Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[OrangeCTWX]

Weirdly enough much less wind when the storm got here.  No lightning to speak of. But damn we got a lot of rain. Looks like about 2-3 inches per radar.  Lots of street flooding here in Saratoga .

[Nova737]

Congrats everyone else. As usual nothing expected here.  forecast for me only shows 11% chance of rain today.

[kdxken]

19 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Weirdly enough much less wind when the storm got here.  No lightning to speak of. But damn we got a lot of rain. Looks like about 2-3 inches per radar.  Lots of street flooding here in Saratoga .

Saratoga the thunderstorm deluge capital in the world. Every single time I'm there.

[kdxken]

Maybe a chance? 

 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Saratoga the thunderstorm deluge capital in the world. Every single time I'm there.

Growing up near ALB, I used to be furious every time Saratoga would get crushed.  Saratoga to Bennington County in VT was always the path of destruction.

[ineedsnow]

Sunderland vt needs a warning

[Brian5671]

What a bust.   Had a 1 minute shower early this morning.

[powderfreak]

Almost a half inch in 15 minutes as the line came through.

Just over 2” on the day.

[weatherwiz]

cells firing east or the Berk as the airmass begins to destabilize and MLCIN has eroded.

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Sunderland vt needs a warning

From this? 

 

[kdxken]

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, kdxken said:

From this? 

 

Saw it earlier looked good

[Brewbeer]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

What a bust.   Had a 1 minute shower early this morning.

try cologne 

mostly sunny and quite windy here, about as windy as this wind pit ever gets  

[weatherwiz]

Nothing is really standing out in terms of rotation. OF course much of this stuff is in some awful radar coverage but going up a tilt or so, nothing is really impressive so a sign anything llvl is probably minor as well. Don't think there is enough instability right now to really get something spinning.

May actually have to watch into Berkshire County...some higher sfc vorticity there per mesoanalysis with increasing 3km Cape. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Decent destabilization going on ... 77 to 80 suddenly with 66 dps.   Sun splashing and a nice llv S jet wobbling the trees.

any thunderstorms rollin into this will be set up with +helicity

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Nothing is really standing out in terms of rotation. OF course much of this stuff is in some awful radar coverage but going up a tilt or so, nothing is really impressive so a sign anything llvl is probably minor as well. Don't think there is enough instability right now to really get something spinning.

May actually have to watch into Berkshire County...some higher sfc vorticity there per mesoanalysis with increasing 3km Cape. 

yeah SPC mentioned 'low top' in their coverage.  I suspect they went tor out of respect for the llv jet in the area.

[Typhoon Tip]

This could be fun... we clearly have a warm frontal thrust/wedge now up to EEN and we're opening the skies to sun.  Temp popped 4-6F in the last hr west of ORH up through FIT and across my region.

79/67

 

[weatherwiz]

You gotta be careful with TVS in setups like this with very strong shear. I don't think Radarscope does this but these are probably elevated TVS signatures...so there are probably 2 or 3 bins (forget the minimum requirement...think its 3) on successive scans meeting shear threshold and above a certain distance above the ground.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This could be fun... we clearly have a warm frontal thrust/wedge now up to EEN and we're opening the skies to sun.  Temp popped 4-6F in the last hr west of ORH up through FIT and across my region.

79/67

 

Have to watch for rapid destabilization out ahead of the line given the sky conditions and rapid jump in temps...may have a similar affect to parcel acceleration that you would see with steeper lapse rates because the air is becoming less buoyant rapidly. 

[SJonesWX]

seems sketchy here. temp went up, DPwent up, and pretty breezy. now in a downpour. Hold me.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Have to watch for rapid destabilization out ahead of the line given the sky conditions and rapid jump in temps...may have a similar affect to parcel acceleration that you would see with steeper lapse rates because the air is becoming less buoyant rapidly. 

Just got my 80 ... 80/67   

rustling breeze with cracker alto strata and a few scud shred moving swiftly underneath.   Intervals of sun.   Actually feels like an tropical island morning. 

[Modfan2]

Congrats those north of the MA/CT line; limited rain over night and marine layer from southerly winds going to hurt my area

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just got my 80 ... 80/67   

rustling breeze with cracker alto strata and a few scud shred moving swiftly underneath.   Intervals of sun.   Actually feels like an tropical island morning. 

Bahama blues here. Great looking satellite out ahead of this stuff. Have to wonder though if that mid-level dry air moving in will really hurt, despite the building lower CAPE

[dendrite]

68/67 +SHRA

Nice tropical downpours in these showers. 

[Cyclone-68]

Mostly sunny here now 

[Typhoon Tip]

Dangerous heat signal on this Euro run...

GFS not as aggressive but hints.   Granted these are around the 1st of July, so it may just be eye candy for heat enthusiasts

[512high]

78/69....clouds 12mph/ gust 29mph