Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[vortex95]

04z HRRR suggesting "cells ahead of line."  So 1-2 punch for some areas.

Also, nice sliver of high 0-3km CAPE SNE and a second area for NNE.
 

[WxWatcher007]

4.97”/hr rain rate right now

[Modfan2]

Steined again… Hoping Monday can produce. Looks like today is a north of CT/MA deal.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Hmmm, CoastalWx and WxWiz be like "???????."  5% tor risk? How can this be?  No EML!  

Doesn’t matter. Meh here as usual. Congrats to the cows in VT.

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn’t matter. Meh here as usual. Congrats to the cows in VT.

"If it's not in Weymouth, it doesn't matter!"  What kind of attitude is that?

[vortex95]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn’t matter. Meh here as usual. Congrats to the cows in VT.

I don't know...

 

[Chrisrotary12]

Morning rain event canceled. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I don't know...

 

It’s better in NNE closer to forcing and 500 temps that aren’t a torch. Never was a debate there. 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully Monday maintains.

[kdxken]

0.15 of rain. It was odd hearing the rain. Been a while.

[vortex95]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s better in NNE closer to forcing and 500 temps that aren’t a torch. Never was a debate there. 

You are not paying attention.  Do you not see the isolated supercell to your W on the HRRR fcst I sent?

Very disappointing you are downplaying this event. 

[Modfan2]

31 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

You are not paying attention.  Do you not see the isolated supercell to your W on the HRRR fcst I sent?

Very disappointing you are downplaying this event. 

West like in Bennington VT or West like Walpole

[512high]

60F/ .10" in lull for now

[radarman]

Heading back to W MA this morning after moving to TX for business reasons. Could be the most exciting wx I've seen all spring.   With the nino we've had great lapse rates down there several times but hardly any shear.  Now we'll see if the opposite can produce.  Local pockets might be able to come up with a small amount of surface instability in the valley, kind of hope the line shows up a bit later than progged.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

You are not paying attention.  Do you not see the isolated supercell to your W on the HRRR fcst I sent?

Very disappointing you are downplaying this event. 

Paid plenty attention. Route 2 north is the best south of that hope for  a random cell. Never denied the shear wasn’t there, but coverage was meh. Congrats VT, NH, and ME.

[CoastalWx]

They even  canceled an afternoon event at the school here because of the stupid hype. 

[dendrite]

58.7° +RA

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Paid plenty attention. Route 2 north is the best south of that hope for  a random cell. Never denied the shear wasn’t there, but coverage was meh. Congrats VT, NH, and ME.

I need the rain desperately...hopefully some big storms pop up here.

[SouthCoastMA]

can't wait for my passing shower later that amounts to <0.03"

[ineedsnow]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Paid plenty attention. Route 2 north is the best south of that hope for  a random cell. Never denied the shear wasn’t there, but coverage was meh. Congrats VT, NH, and ME.

Sucks im not home for this one.. best of the season? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn’t matter. Meh here as usual. Congrats to the cows in VT.

 

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

"If it's not in Weymouth, it doesn't matter!"  What kind of attitude is that?

Lovers' quarrel?

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Lovers' quarrel?

While I can watch footage of impressive events for severe and snow, if it’s not near my backyard….tough for me to really be excited. As Felger would do…”finger in mouth” pop…whee..yay!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

While I can watch footage of impressive events for severe and snow, if it’s not near my backyard….tough for me to really be excited. As Felger would do…”finger in mouth” pop…whee..yay!!

I'm the same, completely, except for hurricanes.

[CoastalWx]

Especially for convection. I’m more excited when Ray gets 20” and I get 2” vs convection around these parts. Unless it’s a locked in deal. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm the same, completely, except for hurricanes.

Yeah I’m with you there. 

[jbenedet]

985 mb near Montreal is pretty damn impressive for mid June climo 

[jbenedet]

Here in the seacoast region of NH I’ve learned to take a negative bias for surface based forcing and a significant positive bias for mid level forcing. It didn’t come easy—many beatings—thanks to model guidance hoodwinking on days the sensible weather feels primed for severe…

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Especially for convection. I’m more excited when Ray gets 20” and I get 2” vs convection around these parts. Unless it’s a locked in deal. 

Convection just doesn't do much for me because the odds of anything noteworthy at any given location is just so low........I mean, what are the odds one of those rogue cells sets up over MBY....and furthermore, what are the odds said rogue cell offers anything more anomalous than some heavier rain and gusty winds. While the jackpot is inherently elusive, at least during major winter storms the noteworthy significant blanket of snowfall is pretty uniform. That is a worthwhile endeavor relative to the ill-fated summer rendition of pin the convective tail on the weenie.

[jbenedet]

I’m taking the severe risk today legitimately; seems we have all the general players positioned very well. Pretty textbook. Just need to have a good sky clearing after this current round of downpours.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’m taking the severe risk today legitimately; seems we have all the general players positioned very well. Pretty textbook. Just need to have a good sky clearing after this current round of downpours.

Seems a higher percentage play at your latitude from what I have gathered.