Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 hours ago, kdxken said:

Looking more likely we get the first heat wave of the year Thursday Friday Saturday.

Great, nice way to kick off the summer season. No prolonged big heat, but enough short burst big warmth to get the vibe rollin'.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'm really looking forward to 8 weeks of posts arguing if it will be 85F or 88F.   

It's summertime, let's enjoy it!

[CoastalWx]

Looks like some models are hinting at finally some warmth and dews possibly beyond mid month, which would start to make sense climatologically.

[Damage In Tolland]

Dewy

[dendrite]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dewy

[Typhoon Tip]

that would be a fascinating look on the 00z operational Euro if it were not 340 hours out ...  

quasi Bahama Blue pattern with a TC rollin' up inside the conveyor. 

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS is fighting warmth like it does ever spring and early summer.  

This recent series' of runs' technique was to pinch off the bottom the exiting trough into all of a 576 dm height low and act like that's sufficient to drive near gale east chilly flow into the M/A and commensurately destroying the sensible weather up and down the EC all next week.  

It's been showing all kinds of continuity issues with that scenario tho.   18z yesterday it pinched off almost no planetary scaled turd.  Yet a coffee break in model time later it goes and stinks up the whole works with this bs at 00z.   We'll see. 

Both the Euro, CMC and the ensembles of all three, EPS,GEPS and GEFs are less with that ordeal.   The only thing going for the GFS typical fuck it up for everyone by inventing physical math is that gee ... this spring has seemed to succeed at doing that anyway.  

Actually in fairness the 06z GFS was less shitty looking. But therein is an example of continuity issues.  I tend to think the GFS is over sensitive to curvature in the flow.  In both directions - perhaps an emergent property if not error of it's 'physical machinery'.  It seems to conserve too much when troughs are lifting out, and does these nip and tuck jobs too often.  On the other end, it ablates the latitude of ridges by fire-hosing polar jet velocities over top of the curvature like a stump grinder. It's subtle with this overall, but it's just enough to be annoying and one cannot unsee it once they get a sense of it happening with this model.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm really looking forward to 8 weeks of posts arguing if it will be 85F or 88F.   

It's summertime, let's enjoy it!

This summer looks like it's trying to be 75 or 78F but either way

[CoastalWx]

Monday through Wednesday next week looks a little on the cooler side and then I think gradually we may warm up a little after that.
Before that though, we may sneak in a low-grade heat wave especially inland. Typical downslope dandy dry stuff.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, mreaves said:

It was beautiful flying out of BTV this afternoon. 

If it were not for that plume of ass sludge out of a sewage pipe failure out there it's real cradle of life -

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If it were not for that plume of ass sludge out of a sewage pipe failure out there it's real cradle of life -

Ha, not sure that's what that is.  Lake Champlain isn't the cleanest at all, but that looks like sediment.

Had 1-2" of rain over the weekend and sharply elevated rivers, probably a sediment plume flushed out from one of the larger rivers?  Winnoski or Lamoille rivers need to be emptying around there somewhere depending on how he took off.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, not sure that's what that is.  Lake Champlain isn't the cleanest at all, but that looks like sediment.

Had 1-2" of rain over the weekend and sharply elevated rivers, probably a sediment plume flushed out from one of the larger rivers?

dunno.   I'd a just deferred to AI on that one. Asked it to remove feces smear and re-render it before going for splendor in social media

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

dunno.   I'd a just deferred to AI on that one and asked it to remove feces smear before going for splendor in social media

Those plumes from the rivers can go a long way… like when we have a good flooding event you’ll have folks out motoring around in boats thinking it’s nice, clear open water and run into a plume filled with debris and whole trees floating around in the lake.  Nothing like hitting a tree trunk at 40mph in a boat out in the middle of no where.

[Damage In Tolland]

59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They always do. Just like Father Time.. dewy’s undefeated

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh... reminds me of that meme years ago.   Very large aquarium wall, 4" of transparent aluminum glass on the other side of which this giant fluffy polar bear yawns and lazily slides off some prop for rocks and submerges itself in water sloshing like a fat kid in a bath tub.   The crowd of 4 to 8 year old onlookers together with their skyscraper moms and dads are in unison, oohs and ah chorus at this specter... Just then, the bear's paddling front feet make it look deliberate as it rotated it's equally giant ass axis pointed directly down the collective line of sight of said crowd, whereby it proceeded to all but instantly transform the clarity of the water into this putrid colored anal pall.  Beige ass vomit burst forth like that blow out scene in the film "Deep Horizon"... looked remarkably similar in color to that image above.   The chorus of ooh and ahs resolved the note of their song in something like ewes and oophs. 

Put that in your children's book.  Welcome to nature, kid -

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Looking pretty dry moving forward.

[cleetussnow]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... reminds me of that meme years ago.   Very large aquarium wall, 4" of transparent aluminum glass on the other side of which this giant fluffy polar bear yawns and lazily slides off some prop for rocks and submerges itself in water sloshing like a fat kid in a bath tub.   The crowd of 4 to 8 year old onlookers together with their skyscraper moms and dads are in unison, oohs and ah chorus at this specter... Just then, the bear's paddling front feet make it look deliberate as it rotated it's equally giant ass axis pointed directly down the collective line of sight of said crowd, whereby it proceeded to all but instantly transform the clarity of the water into this putrid colored anal pall.  Beige ass vomit burst forth like that blow out scene in the film "Deep Horizon"... looked remarkably similar in color to that image above.   The chorus of ooh and ahs resolved the note of their song in something like ewes and oophs. 

Put that in your children's book.  Welcome to nature, kid -

I thought bears shit in the woods.  
 

[Typhoon Tip]

wtf...  Firing Pelley from 60-Minutes is like dynamiting the face of Lincoln off the Rushmore of news journalism.

CBS?    no shit -

You know, this, coming so soon after the Colbert debacle.  And that bullshit with Trump instructing them a couple years ago and they all but happily obliged. 

All of which stinks to high heaven of an organization where you  'say what we want you to say else we'll fascistly wield our will'

In an idealistic vision, civility en masse boycotts anything that has CBS finger prints anywhere around it or on it, and points their TV and devices toward different antennas.  Let CBS' valuations deteriorate right before the kuntitudinal eyes of the organization's leader.  It just folds.  That's a flux of unemployment I would be just tickled pink in joy knowing was happening.   Then, set some other news/entertainment organization journalism on an ongoing investigation into the lives of all those upper management and exec ranked assholes, showcasing their travails in trying to find a toe-hold on anything in a society that knows what they're really about.   Welcome to the deserved sewer of society you pieces of shit.

 

[powderfreak]

39F to 67F by 9:40am.

Fast recovery.

[Torch Tiger]

8 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm really looking forward to 8 weeks of posts arguing if it will be 85F or 88F.   

It's summertime, let's enjoy it!

Far superior to arguing 38 or 43 nastiness in January..  or better, coating or 1-2"   what a waste

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Far superior to arguing 38 or 43 nastiness in January..  or better, coating or 1-2"   what a waste

Op ed.   I've always thought that was kind of ironic about winter vs summer group psychobabble when comparing the two disparate seasons in this particular social media. 

Who knows what the real numbers are ...something like 60/40 say of the average bloke preferring winter over summer? Sometimes I suspect it's steeper than that and can launch into a sardonic diatribe how/why. Heh.  But what's ironic is that there are fantastic summer events to track - this is after all a weather-related forum ( yeah...right).  The obvious response there would be, well ... 60+% don't find summer events very interesting. To that I would suggest the turn around time between events that make winter interesting - at all - is longer than the turn around time in what makes summer interesting.  

But they do...because when there is hail, or high wind, or flooding rain, or big heat... thread counts balloon just as well.  We've had slow summers. Sure.

This will undoubtedly trigger arguments from people who myelinate impressions and memories based on something other than objective numbers, be we observe summer-type phenomenon more frequently in summer.  More so than we observe events of winter ... in winter.    Although lately we can find value in the tongue-in-cheek that winters are turning into four months of autumn. A growing coherency that makes this even more ironic.

This is anecdotal so don't give one's self any wedgies over it, but I see more CB's on horizons and other fantastic cloud ops, heat in model ranges either home or abroad to the world, about as often as I'm also waiting weeks ...weeks sometimes in winter for anything at all to happen.   To me, winter's most successful repeating phenomenon is darkness.  Okay.  To each is his or her own.  One's preference is one's preference.  

And l do risk sounding hypocritical when I say, ...yeah, I like winter weather phenomenon ...when it happens.  Otherwise, I don't forgo my opportunities to track heat ( as an actual meteorological phenomenon, make especially relevant in CC), thunder and CB/cloud formations, a more revealing female population ... Disc Golf, standard Golf, boogie-boarding in the surf.  None of which can happen between January 5th and that teleconnector maybe-ims for late month that gets can-kicked to February 17th, and ends up screwing someone for some reason.   But at least it's dark by 4pm

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Op ed.   I've always thought that was kind of ironic about winter vs summer group psychobabble when comparing the two disparate seasons in this particular social media. 

Who knows what the real numbers are ...something like 60/40 say of the average bloke preferring winter over summer? Sometimes I suspect it's steeper than that and can launch into a sardonic diatribe how/why. Heh.  But what's ironic is that the turn around time between events that make winter interesting - at all - is longer than the turn around time in what makes summer interesting.   The obvious response there would be, well ... 60+% don't find summer events very interesting. 

But they do...because when there is hail, or high wind, or flooding rain, or big heat... thread counts balloon just as well.  We've had slow summers. Sure.

This will undoubtedly trigger arguments from people who myelinate impressions and memories based on something other than objective numbers, be we observe summer-type phenomenon more frequently in summer.  More so than we observe events of winter ... in winter.    All though lately we can find value in the tongue-in-cheek that winters are turning into four months of autumn. A growing coherency that makes this even more ironic.

This is anecdotal so don't give one's self any wedgies over it, but I see more CB's on horizons and other fantastic cloud ops, heat in model ranges either home or abroad to the world, about as often as I'm also waiting weeks ...weeks sometimes in winter for anything at all to happen.   To me, winter's most successful repeating phenomenon is darkness.  Okay.  To each is his or her own.  One's preference is one's preference.  

And l do risk sounding hypocritical when I say, ...yeah, I like winter weather phenomenon ...when it happens.  Otherwise, I don't forgo my opportunities to track heat ( as an actual meteorological phenomenon, make especially relevant in CC), thunder and CB/cloud formations, a scantily cloud woman, Golf and boogie-boarding in the surf.  None of which can happen between January 5th and that storms on the models for January 27th, that gets can-kicked to February 17th and ends up screwing someone for some reason.   But at least it's dark by 4pm

There is some child-like novelty to the first snow and holiday snows, and  occasionally interesting events, otherwise its just a beat down of darkness and nasty

[rclab]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Op ed.   I've always thought that was kind of ironic about winter vs summer group psychobabble when comparing the two disparate seasons in this particular social media. 

Who knows what the real numbers are ...something like 60/40 say of the average bloke preferring winter over summer? Sometimes I suspect it's steeper than that and can launch into a sardonic diatribe how/why. Heh.  But what's ironic is that the turn around time between events that make winter interesting - at all - is longer than the turn around time in what makes summer interesting.   The obvious response there would be, well ... 60+% don't find summer events very interesting. 

But they do...because when there is hail, or high wind, or flooding rain, or big heat... thread counts balloon just as well.  We've had slow summers. Sure.

This will undoubtedly trigger arguments from people who myelinate impressions and memories based on something other than objective numbers, be we observe summer-type phenomenon more frequently in summer.  More so than we observe events of winter ... in winter.    All though lately we can find value in the tongue-in-cheek that winters are turning into four months of autumn. A growing coherency that makes this even more ironic.

This is anecdotal so don't give one's self any wedgies over it, but I see more CB's on horizons and other fantastic cloud ops, heat in model ranges either home or abroad to the world, about as often as I'm also waiting weeks ...weeks sometimes in winter for anything at all to happen.   To me, winter's most successful repeating phenomenon is darkness.  Okay.  To each is his or her own.  One's preference is one's preference.  

And l do risk sounding hypocritical when I say, ...yeah, I like winter weather phenomenon ...when it happens.  Otherwise, I don't forgo my opportunities to track heat ( as an actual meteorological phenomenon, make especially relevant in CC), thunder and CB/cloud formations, a more revealing female population ... Disc Golf, standard Golf, boogie-boarding in the surf.  None of which can happen between January 5th and that teleconnector maybe-ims for late month that gets can-kicked to February 17th, and ends up screwing someone for some reason.   But at least it's dark by 4pm

Thank you Tip, I enjoyed the Op Ed. As a cement bound URI blessed denizen of the coastal plain I credit you with, sadly, a most accurate description of my cool/cold season, “four months of Autumn”. On the coastal plain this is less likely to be tongue-in-cheek. Unfortunately, as described by Hawkeye Pierce that Crab Apple Junction Maine has a white Christmas, beginning October 31st may also be less likely, nowadays. 
Still……. When the first real cold and threat of frozen, a flake, a mix and maybe accumulation appears, our local media, as do our forums, whoosh into a joyous anticipation.               
i, personally, find solace, in a calm warm summer night with gently falling showers. 
“Speak to me softly, like the rain” …… I still try to listen.  As always…..

[kdxken]

77° / 41° under clear blue skies. Doesn't get much better.