May 2026

[steve392]

Spurts if heavy rain down here in Monmouth County. Rain looks to probably miss most of this area.  Sussex county getting a much needed soaking g. 

[psv88]

Got my son’s baseball game in just in time. Showers now and 0.16” so far. 

[bkviking]

Off and on rain but 3rd bout of heavy rain in past hour in Port Jefferson. Seems like a lit up red line on radar keeps training over my area. Gonna be some big totals from this..

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I expect another baseline temperature jump this year. The amount of heat release in the pacific is going to be astronomical. The cpac hurricane and wpac typhoon seasons should be historic.


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Yeah, barring a major volcanic event happening really soon (like Pinatubo did in mid-June just before a robust el nino), I think most of us can agree that there will be another baseline temperature jump coming. 

[psv88]

Nice downpour. 0.86”

[psv88]

Overperformer out here. Up to 0.93” with more to come. Wasn’t expecting an inch plus 

[donsutherland1]

After some additional rain and showers tonight into early tomorrow, tomorrow will turn noticeably warmer under variably cloudy skies. Highs will likely top out in the middle 70s. Some additional showers and a thundershower are possible late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall.

Much of next week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible Thursday and Friday as a frontal boundary stalls near the region. Warmer air could arrive during the weekend.

In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was +6.07 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.659 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.5° (0.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[FPizz]

.11" bust. Sunny now