Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 hours ago, kdxken said:

Looking more likely we get the first heat wave of the year Thursday Friday Saturday.

Great, nice way to kick off the summer season. No prolonged big heat, but enough short burst big warmth to get the vibe rollin'.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'm really looking forward to 8 weeks of posts arguing if it will be 85F or 88F.   

It's summertime, let's enjoy it!

[CoastalWx]

Looks like some models are hinting at finally some warmth and dews possibly beyond mid month, which would start to make sense climatologically.

[Damage In Tolland]

Dewy

[dendrite]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dewy

[Typhoon Tip]

that would be a fascinating look on the 00z operational Euro if it were not 340 hours out ...  

quasi Bahama Blue pattern with a TC rollin' up inside the conveyor. 

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS is fighting warmth like it does ever spring and early summer.  

This recent series' of runs' technique was to pinch off the bottom the exiting trough into all of a 576 dm height low and act like that's sufficient to drive near gale east chilly flow into the M/A and commensurately destroying the sensible weather up and down the EC all next week.  

It's been showing all kinds of continuity issues with that scenario tho.   18z yesterday it pinched off almost no planetary scaled turd.  Yet a coffee break in model time later it goes and stinks up the whole works with this bs at 00z.   We'll see. 

Both the Euro, CMC and the ensembles of all three, EPS,GEPS and GEFs are less with that ordeal.   The only thing going for the GFS typical fuck it up for everyone by inventing physical math is that gee ... this spring has seemed to succeed at doing that anyway.  

Actually in fairness the 06z GFS was less shitty looking. But therein is an example of continuity issues.  I tend to think the GFS is over sensitive to curvature in the flow.  In both directions - perhaps an emergent property if not error of it's 'physical machinery'.  It seems to conserve too much when troughs are lifting out, and does these nip and tuck jobs too often.  On the other end, it ablates the latitude of ridges by fire-hosing polar jet velocities over top of the curvature like a stump grinder. It's subtle with this overall, but it's just enough to be annoying and one cannot unsee it once they get a sense of it happening with this model.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm really looking forward to 8 weeks of posts arguing if it will be 85F or 88F.   

It's summertime, let's enjoy it!

This summer looks like it's trying to be 75 or 78F but either way

[CoastalWx]

Monday through Wednesday next week looks a little on the cooler side and then I think gradually we may warm up a little after that.
Before that though, we may sneak in a low-grade heat wave especially inland. Typical downslope dandy dry stuff.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, mreaves said:

It was beautiful flying out of BTV this afternoon. 

If it were not for that plume of ass sludge out of a sewage pipe failure out there it's real cradle of life -

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If it were not for that plume of ass sludge out of a sewage pipe failure out there it's real cradle of life -

Ha, not sure that's what that is.  Lake Champlain isn't the cleanest at all, but that looks like sediment.

Had 1-2" of rain over the weekend and sharply elevated rivers, probably a sediment plume flushed out from one of the larger rivers?  Winnoski or Lamoille rivers need to be emptying around there somewhere depending on how he took off.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, not sure that's what that is.  Lake Champlain isn't the cleanest at all, but that looks like sediment.

Had 1-2" of rain over the weekend and sharply elevated rivers, probably a sediment plume flushed out from one of the larger rivers?

dunno.   I'd a just deferred to AI on that one. Asked it to remove feces smear and re-render it before going for splendor in social media

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

dunno.   I'd a just deferred to AI on that one and asked it to remove feces smear before going for splendor in social media

Those plumes from the rivers can go a long way… like when we have a good flooding event you’ll have folks out motoring around in boats thinking it’s nice, clear open water and run into a plume filled with debris and whole trees floating around in the lake.  Nothing like hitting a tree trunk at 40mph in a boat out in the middle of no where.

[Damage In Tolland]

59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They always do. Just like Father Time.. dewy’s undefeated

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh... reminds me of that meme years ago.   Very large aquarium wall, 4" of transparent aluminum glass on the other side of which this giant fluffy polar bear yawns and lazily slides off some prop for rocks and submerges itself in water sloshing like a fat kid in a bath tub.   The crowd of 4 to 8 year old onlookers together with their skyscraper moms and dads are in unison, oohs and ah chorus at this specter... Just then, the bear's paddling front feet make it look deliberate as it rotated it's equally giant ass axis pointed directly down the collective line of sight of said crowd, whereby it proceeded to all but instantly transform the clarity of the water into this putrid colored anal pall.  Beige ass vomit burst forth like that blow out scene in the film "Deep Horizon"... looked remarkably similar in color to that image above.   The chorus of ooh and ahs resolved the note of their song in something like ewes and oophs. 

Put that in your children's book.  Welcome to nature, kid -

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Looking pretty dry moving forward.