Anyway, that 06z NAM solution tries to warm sector SNE which strands the region on dry ground because the impetus for raining at all has always been PWAT flop over the antecedent cool/dry air in place type of deal.  If we warm wedge...that shuts off that mechanism.  The "cool" front then limps through with limited fan fair because mechanics are too weak.  wah waahhh.     GFS still offers the overrunning general wet hope ... albeit light.    

One aspect consistent with all guidance is that there is a PWAT anomaly being either pressed up against, or succeeding in overrunning ... that offers a higher mesoscale error in QPF because the convection uncertainty/placement.  Expecting some variability in results. 

Spectacular early summer weather Tuesday afternoon - Thurs. 

Bit of heat signal still looms ~29 - 3rd, and actually has become more significantly suggested in the numerical values of the telecon from all three sources.  However, the spatial/synoptic manifestation of that is still ( if ever ...) middling impression.  Euro wants to be west enough that we never taste it here.