June 2026

[donsutherland1]

Fair and pleasantly warm conditions will prevail during the weekend. Highs will reach the lower 80s with some middle 80s across the region.

Monday and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on Monday. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall.

No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was +4.15 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.021 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8 (1.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs:
 

EWR: 85
BLM: 84
TEB: 84
New Brnswck: 84
JFK: 84
LGA: 84
ACY: 84
PHL: 84
TTN: 83
ISP: 82


NYC: 81  (despite the dryness the park has been well behind / below this year)

[Snowlover11]

We will see if Monday produces.

[SACRUS]

71 / 50 gorgeous day out there.  Weekend looks amazing.  Low - mid 80s.  Next shot at widespread rains/storms on Monday >0.75 - 2.00 inches - looking focussed northern areas.  Once passed monday trough into the northeast through the 27th but overall near normal.  Moderation warming by the close with next heat as ridge and heat expands beyond into the start of next month.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2012)
NYC: 98 (1923)
LGA: 98 (2012)
JFK: 94 (2012)


Lows:


EWR: 52 (1956)
NYC: 49 (1914)
LGA: 55 (1959)
JFK: 55 (2005)


Historical:

 

1682 - A major tornado ripped through southwestern Connecticut, passing through Stratford, Milford, and New Haven, and then into Long Island Sound. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1921 - Circle, MT, received 11.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state. The town of Circle received a total of 16.79 inches of rain that month to establish a rainfall record for any town in Montana for any month of the year. (The Weather Channel)

1928 - A farmer near Greensburg, KS, looked up into the heart of a tornado. He described its walls as rotating clouds lit with constant flashes of lightning and a strong gassy odor with a screaming, hissing sound . (The Weather Channel)

1956: A microburst caused a brief wind gust to 58 mph at Stapleton Airport. (Ref. Denver, CO Weather History)

1964 - A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois. A second squall line moved through during the early morning hours of the 21st, and a third one moved through shortly after dawn. The series of hailstorms caused nine million dollars damage. Hailstones as large as grapefruit caused heavy damage to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as five inches of rain in an eight hour period. (David Ludlum)

1975: Atlantic Beach, NC -- A man was killed on the beach by lightning. Lakeland, Fla.--A 16-year-old boy was killed instantly and his 16-year-old companion was injured when lightning struck a power line adjacent to a tree house in which the boys were located. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) (David Ludlum)
 

1987 - Thunderstorms prevailed east of the Rockies, producing severe weather in the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Colorado, and produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Goodland, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, and 104 degrees at Chicago, IL, equalled records for the month of June. Thunderstorms in North Dakota produced baseball size hail near Kief, and wind gusts to 100 mph near McGregor. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - An early morning thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 61 mph at Pierre, SD, and the hot thunderstorm winds raised the temperature from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 degrees by 1 AM, and 104 degrees by 2 AM. Butte, MT, and Yellowstone Park, WY, reported snow that afternoon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989:A meteorological "hot flash" hit Pierre. Descending air from collapsing thunderstorms caused the temperature in Pierre to warm from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 at one a.m. and to 104 at 2 a.m. Pierre's record high for the date of 105 degrees in 1974.


2000: Barrow, Alaska: The town of Barrow on Alaska's North Slope experiences its first recorded thunderstorm which dropped 0.16 inches of rain in just a couple minutes. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2001: Large hail driven by strong thunderstorm winds raked Denver International and front-range airports. Wind gusting to 54 mph along with hail as large as 2 inches in diameter punched at least 14 thousand holes and cracks in the flat roofs of several buildings at Denver International Airport. Also, 93 planes and hundreds of cars were damaged. About 100 flights had to be canceled stranding 1500 travelers. The Airport was completely shut down for about 20 minutes. The storm also damaged ground avoidance radar used to track planes on the ground to prevent collisions. Damage was estimated at 10 million dollars not counting the cost to the 93 airliners. The storm moved south and struck Watkins Colorado with hail as large as 2 1/2 inches in diameter and winds gusting to 60 mph. 

[Brian5671]

7 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

We will see if Monday produces.

Euro remains the wettest-GFS/Canadian a nice soaker too.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro remains the wettest-GFS/Canadian a nice soaker too.

For I-90, sure. Looks like it's bumping north. It's a summer SWFE. I guess the reservoirs are up north so that's something but it's looking like NYC/LI get skunked. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

For I-90, sure. Looks like it's bumping north. It's a summer SWFE. I guess the reservoirs are up north so that's something but it's looking like NYC/LI get skunked. 

Damn that really really sucks. Never want to rely strictly on convection. Even if you do get under decent convection with the ground parched it mostly runs off. We really want that strataform zone to trend south for a protracted soaking.


.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Damn that really really sucks. Never want to rely strictly on convection. Even if you do get under decent convection with the ground parched it mostly runs off. We really want that strataform zone to trend south for a protracted soaking.


.

I dont think its just convection. Looks pretty widespread and lasts 24 hours according to the gfs

[NEG NAO]

26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Damn that really really sucks. Never want to rely strictly on convection. Even if you do get under decent convection with the ground parched it mostly runs off. We really want that strataform zone to trend south for a protracted soaking.


.

IMO there is going to be a wide range of totals in the region - anywhere from a few inches (where T-storms occur) to less than an inch in unknown areas.

 

[bluewave]

All these days with stronger wind gusts continue dry things out. 2026 is currently in 2nd place for the highest average wind gust through June 19th behind 2025. So this dry and windy pattern has been very persistent the last few years.
 

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

All these days with stronger wind gusts continue dry things out. 2026 is currently in 2nd place for the highest average wind gust through June 19th behind 2025. So this dry and windy pattern has been very persistent the last few years.
 

 
 

Lots umbrellas flying at the beach today. Other then the wind it’s a 10/10 beach day.


.

[steve392]

Another gorgeous day. Winds blowing as usual. Hope it don't mess up the airshow today at Greenwood Lake Airport. 

[Picard]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO there is going to be a wide range of totals in the region - anywhere from a few inches (where T-storms occur) to less than an inch in unknown areas.

Possibly a split situation?  - A main area into NY state and another smaller area into south central PA into central NJ, with bupkis in between.  Both maps are suggestive, and it's happened plenty of times before.

[winterwx21]

12z Euro still looks good -- an inch to inch and a half for most of the area. GFS misses to the south with the heavier rain while RGEM misses to the north. Who knows at this point, but even the areas that miss the heavier rain should still get some. 

[MANDA]

40 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro still looks good -- an inch to inch and a half for most of the area. GFS misses to the south with the heavier rain while RGEM misses to the north. Who knows at this point, but even the areas that miss the heavier rain should still get some. 

I'm forecasting 1" with locally higher amounts along I-78 on northward at the moment.  We'll watch for subtle shifts.  At a minimum I think 1/2" - 1" looks pretty solid between the I-78 - I-90 corridor.  With locally higher amounts.

I'll be disappointed with anything under 1".    

Sunny parts of the lawn not reached by sprinklers are taking it on the chin.  Looking terrible.

If this keeps up much longer I'm worried NJ will issue mandatory restrictions and start banning all but essential irrigation as we head through July.

[SACRUS]

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Longest day of the year tomorrow!

[Prue11]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Sunny parts of the lawn not reached by sprinklers are taking it on the chin.  Looking terrible.

Same. Never seen it so bad this early. August sure, but not June 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Was this in any forecast?

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Yeesh. Almost every neighbor on our street is having some sort of party today. If these hold..

[FPizz]

18 minutes ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said:

Yeesh. Almost every neighbor on our street is having some sort of party today. If these hold..

Tons around here too.  

[donsutherland1]

The weekend will conclude with fair and warm conditions. Highs will mainly reach the lower 80s.

Monday and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on Monday into Monday night. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. 

No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -5.98 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.112 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7 (1.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Through today, JFK Airport has had an average high temperature of 82.50° while Central Park's average maximum temperature is 81.85°. The only June that saw JFK Airport record a higher average high temperature than Central Park was June 2015 when JFK Airport edged Central Park 78.53° to 78.50°.