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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion


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wpc_excessive_rainfall_day1.us_ne.thumb.png.e53d6ec9c9131ef5b41ea0b86675b539.png

..Mid-Atlantic...

Farther downstream, scattered to widespread heavy rainfall will be focusing along the wavy, east-west orientated frontal boundary draped over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and offshore south of Long Island. Back building/training of slow moving storms capable of hourly rates rates greater than 2 inches/hour will track across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey this evening. Guidance is signaling areal averages of 3 to 6 inches with local maximums of 8+ possible along this corridor.

The latest guidance maintains focus of the highest probabilities for the intense rain rates and higher QPF over central to eastern PA, portions of central to northern NJ, and far northern Maryland. The combination of some terrain areas and the highly urbanized corridor makes this area much more vulnerable to flash flooding.
While there remains some spatial uncertainty to exactly where the greatest rainfall will occur, the setup favors locally significant flash flooding with the Moderate Risk over eastern Pennsylvania and north/central New Jersey embedded in the Slight Risk that now spans from northeast Indiana and southeast Michigan (including
Detroit) through the Mid- Atlantic Coast from NYC to central Virginia.

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9 minutes ago, Newman said:

wpc_excessive_rainfall_day1.us_ne.thumb.png.e53d6ec9c9131ef5b41ea0b86675b539.png

..Mid-Atlantic...

Farther downstream, scattered to widespread heavy rainfall will be focusing along the wavy, east-west orientated frontal boundary draped over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and offshore south of Long Island. Back building/training of slow moving storms capable of hourly rates rates greater than 2 inches/hour will track across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey this evening. Guidance is signaling areal averages of 3 to 6 inches with local maximums of 8+ possible along this corridor.

The latest guidance maintains focus of the highest probabilities for the intense rain rates and higher QPF over central to eastern PA, portions of central to northern NJ, and far northern Maryland. The combination of some terrain areas and the highly urbanized corridor makes this area much more vulnerable to flash flooding.
While there remains some spatial uncertainty to exactly where the greatest rainfall will occur, the setup favors locally significant flash flooding with the Moderate Risk over eastern Pennsylvania and north/central New Jersey embedded in the Slight Risk that now spans from northeast Indiana and southeast Michigan (including
Detroit) through the Mid- Atlantic Coast from NYC to central Virginia.

This is what I was seeing last night as a potential for training t storms overe my area. I saw this similar setup in the 90,s. That's why I am concerned about down trees acting as debris dams in the flooded streambeds 5 + inches of rain will cause this to be a serious problem on major road bridges. Yes the rain is needed but not in 4 to 6 hours. Really. You should all drive around and look all the fallen dead trees in the streambeds now. It's horrific 

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Some rain totals from the storms last night. DEOS stations at Atglen 0.72" / Chester Springs 0.48" / Devault 0.66" / Glenmoore 0.60" / Kennett Square 0.42"/ Longwood Gardens 0.18" / West Bradford 0.51" / Nottingham 0.54" / Warwick 0.42" / West Chester 0.19"/ West Grove 0.13" / KMQS Airport 0.46"/ KOQN Airport 0.10 Our run of 90+ days should end today for most folks across the area. In fact looking ahead at least I suspect we may not see another 90-degree reading for the next 10 days. This week will feature below normal temperatures through Wednesday with highs tomorrow through midweek in the mid to upper 70's. It will however be a wet week with rain chances later today through Tomorrow night and again Thursday into Friday. The driest day looks to be Wednesday.

image.png.6c95ccf953e402467b418c2ceb054fb2.pngimage.thumb.png.50e8863174cc780a23dbb2f027f65f63.png

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2 hours ago, LVLion77 said:


If it was an nfl Sunday with the eagles playing, the power would already be restored.

 

PECO workers are striking.

 

2 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Interesting that they issued a heat advisory for today. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that here with a high in the 80s.

The criteria uses the heat index and duration of the heat event (and the dews have been horrible the past couple days, although at least not in the 80s yesterday or today like last week).

nws-mt-holly-heat-profuct criteria-07052026.jpg

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1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

This is what I was seeing last night as a potential for training t storms overe my area. I saw this similar setup in the 90,s. That's why I am concerned about down trees acting as debris dams in the flooded streambeds 5 + inches of rain will cause this to be a serious problem on major road bridges. Yes the rain is needed but not in 4 to 6 hours. Really. You should all drive around and look all the fallen dead trees in the streambeds now. It's horrific 

Has the Jordan Creek ever come close to flooding route 100 by Hoffman's garage or the KOA turnoff?

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Couple large limbs and branches down on our property from yesterday, but thankfully no damage.  My wildflower bed is hurting after the wind - the pitfalls of chaos gardening. 

CAMs printing some hefty rain totals over Long Island in the short range. 12”+ in some cases. Some big rain potential down this way too. Currently seems maxed out at 6-8” in isolated spots. 

I’ll just take some steady rain today please and thank you.

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2 hours ago, Voyager said:

Has the Jordan Creek ever come close to flooding route 100 by Hoffman's garage or the KOA turnoff?

Absolutely.  In fact that is where the dead ash tree  in the streambed is a series problem. . The culverts were blocked a year ago and padot got in trouble by padep for cleaning out the Jordan creek too well.

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9 minutes ago, Joshb32689 said:

Couple large limbs and branches down on our property from yesterday, but thankfully no damage.  My wildflower bed is hurting after the wind - the pitfalls of chaos gardening. 

CAMs printing some hefty rain totals over Long Island in the short range. 12”+ in some cases. Some big rain potential down this way too. Currently seems maxed out at 6-8” in isolated spots. 

I’ll just take some steady rain today please and thank you.

Thanks Ron.  Have a laughlvulin on me

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TS watches up (and there is a TOR NW of Harrisburg) - 

 

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-009-011-013-017-029-041-043-045-055-057-061-067-071-075-
077-087-091-099-101-107-133-060500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0465.260705T2245Z-260706T0500Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BEDFORD             BERKS
BLAIR                BUCKS               CHESTER
CUMBERLAND           DAUPHIN             DELAWARE
FRANKLIN             FULTON              HUNTINGDON
JUNIATA              LANCASTER           LEBANON
LEHIGH               MIFFLIN             MONTGOMERY
PERRY                PHILADELPHIA        SCHUYLKILL
YORK
$$

 

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-033-060500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0465.260705T2245Z-260706T0500Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BURLINGTON          CAMDEN
CAPE MAY             CUMBERLAND          GLOUCESTER
SALEM
$$

 

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DEC001-003-005-060500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0465.260705T2245Z-260706T0500Z/

DE
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT                 NEW CASTLE          SUSSEX
$$

 

I actually made it to 91 for a high and am currently at 85 with dp 75.

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6 minutes ago, LanghorneSnow said:

Can someone explain why this cell just kind of formed? It’s sitting over us and was genuinely caught off guard.

Just look at it as "the gift that keeps on giving", "one of those things" or "it is what it is" because you have more heading in your direction.

Someone may be able be provide a more weather based answer...

train.jpg

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10 minutes ago, LanghorneSnow said:

Can someone explain why this cell just kind of formed? It’s sitting over us and was genuinely caught off guard.

Sea breeze worked inland with some cells developing with its passage, then outflow enhanced the sea breeze front. Given the environmental conditions in place, the cells are slow moving and are tending to back build.

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22 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Sea breeze worked inland with some cells developing with its passage, then outflow enhanced the sea breeze front. Given the environmental conditions in place, the cells are slow moving and are tending to back build.

Thank you! Makes sense.

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28 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Just look at it as "the gift that keeps on giving", "one of those things" or "it is what it is" because you have more heading in your direction.

Someone may be able be provide a more weather based answer...

train.jpg

Believe me, I’m not complaining. My pup on the other hand has a had rough couple nights.

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