Noah get the boat, the wet pattern begins. Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range

[CAPE]

End of the month into early June is looking fantastic with temps in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s with mostly sunny skies.

I'll take this all summer. Maybe a pattern that could produce a Derecho as we head into July.

[WxUSAF]

That’s a really pleasant sensible weather pattern but also really dry lol

[frd]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

End of the month into early June is looking fantastic with temps in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s with mostly sunny skies.

I'll take this all summer. Maybe a pattern that could produce a Derecho as we head into July.

Crazy Omega block. Canadian wildlife potential, but nice here, can't wait ! 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Similarities to 2023 and later on in June in 1997. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Crazy Omega block. Canadian wildlife potential, but nice here, can't wait ! 

 

 

We smoke.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Why do I get the feeling that this was yet another one off that tricked us into thinking it’s the start of a sustained wet pattern…

 

Then again those dry maps stop mid next week and it’s just a relax before a reload.

[wxdude64]

18 hours ago, CAPE said:

End of the month into early June is looking fantastic with temps in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s with mostly sunny skies.

I'll take this all summer. Maybe a pattern that could produce a Derecho as we head into July.

Perfect conditions for the 'brown heavy haze' to return if that locks in for a while.

[JenkinsJinkies]

28 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Perfect conditions for the 'brown heavy haze' to return if that locks in for a while.

It's looking like it's lasting a week max.

[Weather Will]

Have not seen a PNA spike like this in quite awhile! (WB)

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS.  Spectacular Spring like week ahead.

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS weeklies for mid June to mid July: near normal temps and precipitation.

[wxmeddler]

44 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS.  Spectacular Spring like week ahead.

Neeeeed.

[Ruin]

On 5/26/2026 at 11:43 PM, JenkinsJinkies said:

Why do I get the feeling that this was yet another one off that tricked us into thinking it’s the start of a sustained wet pattern…

 

Then again those dry maps stop mid next week and it’s just a relax before a reload.

I keep hearing its dry and we are in a drought but wee have been very rainy last 3 months maybe a dry week every so often. I have water in my back yard 1 to 2 days after it rains anywhere over .25 that means that the water table is high due to it being rainy. I dont even live at the bottom of a hill I live on top of one in fact. I travel every week north east south in the state only place I see even a hint of brown grass was near phily. even during that crazy hot weather we had for a few days this month and earlier this spring didnt see it. 

[wxdude64]

5 hours ago, Ruin said:

I keep hearing its dry and we are in a drought but wee have been very rainy last 3 months maybe a dry week every so often. I have water in my back yard 1 to 2 days after it rains anywhere over .25 that means that the water table is high due to it being rainy. I dont even live at the bottom of a hill I live on top of one in fact. I travel every week north east south in the state only place I see even a hint of brown grass was near phily. even during that crazy hot weather we had for a few days this month and earlier this spring didnt see it. 

Mason/Dixon line has been a pretty sharp cut-off for the have's vs have-nots on precip prior to the past week. 

[SnowenOutThere]

6 hours ago, Ruin said:

I keep hearing its dry and we are in a drought but wee have been very rainy last 3 months maybe a dry week every so often. I have water in my back yard 1 to 2 days after it rains anywhere over .25 that means that the water table is high due to it being rainy. I dont even live at the bottom of a hill I live on top of one in fact. I travel every week north east south in the state only place I see even a hint of brown grass was near phily. even during that crazy hot weather we had for a few days this month and earlier this spring didnt see it. 

In the nicest way this is the mid atl forum, so I’m sure south central PA has a different weather experience the past few months. For 90% of us we have not had such luck. 

[RIC_WX]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

In the nicest way this is the mid atl forum, so I’m sure south central PA has a different weather experience the past few months. For 90% of us we have not had such luck. 

Its a sharp cutoff for sure.  Pittsburgh is at or above normal precip going back the past 12 months and YTD while areas as close as Western MD (actually on the southernmost edge of the PIT MSA) is solidly BN for the same period of time.

The headwaters of the N BranchPotomac rolling out of Garrett Co are at the highest after the past week of rain as any time in at least the past 12 months.

[stormy]

I have lost a lot of faith in the veracity of the U.S. Drought Monitor.

When it updated Thursday morning at 8:30, it kept Augusta County in Extreme Drought.   No way!

3 - 5 inches of rain in 8 days.  4.88" at my gauge.  Water table rising and only a few ft. below normal.

It would be a miscommunication to even say that we are abnormally dry at this time.  Maybe in a few weeks if no more rain, but not now.

[wxmeddler]

10 minutes ago, stormy said:

I have lost a lot of faith in the veracity of the U.S. Drought Monitor.

<snip>

The coordination between the people in Omaha and local monitors is not the best. Good news (at least in MD) but in other places, it is getting better... slowly. It usually takes 2-4 weeks for the drought monitor to "catch up" and even then they are very hesitant to take areas out of drought. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Still doesn't seem like a wet pattern. I'm sure El Nino will give us a boost, but in the long run we may go drier. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here you go guys

June El Nino analogs

[stormy]

2 hours ago, wxmeddler said:

The coordination between the people in Omaha and local monitors is not the best. Good news (at least in MD) but in other places, it is getting better... slowly. It usually takes 2-4 weeks for the drought monitor to "catch up" and even then they are very hesitant to take areas out of drought. 

I really appreciate your information.   It reveals my expectations.......................   There is a slow "catch up " time and even then a reluctance to downgrade drought..  

[stormy]

We are not going to really feel the coming El Nino until Oct. - Jan   This period will almost certainly be wetter than normal.

Other stuff is a crapshoot,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, stormy said:

We are not going to really feel the coming El Nino until Oct. - Jan   This period will almost certainly be wetter than normal.

Other stuff is a crapshoot,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Just curious- what do the 30 commas represent? Wouldn't a simple full stop suffice?

[Ruin]

10 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

In the nicest way this is the mid atl forum, so I’m sure south central PA has a different weather experience the past few months. For 90% of us we have not had such luck. 

I drive a lot between both jobs and I like to go on trips just day ones when im off just to drive. I havent seen 1 area in PA that was dry as in brow grass or not as green grass except philly. Ive been all over the state too.

[stormy]

15 hours ago, CAPE said:

Just curious- what do the 30 commas represent? Wouldn't a simple full stop suffice?

You are very observant!  Congratulations.  The comma's should have been periods. Wrong key.

I have a bad habit of periods after a finished sentence to emphasize full stop after an unusual statement.  

[BlizzardNole]

Here are the rainfall totals since January for closest station to me (PAX River).  We'd need to have over 2.5" per month above normal for each of those three months to break even for the year.   Not likely.

Jan:  2.87, departure of -0.04

Feb:  2.30, departure of -0.54

Mar:  1.63, departure of -2.37

Apr:  0.88, departure of -2.80

May:  1.51, departure of -1.92

[Paleocene]

2 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

Here are the rainfall totals since January for closest station to me (PAX River).  We'd need to have over 2.5" per month above normal for each of those three months to break even for the year.   Not likely.

Jan:  2.87, departure of -0.04

Feb:  2.30, departure of -0.54

Mar:  1.63, departure of -2.37

Apr:  0.88, departure of -2.80

May:  1.51, departure of -1.92

Those March through May numbers are rough. Hope the El nino juice heads your way

[IronTy]

Not sure about an Ark, maybe a sailboat?  That's if all the bodies of water don't dry up first. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Those March through May numbers are rough. Hope the El nino juice heads your way

It will probably take a few months before coupling to the atmosphere has a meaningful impact on midlatitude weather patterns. Late Summer, early Fall maybe?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

May-June has a pretty good STJ correlation in Developing Nino's