May 2026

[SACRUS]

55 / 32 after a high of 80 yesterday.  Cool next 5 days with clouds / showers the theme.  Upper cutof low moves through Thu - Fri.  Brunt of rain 0.5 - 1.00 in the wettest case is Wed - Thu and Fri.   By Saturday moderation to a warmer period is beginning.  Much above in the 5 /17 - 5/24 >80 / next 90s with peristent ridge/warmth beyond there.  

[SACRUS]

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1993)
NYC: 92 (1993)
LGA: 96 (1953)
JFK: 85 (1993)

Lows:

EWR: 36 (1966)
NYC: 36 (1966)
LGA: 42 (1945)
JFK: 40 (1966)

 

Historical:

 

1865: A tornado touched down in Philadelphia around 6 PM ET, killing one person and injuring 15 others. There was a considerable destruction of property, with 23 houses blown down, damage to the Reading Railroad depot, with the water tank, carried 150 yards. Fairmont Park was damaged to the amount of $20,000. 

1882: A severe thunderstorm produced 58 mph wind gusts at the Delaware Breakwater. High tides swept away railroad tracks near Sandy Hook, NJ. Many ships were sent aground in New York Bay. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1906: 33 °F is the lowest temperature in May for Washington, DC that rose to 67 °F in the afternoon, and to 79 °F on the 12th. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1911: Record maximum temperature for Washington, DC for the date 94 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1913: Frost occurred with 37 °F in Washington, DC, Frederick, Md had 30 °F and Baltimore, MD had 40 °F.
 

1934: A tremendous dust storm affected the Plains as the Dust Bowl era was in full swing. According to The New York Times, dust "lodged itself in the eyes and throats of weeping and coughing New Yorkers," and even ships some 300 miles offshore sawdust collect on their decks.

 

1945: On May 10th and 11th 10.0 inches or more of snow fell over interior Massachusetts and the lowest barometric pressure for the month of May was recorded at 29.09 inches of mercury.

 

1951: Baltimore, MD recorded their latest snowfall on record with a trace.

1953 - A tornado hit Waco, TX, killing 114 persons and burying some downtown streets under five feet of fallen bricks. (The Weather Channel)

1966 - The 1.6 inch snow at Chicago, IL, was their latest measurable snow of record. Previously the record was 3.7 inches on the 1st and 2nd of May set in 1940. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - A very powerful tornado struck the city of Lubbock, TX, killing 26 persons, injuring more than 500 others, and causing 135 million dollars damage. It was the most destructive tornado of record up until that time, and came on the 17th anniversary of the twister which struck Waco TX killing 114 persons. A second tornado killed two others persons in Lubbock, and the two tornadoes damaged or destroyed nearly a quarter of the city. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1982: The second of three severe weather episodes occurred on this date through the 12th across parts of Oklahoma. On this date, severe thunderstorms produced 18 tornadoes across the western part of the state. One tornado touched down southeast of Altus and moved across Altus Air Force Base. In Altus, almost every roof in town was damaged by large hail. At the base, 70 buildings were damaged or destroyed, 30 airplanes were damaged, and 6,000 vehicles suffered hail or tornado damage. Overall, two people were killed, 60 others injured, and the total damage from this particular storm was more than $200 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983: A late spring snowstorm hit the western third of South Dakota on this date through the 12th. Snow amounts ranged from 3 to 10 inches and in some areas the snow was accompanied by thunder, lightning, sleet, and hail making for an interesting mix of weather. The heaviest snow amounts fell in the northern Black Hills although some areas in the plains had strong winds creating drifts high enough to make roads impassable. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - Early morning thunderstorms produced up to four inches of rain in southern Texas, with flooding reported from Maverick County to Eagle Pass. Evening thunderstorms in northern Illinois produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Reno, NV, reported a record high of 89 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the High Plains Region. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 71 mph at Gillette WY, and baseball size hail was reported at Pecos TX and Fort Stockton TX. Fort Stockton TX was deluged with 7.75 inches of rain in less than two hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Unseasonably cold weather followed in the wake of a spring storm in the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 29 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Kansas, Oklahoma and the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Texas, and produced high winds which overturned four mobile homes northwest of Abilene TX injuring ten persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Strong thunderstorms affected parts of the U.S. Great Plains. In the Hastings, Nebraska area, significant severe weather occurred, including very large hail, damaging winds and widespread flooding. Radar estimated rainfall accumulation locally exceeded 10 inches.


2005: Grand Island, NE set new 6, 12, and 24 hour rainfall records with 6.38 inches in 6 hours, 7.16 inches in 12 hours and 7.21 inches in 24 hours. Very heavy rain also fell in parts of northern Montana. Red Lodge and the surrounding foothills received 4.5 to 7 inches washing out some roads. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see what the pattern does in June following the mid to late May warm up.

So far it appears we are in a pattern similar the warmer 2015 El Niño mid to late May as opposed to the cooler 2023 one.

The 2015 analog is showing up on the day 8-14 analog composite. 2015 was a warmer summer here than 2023 was. 

 

New York, Climate Division 4 Average Temperature

June-August higher ranks warmer with 2010 ranking #131 warmest 

June-August 2025 73.2°F 120*

June-August 2024 74.0°F 127

June-August 2023 72.2°F 103

June-August 2022 74.1°F 128

June-August 2021 73.4°F 123*

June-August 2020 74.3°F 130

June-August 2019 73.2°F 120*

June-August 2018 73.4°F 123*

June-August 2017 71.9°F 97*

June-August 2016 74.2°F 129

June-August 2015 73.1°F 118

June-August 2014 71.6°F 92*

June-August 2013 72.9°F 115*

June-August 2012 73.4°F 123*

June-August 2011 73.9°F 126*

June-August 2010 75.2°F 131

June-August 2009 70.7°F 64*

June-August 2008 72.5°F 108*

June-August 2007 71.6°F 92*

June-August 2006 73.0°F 117*

June-August 2005 73.9°F 126*

June-August 2004 70.6°F 62*

June-August 2003 71.7°F 94*

June-August 2002 72.9°F 115

* June-August 2001 72.0°F 100*

June-August 2000 69.8°F 33

 

[Stormlover74]

Models showing a pretty rainy Wednesday Thursday period. Let's see if it holds or fizzles

[SACRUS]

 

SST Anomaly

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Ridging building in 5.17 - beyond next shot at 90s  5/17 - 5/24 - beyond

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Ridging building in 5.17 - beyond next shot at 90s  5/17 - 5/24 - beyond

 

If we get a 90-degree day in May, this spring would be the first ever to get an 80 in March, and a 90 in both April and May, correct?

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we get a 90-degree day in May, this spring would be the first ever to get an 80 in March, and a 90 in both April and May, correct?

in NYC? Its happened in EWR - NJ.  Ill have to check

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we get a 90-degree day in May, this spring would be the first ever to get an 80 in March, and a 90 in both April and May, correct?

Other stations have done it further back in time with Caldwell being the most recent in 2021.

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2021

84

90

91

91

 

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see what the pattern does in June following the mid to late May warm up.

So far it appears we are in a pattern similar the warmer 2015 El Niño mid to late May as opposed to the cooler 2023 one.

The 2015 analog is showing up on the day 8-14 analog composite. 2015 was a warmer summer here than 2023 was. 

 

New York, Climate Division 4 Average Temperature

June-August higher ranks warmer with 2010 ranking #131 warmest 

June-August 2025 73.2°F 120*

June-August 2024 74.0°F 127

June-August 2023 72.2°F 103

June-August 2022 74.1°F 128

June-August 2021 73.4°F 123*

June-August 2020 74.3°F 130

June-August 2019 73.2°F 120*

June-August 2018 73.4°F 123*

June-August 2017 71.9°F 97*

June-August 2016 74.2°F 129

June-August 2015 73.1°F 118

June-August 2014 71.6°F 92*

June-August 2013 72.9°F 115*

June-August 2012 73.4°F 123*

June-August 2011 73.9°F 126*

June-August 2010 75.2°F 131

June-August 2009 70.7°F 64*

June-August 2008 72.5°F 108*

June-August 2007 71.6°F 92*

June-August 2006 73.0°F 117*

June-August 2005 73.9°F 126*

June-August 2004 70.6°F 62*

June-August 2003 71.7°F 94*

June-August 2002 72.9°F 115

* June-August 2001 72.0°F 100*

June-August 2000 69.8°F 33

 

hey bluewave how was the 2015 summer? was it hot, average or cooler than normal?

[SACRUS]

2015 # of 90 degree
 

 

 

2015:


PHL: 37 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1; Jun: 7; Jul: 10; Aug: 12; Sep: 7
EWR: 35 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2; Jun 4; Jul: 11; Aug: 13; Sep: 5
TTN: 27 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2; Jun: 4; Jul: 6; Aug: 9; Sep: 6
LGA: 20 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun:3; Jul : 6; Aug: 8; Sep: 3
ACY: 21 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 4; Aug: 8; Sep: 3
TEB: 38 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun : 5; Jul: 8; Aug: 12; Sep: 8
NYC: 20 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul: 5 ; Aug: 8; Sep: 6
JFK: 12 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul:3 ; Aug: 6; Sep: 2
ISP: 7 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 0 ; Jul: 3 ; Aug: 2; Sep: 2

New Brunswick: 36 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 11; Aug: 14; Sep: 6


89 Degree Days:

TEB: 7
TTN: 4
PHL: 10
New Brunswick: 10
EWR: 6
NYC: 8
ACY: 9
JFK: 9
LGA: 7

ISP: 2

 

 

The year/summer was warm ad had the record for most 80 or >80 degree days in many spots. or top 3 in most others.

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

SST Anomaly

 

 

 

So is the cold pool off our coast a result of this past seasonably cold winter, of more of a stronger Labrador current? Or perhaps upwelling?

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

So is the cold pool off our coast a result of this past seasonably cold winter, of more of a stronger Labrador current? Or perhaps upwelling?

I think its a combination of all three.  Its been lingering there for a bit, we'll see it shrink towards late June 

[donsutherland1]

Much of this week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible on Thursday as a warm front moves northward. There remains a risk that the front could stall for a time. Friday could see temperatures return to the 70° or above should the front clear the region. It will turn warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. 

In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks.

The SOI was -9.25 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.922 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (near normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Wannabehippie]

10 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

SST Anomaly

 

 

 

Below normal temps in the gulf stream? I wonder what that will do to the weather in Europe.

 

[nycwinter]

18 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Below normal temps in the gulf stream? I wonder what that will do to the weather in Europe.

 

nothing unless gulf stream stops moving..

[ForestHillWx]

Chilly morning out this way… but beautiful blue skies. 

[SACRUS]

55 / 31 sunny.  Nicest day of the next 3 still a bit below normal but a pleasant mid - upper 60s.  Clouds showers back Wed  - Thu and rain looks in the 0.5 - 1.0 range in the wettest scenario.  Clearing out as the closed upper trough rolls through.  Much warmer by Sat and into next week with above to much above normal >80 and some 90s potentially.  Beyond there overall warmer perhaps some onshore influence especially at the coast/beaches.  But overall ridging into the east 5/17 - beyond.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (1959)
NYC: 93 (1881)
LGA: 88 (1991)
JFK: 89 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 40 (1938)
 NYC: 40 (1907)
LGA: 43 (1940)
JFK: 43 (2020)


Historical:

 

1760:  Ben Franklin was the first person to identify nor'easters. In a letter on this date, Franklin described an experience that happened to him in November 1743 when storm clouds in Philadelphia blocked his view of an eclipse. Franklin assumed that the storm had blown in from the northeast because the surface winds at his location were from that direction. He was puzzled to find out later that his brother had viewed the eclipse with no problems and that the storm had arrived in Boston four hours later. The information caused Franklin to correctly surmise that the storm had moved from southwest to northeast.

 

1834: Unusual snows occurred across the Northeast. 6 inches fell at Erie, PA and 12 inches at Rutland, VT from this date through the 15th.
 

1876:  The first American newspaper weather map was published in the New York Herald. Weather maps would first appear on a regular basis beginning on May 9, 1879 in the New York Daily Graphic.

1886: A tornado, which peaked at F4 intensity, touched down in Vermilion County near Armstrong, and passed between Alvin and Rossville before moving into Indiana. At least 5 houses were destroyed, two of which were totally swept away. Three people were killed. Five other strong tornadoes occurred across Illinois that day: two near Mt. Carroll, one near Odell, one near Jacksonville, and one in Iroquois County.
A tornado killed 57 people as it passed through Greene and Huron Counties of Ohio leaving 43 dead in Xenia. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1914: Record maximum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 93 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1929: One of Virginia's worst tornado on record occurred on this date. 6 tornadoes touched down, including two west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, killing 22 people and destroying 4 schools. 13 of the victims were killed at Rye Cove in Scott County. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1934 - A dust storm darkened skies from Oklahoma to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum)

1971 - Duststorms suddenly reduced visibilities to near zero on Interstate Highway 10 near Casa Grande AZ. Chain reaction accidents involving cars and trucks resulted, killing seven persons. (The Weather Channel)

1972 - In Texas, A cloudburst dumped sixteen inches of rain north of New Braunfels sending a thirty foot wall of water down Blueders Creek into the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers washing away people, houses and automobiles. The flood claimed 18 lives and caused more than twenty million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1980: Cheyenne, WY received 3.8 inches of snow. It turned out to be the last snow of the 1979-80 season which produced a record 121.5 inches of snowfall. On the same day Scottsbluff, NE received just under an inch of snow (0.8 inches) which brought their snow season to an end with a record 78.5 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1982 - A late season snowstorm struck the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies. The storm produced 46 inches of snow at Coal Creek Canyon, located near Boulder. (David Ludlum)

1983: Heavy wet snow fell on this date through the 12th across parts of Montana. Snowfall totals included: Pryor: 22 inches, Melstone: 19 inches, Hysham: 18 inches, Broadus: 17 inches, Red Lodge: 16 inches, Plevna: 15 inches, Columbus: 14 inches, Nye: 13 inches, Baker: 13 inches, Billings: 12 inches, Forsyth: 12 inches and Miles City: 12 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - A heat wave persisted in central California. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Fresno CA and 102 degrees at Sacramento CA were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the western U.S. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Pendleton OR with a high of 92 degrees and Phoenix AZ with a reading of 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system stalled over New York State drenched Portland ME with 4.50 inches of rain in 24 hours. Rains of 5 to 7 inches soaked the state of Maine over a four day period causing 1.3 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Texas and the Central Gulf Coast States into Missouri and Illinois. Thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes, including one which injured four persons at Doloroso MS. Thunderstorms also produced hail three inches in diameter west of Vicksburg MS, and wind gusts to 83 mph in southern Illinois, north of Vevay Park and at the Coles County Airport. High winds and heavy rain caused 1.6 million dollars crop damage in Calhoun County IL, and in southeastern Louisiana, Saint Joseph was deluged with eight inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1997: A towering tornado ripped its way through the middle of Miami, Biscayne Bay and Miami Beach right after lunch Monday, smashing cars and windows, tossing trees skyward and scaring the dickens out of thousands of people. (Ref. Miami, Biscayne Bay Tornado Story with the Tornado Image)

2000: Severe thunderstorms produced hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter from Eureka to Roanoke, causing $300,000 damage to 100 cars. This was part of a cluster of severe thunderstorms, producing hail in a large area from the Illinois River to the Indiana border. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[IrishRob17]

29 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Chilly morning out this way… but beautiful blue skies. 

The low was a bit cooler than expected here, got down to 35, up to 51 now.

[FPizz]

38 here.  Maybe last 30s for a few months

[gravitylover]

A couple hundred foot difference in about a half mile was a 10° difference in the low temp, 40 vs 50. Looks like I got to 48.

[MANDA]

34 minutes ago, FPizz said:

38 here.  Maybe last 30s for a few months

 

Sampling of the coldest NJ lows this morning.

Likely not another morning with this kind of areawide chill until late September or October.  

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

 

Sampling of the coldest NJ lows this morning.

Likely not another morning with this kind of areawide chill until late September or October.  

Yeah should be good for awhile. Early June and late August can be sneaky but I think we're entering summer mode.  You'll start to see dews increasing as well which will keep it warmer at night too.

[ForestHillWx]

I think I’d rather pay the natty gas bill to take morning chill out over the electric bill when the AC cranks on those high dews, but considering it’s almost mid-May, it’s getting to be about that time….

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

I think I’d rather pay the natty gas bill to take morning chill out over the electric bill when the AC cranks on those high dews, but considering it’s almost mid-May, it’s getting to be about that time….

Not looking forward to months of AC but that's the way it goes.  Much rather have the windows open a bit at night and be under the blankets.  That will be coming to an end soon enough.

 

[nycwinter]

20 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Not looking forward to months of AC but that's the way it goes.  Much rather have the windows open a bit at night and be under the blankets.  That will be coming to an end soon enough.

 

i would have my windows open at night with temps in the 40's under blanket because to much heat lol..

[nycwinter]

time to man up summer is coming fast before you even blink the cool breezes of fall will soon return..

[donsutherland1]

Much of this week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible on Thursday as a warm front moves northward. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. The warmth will likely continue into early next week.

In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks.

The SOI was -11.78 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.980 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (near normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[FPizz]

https://x.com/i/status/2054307314606186925

No more Nams, sref, href, etc come Aug 31.  Rrfs taking over.